Published online before print February 5, 2004, doi: 10.1161/01.STR.0000116183.50167.D9
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(Stroke. 2004;35:731.)
© 2004 American Heart Association, Inc.
Original Contributions |
Ten-Year Risk of First Recurrent Stroke and Disability After First-Ever Stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study
From the School of Population Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia (K.H., K.J., R.J.B.); Stroke Unit, Department of Neurology, Royal Perth Hospital, and Department of Medicine, University of Western Australia (G.J.H.); Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, UK (K.J.); and Clinical Trials Research Unit, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand (C.A.).
Correspondence to Professor Graeme J. Hankey, Consultant Neurologist and Head of Stroke Unit, Department of Neurology, Royal Perth Hospital, GPO Box X2213, Perth, Western Australia 6001. E-mail gjhankey{at}cyllene.uwa.edu.au
Background and Purpose— Limited information exists on the long-term prognosis after first-ever stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute frequency of first recurrent stroke and disability and the relative frequency of recurrent stroke over 10 years after first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia.
Methods— For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who lived in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth were registered prospectively. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up 10 years after the index event.
Results— Over 10 years of follow-up, the cumulative risk of a first recurrent stroke was 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34 to 51). After the first year after first-ever stroke, the average annual risk of recurrent stroke was 
4%. Case fatality at 30 days after first recurrent stroke was 41%, which was significantly greater than the case fatality at 30 days after first-ever stroke (22%) (P=0.003). For 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, the 10-year cumulative risk of death or new institutionalization was 79% (95% CI, 73 to 85) and of death or new disability was 87% (95% CI, 81 to 92).
Conclusions— Over 10 years of follow-up, the risk of first recurrent stroke is 6 times greater than the risk of first-ever stroke in the general population of the same age and sex, almost one half of survivors remain disabled, and one seventh require institutional care. Effective strategies for prevention of stroke need to be implemented early, monitored frequently, and maintained long term after first-ever stroke.
Key Words: Australia • cerebrovascular accident • epidemiology • morbidity
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