Stroke, Vol 22, 312-318, Copyright © 1991 by American Heart Association
PA Wolf, RB D'Agostino, AJ Belanger and WB Kannel
A health risk appraisal function has been developed for the prediction of
stroke using the Framingham Study cohort. The stroke risk factors included
in the profile are age, systolic blood pressure, the use of
antihypertensive therapy, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking, prior
cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease, cardiac failure, or
intermittent claudication), atrial fibrillation, and left ventricular
hypertrophy by electrocardiogram. Based on 472 stroke events occurring
during 10 years' follow-up from biennial examinations 9 and 14, stroke
probabilities were computed using the Cox proportional hazards model for
each sex based on a point system. On the basis of the risk factors in the
profile, which can be readily determined on routine physical examination in
a physician's office, stroke risk can be estimated. An individual's risk
can be related to the average risk of stroke for persons of the same age
and sex. The information that one's risk of stroke is several times higher
than average may provide the impetus for risk factor modification. It may
also help to identify persons at substantially increased stroke risk
resulting from borderline levels of multiple risk factors such as those
with mild or borderline hypertension and facilitate multifactorial risk
factor modification.
ARTICLES
Probability of stroke: a risk profile from the Framingham Study
Department of Neurology, School of Medicine, Boston University, Mass.
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