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Published Online
on April 9, 2009

Stroke. 2009
Published online before print April 9, 2009, doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.108.539601
A more recent version of this article appeared on June 1, 2009
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Submitted on October 7, 2008
Revised on November 25, 2008
Accepted on December 3, 2008

Effects of the End Point Adjudication Process on the Results of the Perindopril Protection Against Recurrent Stroke Study (PROGRESS)

Toshiharu Ninomiya MD, PhD; Geoff Donnan MD; Neil Anderson MD, PhD; Chris Bladin MD; Brian Chambers MD; Gary Gordon MD; Norman Sharpe MD; John Chalmers MD, PhD; Mark Woodward PhD; Bruce Neal MD, PhD*; for the PROGRESS Collaborative Group

From the The George Institute for International Health (T.N., J.C., M.W., B.N.), Sydney, Australia; the University of Melbourne (G.D., B.C.), Melbourne, Australia; Auckland City Hospital (N.A.), Auckland, New Zealand; Box Hill Hospital (C.B., G.G.), Melbourne, Australia; Monash University (C.B.), Melbourne, Australia; National Stroke Research Institute (G.D., B.C.), Melbourne, Australia; Austin Health (B.C.), Melbourne, Australia; University of Auckland (N.S.), Auckland, New Zealand; the University of Sydney (J.C., M.W., B.N.), Sydney, Australia; and Mount Sinai Medical Center (M.W.), New York, NY.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: bneal{at}george.org.au.

Background and Purpose—End point adjudication committees (EPAC) are widely used in large-scale clinical trials to ensure the robustness of diagnosis for end points.

Methods—The Perindopril Protection Against Recurrent Stroke Study (PROGRESS) was a double-blind randomized trial of blood pressure lowering in 6105 participants with pre-existing cerebrovascular disease. Separate estimates of the effects of randomized treatment were determined using Cox regression models that were based on the unadjudicated events initially reported by the investigator and on the final events assigned by the EPAC.

Results—There were 992 strokes initially reported by the investigators and 894 (90%) retained these diagnoses after adjudication by the EPAC. The hazard ratios (95% CIs) for the effect of randomized treatment on stroke were 0.74 (0.64 to 0.85) based on the investigator diagnoses and 0.72 (0.62 to 0.83) based on the EPAC diagnoses (P homogeneity=0.7). For each stroke subtype reported, the corresponding numbers of diagnoses (investigators/EPAC) were ischemic (593/565), hemorrhagic (124/111), and unknown (124/93) with no impact of the EPAC review on the estimates of treatment effects (all P homogeneity >0.3). There was likewise no detectable effect of reclassification of diagnoses for the effect estimates calculated for myocardial infarction or the main causes of death (all P homogeneity >0.5).

Conclusion—The EPAC process had no discernible impact on the trial conclusions. Very large trials powered to detect effects on stroke subtypes might obtain real scientific gain from an EPAC, but in the case of PROGRESS, the value of the EPAC was in the reassurance it provided.


Key words: adjudication • clinical trial • outcomes




This article has been cited by other articles:


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D. R. Kerr and E. Nasco
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Stroke, November 1, 2009; 40(11): e638 - e638.
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B. Neal, T. Ninomiya, G. Donnan, N. Anderson, C. Bladin, B. Chambers, G. Gordon, N. Sharpe, J. Chalmers, and M. Woodward
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Stroke, November 1, 2009; 40(11): e639 - e640.
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