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(Stroke. 2000;31:863.)
© 2000 American Heart Association, Inc.

Original Contributions

Predictors of Death and Vascular Events in the Elderly

The Perth Community Stroke Study

Konrad Jamrozik, MBBS, DPhil, FAFPHM; Robyn J. Broadhurst, BA, BSc; Susanne Forbes, RN; Graeme J. Hankey, MBBS, MD, FRCP, FRCP (Edin), FRACP Craig S. Anderson, MBBS, FRACP, FAFPHM

From the Department of Public Health (K.J., R.J.B., S.F.) and the Stroke Unit, Royal Perth Hospital, and the Department of Medicine (G.J.H.), University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia; and Department of Geriatrics (C.S.A.), University of Auckland, Australia.

Correspondence to Dr Graeme J. Hankey, Stroke Unit, Royal Perth Hospital, GPO Box X2213, Perth, Western Australia 6847, Australia. E-mail gjhankey{at}cyllene.uwa.edu.au

Background and Purpose—The goal of the present study was to identify risk factors for vascular disease in the elderly.

Methods—We conducted a prospective study of control subjects from a population-based study of stroke in Perth, Western Australia, that was completed in 1989 to 1990 and used record linkage and a survey of survivors to identify deaths and nonfatal vascular events. Data validated through reference to medical records were analyzed with the use of Cox proportional hazards models.

Results—Follow-up for the 931 subjects was 88% complete. By June 24, 1994, 198 (24%) of the subjects had died (96 from vascular disease), and there had been 45 nonfatal strokes or myocardial infarctions. The hazard ratio for diabetes exceeded 2.0 for all end points, whereas the consumption of meat >4 times weekly was associated with a reduction in risk of 30%. In most models, female sex and consumption of alcohol were associated with reduced risks, whereas previous myocardial infarction was linked to an increase in risk.

Conclusions—There are only limited associations between lifestyle and major vascular illness in old age. Effective health promotion activities in early and middle life may be the key to a longer and healthier old age.

Key Words: cardiovascular diseases • cohort studies • elderly • mortality • Western Australia

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