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(Stroke. 1995;26:1-6.)
© 1995 American Heart Association, Inc.


Articles

Improved Survival of Stroke PatientsDuring the 1980s

The Minnesota Stroke Survey

Eyal Shahar, MD; Paul G. McGovern, PhD; J. Michael Sprafka, PhD; James S. Pankow, MPH; Katherine M. Doliszny, PhD; Russell V. Luepker, MD Henry Blackburn, MD

From the Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.


*    Abstract
up arrowTop
*Abstract
down arrowIntroduction
down arrowSubjects and Methods
down arrowResults
down arrowDiscussion
down arrowReferences
 
Background and Purpose The underlying reasons for the decline in stroke mortality in the United States are not well understood and have been the subject of ongoing debate. This study was undertaken to determine whether survival of hospitalized stroke patients has changed during the 1980s, thereby contributing to the decline in stroke mortality during that period.

Methods For the years 1980, 1985, and 1990, we obtained listings of discharge diagnoses from hospitals in the Minneapolis-St Paul metropolitan area and identified all hospitalizations with a discharge diagnosis code of acute cerebrovascular disease according to the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision. A 50% random sample of men and women aged 30 to 74 years was selected in each survey for detailed medical record abstraction. Standardized sets of criteria for stroke were then used to validate acute stroke events throughout the 1980s. Each of the three period cohorts of hospitalized stroke patients (1980, 1985, and 1990) was followed for at least 2 years for all-cause mortality end point.

Results A total of 1853 patients met minimal criteria for acute stroke: 564 patients in 1980, 598 patients in 1985, and 691 patients in 1990. Controlling for age, the odds of death within 2 years after stroke were approximately 40% lower in 1990 than in 1980. The relative odds of 2-year death in 1990 (versus 1980) were 0.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.47 to 0.89) and 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.42 to 0.85) for men and women, respectively. The improved survival was evident in the short term (28 days) as well as for stroke patients who survived that period. Analysis according to stroke subtype revealed that improved survival of ischemic stroke and specifically of stroke with no apparent cardioembolic source largely accounted for the overall trend. The prognosis of stroke patients who were admitted in a comatose state has not changed during that decade.

Conclusions Despite the absence of any clear major advances in acute stroke therapy, survival of stroke patients substantially improved during the 1980s. The underlying reasons for this unexpected yet remarkable trend remain uncertain but may include improved supportive and rehabilitative care of stroke victims as well as a change in the natural history of the disease.


Key Words: epidemiology • mortality • prognosis


*    Introduction
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
*Introduction
down arrowSubjects and Methods
down arrowResults
down arrowDiscussion
down arrowReferences
 
Stroke mortality has declined in the United States for several decades, although the rate of the decline has not been constant.1 A relatively slow rate of decline during the 1960s was followed by an accelerated phase during the 1970s,2 3 which coincided with the introduction of the National High Blood Pressure Education Program4 and paralleled improvements in population levels of cardiovascular risk factors.5 6 However, both regional3 and national1 data indicate a substantial deceleration in the rate of the decline in stroke mortality during the 1980s. Stroke is still the third leading cause of death in the United States.7

The reasons for the overall favorable trend in stroke mortality are not well understood and have been the subject of ongoing debate.8 9 10 11 12 13 14 The observed trend could have resulted from declining stroke incidence, improved survival of stroke patients, or both. There is little doubt, however, that the trend is real and does not reflect artifactual changes in the assigned cause of death on death certificates.8

Attempts to elucidate causes of the decline in stroke mortality have encountered at least two major methodological challenges: the rapid increase in the use of neuroimaging technology and improvements in hospital record keeping. Computed tomography, which was introduced in the 1970s, quickly became a common diagnostic tool in patients with neurological disorders and has dramatically improved the diagnosis of stroke and its classification into subtypes. It has been suggested that greater use of this technology over time may have resulted in the detection of milder stroke cases that would otherwise not have been diagnosed.15 In a similar fashion, better recording of stroke symptoms and signs in medical records may have operated to increase the pool of verified (and milder) events in more recent years.14 From the surveillance perspective, these forces could increase case ascertainment over time, mask a true decline in stroke incidence, and lead to an artifactual decline in case-fatality rate.

Despite these methodological difficulties, several studies, including ours, have concluded that survival of stroke patients improved during the 1970s, thereby contributing to the decline in stroke mortality during that period.16 17 18 Little is known, however, about more recent trends. This report examines trends in stroke survival between 1980 and 1990 in a large and well-defined community, the Minneapolis-St Paul metropolitan area.


*    Subjects and Methods
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up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
*Subjects and Methods
down arrowResults
down arrowDiscussion
down arrowReferences
 
Survey Design
The Minnesota Heart Survey is a long-term, population-based surveillance investigation of the two main cardiovascular diseases (coronary heart disease and stroke) in Minneapolis and St Paul (the Twin Cities). The target population is composed of residents of the seven-county metropolitan area aged 30 to 74 years (1.1 million in 1990). Stroke surveillance was carried out for 1970, 1980, 1985, and most recently for 1990. Findings from the 1970s and early 1980s have been published.14 18 19 This report focuses on trends during the 1980s.

For each surveillance year, listings of discharge diagnoses were obtained from acute-care hospitals serving the metropolitan area. For 1980 and 1985, 30 of the 31 metropolitan hospitals provided data, with the single nonparticipating hospital having a low patient volume. For 1990, all 25 operating hospitals collaborated in this research. With these listings, a sampling frame was constructed for each survey to include Twin Cities residents aged 30 to 74 years who had been discharged with one or more of the following acute cerebrovascular disease codes (International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision [ICD-9]) listed in any position: 431 (intracerebral hemorrhage); 432 (other and unspecified intracranial hemorrhage); 434 (occlusion of cerebral arteries); 436 (acute but ill-defined cerebrovascular disease); and 437 (other and ill-defined cerebrovascular disease). This wide range of codes was chosen to capture nearly all hospitalized events (high sensitivity) at the cost of reviewing non–stroke-related hospitalizations (low specificity). Patients discharged with a diagnosis of subarachnoid hemorrhage (ICD-9 430) and transient cerebral ischemia (ICD-9 435) were not targeted, nor were patients discharged with a diagnosis of ICD-9 433 (occlusion and stenosis of precerebral arteries). The latter ICD-9 rubric is rarely used exclusively to indicate acute stroke. For each surveillance year, a 50% random sample was selected from the sampling frame for hospital record abstraction and mortality follow-up. The study was approved by the institutional review board of the University of Minnesota.

Hospitalized Stroke Data Collection
Using standardized data collection forms and a detailed protocol, trained nurses abstracted a wide range of clinical data from the medical record. Abstracted information included neurological symptoms and signs, diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, and autopsy reports whenever available. Ambiguous clinical data were resolved in periodic meetings with study physicians. Neuroimaging reports were photocopied and later abstracted in a standardized fashion by study physicians, independent of clinical data. Reliability studies indicated a high level of agreement on key items between nurse abstractors as well as between physicians.

Stroke Validation and Classification
Considerable variation in diagnostic and coding practices among physicians, across hospitals, and particularly over time has undermined attempts to monitor disease trends through hospital discharge codes alone.20 21 To permit valid inference about time trends, surveillance studies typically apply a standard set of criteria (ie, a diagnostic algorithm) to a defined sample of discharge codes.21 22 23 Such algorithms minimize subjective judgement, maintain high levels of specificity (ie, identify only definite events), and, most importantly, allow selection of comparable events from different time periods.

Following concepts described in the National Survey of Stroke24 and in other sources,25 26 we developed two computerized diagnostic algorithms to validate stroke diagnosis consistently during the 1980s. We used two algorithms to ensure that findings were internally consistent and not attributable to differential case ascertainment over time. The first algorithm, labeled here "World Health Organization (WHO) criteria," used the basic WHO definition of acute stroke,27 namely, a new neurological deficit of presumably vascular origin that lasted at least 24 hours (or until death if the patient died within 24 hours). The second algorithm, labeled here the "Minnesota Stroke Survey (MSS) criteria," required, in addition, documentation of either one "major" or two "minor" specific neurological deficits. A major deficit was defined as aphasia, two of three body parts (face, arm, leg) affected unilaterally, visual field deficit, or coma. Minor deficits included dysarthria, apraxia, unsteady gait, one affected body part (face, arm, or leg), or abnormal plantar reflex. Both algorithms excluded events with a nonstroke etiology (eg, brain tumor, subdural hematoma) and used autopsy results whenever available. The autopsy rate, however, did not exceed 6% in any survey year.

Events meeting the criteria of either algorithm were classified as brain infarction or brain hemorrhage when neuroimaging studies were available or as "undetermined type" in their absence. Brain infarction was further classified as "possibly embolic" if one of the following was documented in the chart: atrial fibrillation, mitral stenosis, intracardiac thrombus, systemic embolus, recent myocardial infarction, or cerebral or cardiac angiography that closely preceded the stroke. All other brain infarctions were labeled "thrombotic."

To enhance the specificity of the MSS criteria, we excluded (for that algorithm only) events with nonsupportive neuroimaging more than 48 hours after symptom onset. In terms of specificity for stroke, both the WHO and the MSS criteria are more specific than the sample of unvalidated cerebrovascular disease discharges; of the two algorithms, the MSS criteria are less sensitive but more specific. Events that met the MSS criteria were, by definition, a subset of those that met the WHO criteria.

Mortality Follow-Up
Vital status on hospital discharge was ascertained from the hospital record. Vital status after discharge was ascertained through linkage with the Minnesota Death Index (MINNDEX), a statewide registry system shown to identify more than 98% of deaths found by the National Death Index.28 Follow-up of the 1990 cohort has been completed through 1992, allowing for assessment of time trends in 2-year survival of stroke patients.

Statistical Methods
Five percent to 10% of the samples of cerebrovascular disease discharges included two hospitalizations per person in a given survey year. If both events met the WHO criteria, one was randomly selected; if only one event met the criteria, that event was selected.

Characteristics of the period cohorts of hospitalized stroke patients (ie, 1980, 1985, 1990) were compared by the {chi}2 test for categorical variables, allowing for a value of "missing" (ie, not recorded in the chart). Hence, the statistical test checked the quality of record keeping over time as well as differences in the prevalence of the characteristic. One-way ANOVA was used to compare means of continuous variables.

Age-adjusted, sex-specific survival curves were plotted for each period cohort. Survival differences between two period cohorts were assessed by logistic regression models with an indicator variable for the survey year and age included in the model. Cox regression was considered unsuitable because the proportional hazards assumption was not satisfied. Survival differences between men and women within a given year were assessed after age adjustment. Pooled analyses for both sexes were performed after verifying that there was no statistical evidence for an interaction with sex. Computations were performed with SAS.29


*    Results
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up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowSubjects and Methods
*Results
down arrowDiscussion
down arrowReferences
 
Approximately 1000 person-based discharges were sampled for each survey year, with somewhat fewer discharges occurring in 1985 (Table 1Down). Of these, 50% to 70% qualified as validated events by the WHO criteria (moderately specific) and 37% to 47% by the MSS criteria (highly specific). Subtype classification was limited for 1980 because neuroimaging studies were less frequently used than in 1985 or 1990 (57%, 75%, and 82% of the discharges, respectively). In 1985 and 1990, the vast majority of strokes were brain infarction, with brain hemorrhage accounting for only about 10% of the events.


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Table 1. Hospitalized Stroke, by Survey Year and Type: Minneapolis-St Paul Metropolitan Area

Table 2Down shows characteristics of validated stroke patients (according to WHO criteria) in each survey. There was little change over time in the sex or age distribution. Approximately 15% of the patients in each survey were admitted in a comatose state, and more than 75% had a documented major neurological deficit. The prevalence of many clinical attributes increased over time, but the trend was confounded by parallel improvement in hospital record keeping (ie, decreasing frequency of missing data). Inference on time trends in stroke severity is therefore limited.


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Table 2. Characteristics of Hospitalized Stroke Patients in the Minneapolis-St Paul Metropolitan Area in 1980, 1985, and 19901

For both men (Fig 1Down) and women (Fig 2Down), age-adjusted survival curves demonstrated substantial improvements in 2-year survival between 1980 and 1990. Results were similar by either the WHO criteria or the MSS criteria. The curves diverged as of the first few days after stroke, indicating improvement in short- as well as long-term survival. The survival curve of the 1985 cohort showed different patterns in the two sexes. In men it was intermediate between the 1980 and 1990 curves and clearly more similar to the 1980 curve (Fig 1Down), whereas in women it essentially overlapped the 1990 curve (Fig 2Down). There was no evidence, however, of survival differences between men and women in any survey year (P>.1 for age-adjusted comparisons).



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Figure 1. Line graphs show age-adjusted 2-year survival of men hospitalized for acute stroke, by survey year. See "Subjects and Methods" for definitions of the two sets of stroke criteria. WHO indicates World Health Organization; MSS, Minnesota Stroke Survey.



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Figure 2. Line graphs show age-adjusted 2-year survival of women hospitalized for acute stroke, by survey year. See "Subjects and Methods" for definitions of the two sets of stroke criteria. WHO indicates World Health Organization; MSS, Minnesota Stroke Survey.

As shown in Table 3Down, the age-adjusted odds of death within 2 years after stroke were approximately 40% lower in 1990 than in 1980. This trend, which was consistent by either set of stroke criteria, reflected both short-term (28-day) survival gains as well as gains for those who had survived that period. Improved survival was also evident in subgroup analysis of patients with specific neurological deficits. For example, the age- and sex-adjusted relative odds of 2-year death (1990 versus 1980), for patients who were validated by the WHO criteria and had two body parts affected, were 0.53 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.38 to 0.73); the corresponding relative odds for aphasic patients were 0.59 (95% CI, 0.37 to 0.95). Stratified analysis according to the consciousness level of the patients revealed that survival gains were entirely restricted to patients who were conscious on admission (data not shown).


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Table 3. Age-Adjusted Relative Odds of Death After Stroke: 1990 vs 1980

Trend analysis by subtype indicated that most of the improved survival could be attributed to improved odds of surviving an ischemic stroke, primarily among patients classified as having a thrombotic stroke (Table 4Down). There was no evidence of improved survival over time for patients with hemorrhagic stroke. However, the small number of patients having this stroke subtype precludes an unequivocal conclusion about survival trends.


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Table 4. Age-Adjusted Relative Odds of 2-Year Death After Stroke, by Stroke Subtype: 1990 vs 1980


*    Discussion
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowSubjects and Methods
up arrowResults
*Discussion
down arrowReferences
 
This large, population-based study of hospitalized stroke found substantial gains in 2-year survival of stroke patients during the 1980s. Survival improvements were evident both within the first 28 days after the event as well as for the subsequent 2 years among those surviving the short-term period. In both men and women, the odds of dying within 2 years after stroke were approximately 40% lower in 1990 than in 1980. These findings were consistent for cases identified through two diagnostic algorithms, which permitted a standardized diagnosis of events occurring 10 years apart.

In the absence of apparent major advances in stroke therapy in the 1980s,30 the observed trends are remarkable, unexpected, and not well understood. At least two explanations can be suggested. First, better supportive and rehabilitative care of acute stroke may have played a role since stroke survival may be affected by the setting and characteristics of that care.31 Death after stroke is frequently attributed to sequelae such as pulmonary embolism and bronchopneumonia or is due to coexisting cardiac disease.32 These conditions were probably better prevented or managed in 1990 than in 1980. Unfortunately, our abstraction forms did not target them specifically.

A second potential explanation is a change in the natural history of stroke, with stroke becoming a less severe disease. Improved levels of cardiovascular disease risk factors,3 although primarily thought to decrease stroke incidence, may have also resulted in better prognosis for those suffering a stroke.33 Data from the Framingham Study cohort suggested that stroke severity declined between the 1950s and 1970s.34 We found improved survival as early as the first few days after the stroke, a time period when medical care is perhaps less likely to affect the outcome. In our data, improvements in hospital record keeping over time limit inference on trends in stroke severity. Regardless, improved survival was restricted to patients who were conscious on admission and cannot be attributed to a gross change in the case mix, such as a smaller proportion of comatose patients. Therefore, any decrease in stroke severity must have been more subtle.

It may be argued that the results are in part artifactual, attributable to improved detection of milder events over time because of increased use of neuroimaging and better record keeping. Several counterarguments can be made, however. First, both algorithms yielded similar odds ratio estimates. If indeed the results reflect artifactual selection of milder events in 1990 than 1980, one would have expected greater survival gains with the WHO criteria, which included milder events. Second, improved survival was observed among patients with specific notable deficits (eg, two affected body parts or aphasia) that were probably as likely to be detected by clinicians in 1980 as in 1990, regardless of neuroimaging studies. Finally, at least for men, stroke survival also improved from 1985 to 1990, a period characterized by an already widespread use of neuroimaging technology and a relatively stable quality of hospital records (Table 2Up).

Changes in hospital reimbursement rules, such as the introduction of diagnosis-related groups in the early 1980s or greater public awareness of stroke symptoms, could have affected the case mix of hospitalized stroke patients with increased representation of milder cases over time. These speculative trends, however, do not explain notable and consistent improvement in subgroups of patients with substantial neurological deficits. It is unlikely that stroke patients with aphasia or hemiparesis were differentially hospitalized in 1980 and 1990.

We are uncertain regarding the interpretation of the sex differences found in the mid-decade results. Since the difference was not statistically significant, it is possible that random variation has accounted for the 1985 results and that the year did not represent the survival experience of stroke patients in adjacent years (1984, 1986). Alternatively, it may be that stroke survival improved similarly in both sexes during the full decade, but it began improving earlier in the decade among women and later among men. It is worth noting that in Rochester, Minnesota, the decline in stroke incidence that was observed until the end of the 1970s did not coincide for men and women, beginning earlier among women than among men.8

Although a substantial number of stroke cases in 1980 could not be definitively classified into subtypes, it appears that improvements in the odds of surviving ischemic stroke and, more specifically, of strokes with no apparent cardioembolic source have made by far the largest contribution to the overall trend. Hemorrhagic stroke constituted a small fraction of the case mix, and any potential improvement in that subtype was unlikely to have had an important impact on the overall trend.

This study adds to a growing body of evidence that improved survival after stroke has played a prominent role in the decline of stroke mortality in the United States.16 17 18 While declining incidence probably contributed to the decline in stroke mortality during the 1970s and before,15 35 there is little or no evidence for a decline in stroke incidence during the 1980s.15 Indeed, the slowing of the decline in stroke mortality during the last decade3 suggests that while both declining incidence and improved survival accounted for the mortality trend during the 1970s, improved survival primarily contributed thereafter.


*    Acknowledgments
 
This study was supported by a grant (RO1-HL-23727) from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. We are indebted to Drs Gregory Burke, Richard Crow, Aaron Folsom, Richard Gillum, Linda Goldman, and David Jacobs for their contributions to the design and conduct of this study; to Mary Porter, Elise Brodin, Kristine Bisgard, and Tracy Stites for programming assistance; to the dedicated nurse abstractors who participated in this project; and to Sherrie Weller for assistance with the manuscript preparation.


*    Footnotes
 
Reprint requests to Eyal Shahar, MD, Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, 1300 S Second St, Suite 300, Minneapolis, MN 55454-1015.

Received September 7, 1994; revision received October 17, 1994; accepted October 17, 1994.


*    References
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowSubjects and Methods
up arrowResults
up arrowDiscussion
*References
 
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5. Folsom AR, Luepker RV, Gillum RF, Jacobs DR, Prineas RJ, Taylor HL, Blackburn H. Improvement in hypertension detection and control from 1973-1974 to 1980-1981. JAMA.. 1983;250:916-921. [Abstract/Free Full Text]

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