(Stroke. 1999;30:1780-1786.)
© 1999 American Heart Association, Inc.
Original Contributions |
From the Department of Primary Care and Population Sciences, Royal Free and University College Medical School, London, England (S.G.W., A.G.S.), and the Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College Cork, Republic of Ireland (I.J.P.).
Correspondence to Dr S. Goya Wannamethee, Department of Primary Care and Population Sciences, Royal Free and University College Medical School, Rowland Hill St, London NW3 2PF, England. E-mail goya{at}rfhsm.ac.uk
Background and PurposeType 2 diabetes is an established risk factor for stroke, but the relations between asymptomatic hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, and stroke incidence remain uncertain. We have examined the relationship between established diabetes, nonfasting serum glucose and serum insulin concentrations, and subsequent risk of stroke.
MethodsWe performed a prospective study of 7735 men aged 40 to 59 years drawn from general practices in 24 British towns. Men with missing serum glucose values (n=50) and men on insulin injection (n=36) were excluded, leaving 7649 men available for analysis. Baseline nonfasting serum was analyzed for insulin with a specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay method in 18 of the 24 towns (n=5663 men).
ResultsDuring the mean follow-up period of 16.8 years, there
were 347 stroke cases (fatal and nonfatal) in the 7649 men. Men who
developed diabetes during follow-up (n=320) and men with established
type 2 diabetes at screening (n=98) both showed significantly increased
risk of stroke, even after adjustment for
cardiovascular risk factors, including blood pressure
(adjusted relative risk [RR], 2.27; 95% CI, 1.23 to 4.20; RR, 2.07;
95% CI, 1.44 to 2.98, respectively). In men with no diagnosed
diabetes at screening (n=7551), risk of stroke was increased
significantly only in the top 2.5% of the nonfasting glucose
distribution (
8.2 mmol/L), and this persisted even after
adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, including
hypertension (RR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.11 to 3.13). Exclusion of the
320 men who developed diabetes during follow-up attenuated this risk so
that it was no longer significant (RR, 1.56; 95% CI, 0.83 to 2.91). In
the 5567 men with insulin measurements and no diagnosis of diabetes at
screening, a J-shaped relationship was seen between nonfasting insulin
and risk of stroke. Risk was significantly raised in the first quintile
and in the fourth quintile and above compared with the second quintile,
with all findings of marginal significance. Part of the increased risk
at higher levels of insulin was due to men who developed diabetes in
the follow-up period.
ConclusionsThis study confirms the importance of established type 2 diabetes as an independent risk factor for stroke. The increased risk of stroke seen in hyperglycemic subjects and those with elevated serum insulin levels at screening reflected to some extent the high proportion of men who subsequently developed diabetes.
Key Words: diabetes mellitus glucose insulin stroke
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