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(Stroke. 1995;26:1764-1767.)
© 1995 American Heart Association, Inc.

Articles

Predictors of Early Deterioration and Mortality in Black Americans With Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Adnan I. Qureshi, MD; Kamran Safdar, MD; E. Jennifer Weil, MD; Carol Barch, RN; Donald L. Bliwise, PhD; Austin R. Colohan, MD; Bruce Mackay, MD Michael R. Frankel, MD

From the Departments of Neurology (A.I.Q., K.S., C.B., D.L.B., B.M., M.R.F.), Medicine (E.J.W.), and Neurosurgery (A.R.C.), Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Ga.

Correspondence to Michael R. Frankel, MD, Chief of Neurology, Grady Memorial Hospital, 80 Butler St SE, PO Box 26036, Atlanta, GA 30335.

	Abstract

Top Abstract Introduction Subjects and Methods Results Discussion References

 
Background and Purpose Black Americans with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) may have unique clinical characteristics that affect outcome. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of clinical characteristics and initial CT scan for outcome in black Americans with SICH.

Methods Clinical and demographic data were extracted from the charts of 182 consecutive black Americans admitted for SICH diagnosed by clinical criteria and initial CT scan. Hemorrhage volumes were calculated from admission CT scans by a computerized method. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to determine independent predictors of early deterioration (defined as a decrease from an initial Glasgow Coma Scale score >12 by 4 points within 24 hours from presentation) and mortality.

Results Both hemorrhage volume and ventricular extension were significant, independent predictors of early deterioration (odds ratio [OR], 6.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.89 to 24.35 and OR, 4.67; 95% CI, 1.30 to 16.72, respectively) and mortality (OR, 6.66; 95% CI, 2.85 to 15.58 and OR, 4.23; 95% CI, 1.82 to 9.82, respectively). A Glasgow Coma Scale score 12 also predicted mortality (OR, 3.23; 95% CI, 1.46 to 7.14). Initial mean arterial pressure was not an independent predictor of early deterioration or mortality.

Conclusions Hemorrhage volume and ventricular extension are the best predictors of early deterioration and mortality in black Americans with SICH.

Key Words: blacks • intracerebral hemorrhage • mortality • racial differences • tomography

	Introduction

Top Abstract Introduction Subjects and Methods Results Discussion References

 
It has been shown that SICH accounts for 4% to 14%^{1 2 3 4 5 6 7} of all cases of stroke and is associated with higher morbidity and mortality than other kinds of stroke. In previous studies of SICH, predictors of poor outcome have included hematoma volume, level of consciousness, VE, hypertension, and pulse pressure.^{8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15} In most of these studies, subjects were predominantly white. Unfortunately, there are minimal data on SICH in black populations. Many reports have suggested that the risk of cerebrovascular disease differs between blacks and whites.^{16 17} Blacks have a substantially higher risk of subarachnoid and intracerebral hemorrhage, particularly at younger ages, and have a higher mortality.^{18 19 20 21} The higher risk of SICH among blacks may be related to the higher prevalence and greater severity of hypertension in this population.^{16 17 22 23} To determine the predictors of outcome of SICH in black Americans, we undertook a retrospective study in our university-affiliated teaching hospital to determine significant predictors easily determined at the time of admission.

	Subjects and Methods

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Patients
All black Americans admitted to Grady Memorial Hospital in Atlanta, Ga, with the diagnosis of SICH confirmed by CT scan between January 1990 and July 1993 were evaluated for inclusion in the study. Race was determined by the registration clerk upon presentation to the emergency room on the basis of skin color and place of birth. Eligible patients were sought by medical record retrieval with the use of the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICD-9-CM codes 431 and 432.9). To be sure that only patients with SICH were included, charts and CT scans were reviewed. We excluded patients in whom intracerebral hemorrhage was known or suspected to be secondary to infection, brain tumor, vasculitis, trauma, arteriovenous malformation, rupture of berry aneurysm, or hemorrhagic transformation of prior cerebral infarction. Patients with a history of sympathomimetic drug abuse were not excluded. The number of these patients included is not known. However, accessible data on 89 of the most recent charts in this cohort revealed 7 with cocaine or amphetamine present of 30 patients screened with urine toxicology.

Data Collection
Medical Records
In addition to age and sex, the following information was extracted from the patients' charts and used for statistical analyses. (1) We determined initial MAP,²⁴ calculated by the equation MAP=Diastolic Blood Pressure+1/3 Pulse Pressure; we used the first blood pressure measured by a health professional and documented in the chart. In most cases the initial blood pressures were measured either by the Emergency Medical Service personnel or by the triage nurse in the emergency department. (2) We assessed neurological status at presentation using the initial GCS²⁵ score provided by the Emergency Medical Service personnel or by the emergency department records. (3) Two end points were assessed for each patient: early deterioration, defined as a decline from an initial GCS score of >12 by 4 points within 24 hours from presentation, and mortality. GCS was monitored approximately every 2 hours during the first 24 hours after admission. Therapeutic interventions were determined to be medical or surgical. Condition upon discharge was also recorded.

CT Scan Images
The following data were extracted by a single neurologist from the patients' CT scans obtained at the time of admission. (1) The site of hemorrhage was broadly classified into one of two groups: supratentorial or infratentorial. (2) We determined VE by assessing CT scans for the presence or absence of blood in the ventricles. (3) ICHV was calculated by computerized image analysis. Each CT image was placed on a light box, and after an appropriate degree of clarity and brightness was obtained, an image was captured by a camera, digitized, and reproduced on a video monitor. The region of the hemorrhage was identified, and its borders were approximated on the screen with electronic markers. The number of pixels constituting the area of the hemorrhage was determined. With the linear centimeter scale on each CT image, a calibration square was used to determine the calibration factor (pixels per square centimeter). The number of pixels of hemorrhage in an individual CT slice was then divided by the calibration factor to obtain real surface area measurements in square centimeters. The surface area was multiplied by the image slice thickness (0.5 to 1.0 cm) to obtain a slice volume. Slice volumes were then added to obtain the ICHV.

Statistical Analysis
Statistical analysis was performed with the use of EPI INFO 5.1²⁶ and SAS.²⁷ First we performed univariate analyses using EPI INFO to determine which variables significantly predicted the outcomes of early deterioration and mortality. Variables included age, sex, initial MAP (dichotomized as <140 or 140 mm Hg), site of hemorrhage (infratentorial or supratentorial), VE (presence or absence of ventricular blood), ICHV (<30 or 30 cm³), and for mortality, initial GCS score (12 or >12). To appreciate the relative contributions of variables predicting early deterioration and mortality, we performed a series of multiple logistic regressions using the PROC LOGISTIC subprogram of SAS.

	Results

Top Abstract Introduction Subjects and Methods Results Discussion References

 
There were 212 cases of SICH. The records of 193 patients were accessible. Of these, 182 patients were black and met the other inclusion criteria. The mean age for this patient group was 57.9±13.5 years, and the group was composed of 106 men and 76 women. Sixteen patients had surgical intervention; of these, 10 had craniotomies and 6 had percutaneous evacuations. Of the 22 patients who had early deterioration, 3 had surgical management. Mortality was similar in patients who had medical and surgical management (50.6% and 50.0%, respectively).

Early Deterioration
A total of 95 patients presented with an initial GCS score >12. Of these, 22 (23.1%) had early deterioration. The mean time from presentation to early deterioration was 7.9±5.1 hours. Results of the univariate analysis are shown in Table 1. The following three variables were associated with early deterioration: MAP, VE, and ICHV. Results of the multiple logistic regression analysis are shown in Table 2. In this analysis, only VE and ICHV were independently associated with early deterioration.

View this table: [in this window] [in a new window]   Table 1. TABLE 1. Predictors of Early Deterioration by Univariate Analysis in Patients With Initial Glasgow Coma Scale Score >12 (n=95)

View this table: [in this window] [in a new window]   Table 2. TABLE 2. Independent Predictors of Early Deterioration by Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis

Mortality
Of the 182 patients, mortality during hospitalization was 50.5% (n=92). Of the patients who died, 45% died within the first 48 hours. Univariate analyses showed the following variables to be significantly associated with mortality: initial MAP, GCS score, VE, and ICHV (Table 3). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only VE, GCS score, and ICHV remained independently associated with mortality (Table 4).

View this table: [in this window] [in a new window]   Table 3. TABLE 3. Predictors of Mortality by Univariate Analysis

View this table: [in this window] [in a new window]   Table 4. TABLE 4. Independent Predictors of Mortality by Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis

	Discussion

Top Abstract Introduction Subjects and Methods Results Discussion References

 
The high rates of morbidity and mortality in patients with SICH are well recognized. During the course of the last decade, several groups of investigators have attempted to identify and quantify prognosticators of outcome in patients with SICH (Table 5). Although the general approaches and methods of interpretation have varied from one study to another, many of the findings have been remarkably consistent.

View this table: [in this window] [in a new window]   Table 5. TABLE 5. Predictors of Outcome After SICH by Multivariate Regression Analysis: Previous Studies

In those studies of predominantly white patients, mortality ranges between 23% and 58%. Results of previous studies suggest that SICH may differ between white patients and black patients, according to risk of developing SICH,^{20 21} age of onset,^{18 20} and mortality.¹⁸ The present study is the largest study of outcomes in black Americans with SICH. Although this study does not examine risk factors for SICH, the mean age of onset and overall mortality for blacks with SICH were comparable to those in white populations.

Among our patients with SICH, 23.1% of those with an initial GCS score >12 underwent early deterioration. Although there are no published data on the prevalence of early deterioration, the Harvard Cooperative Stroke Registry found that 56% of all patients admitted with SICH (n=115) experienced further worsening and 25% of these deteriorated suddenly,³ a value similar to our own. The only variables independently predictive of early deterioration in our study are ICHV and VE.

Our overall mortality was 50.5%, a value within the range of previous studies. Previous studies have shown that the best predictors of mortality for patients with SICH are pulse pressure, GCS score, VE, and ICHV (Table 5). In the present study independent predictors of mortality included VE, GCS score, and ICHV but not initial MAP (Table 4). This may be an important difference between our study and those preceding ours. Carlberg et al²⁸ showed that elevated MAP at the time of admission was associated with increased mortality, particularly in patients with impaired consciousness. It is unclear to what extent our results may be specific to blacks.

One limiting factor of this study is that the time from onset of SICH until presentation to the emergency department was not controlled. Because patients undoubtedly presented at different points in the natural history of SICH, some of our initial measurements may reflect in part the delay between onset and presentation. By using the earliest reliable measurements, this study has attempted to minimize the effect of time between onset and presentation, although one drawback of using such measurements is that there are multiple observers and no standardization of observations. Another limiting factor in this study is its retrospective design, which does not control prospectively for therapeutic interventions.

The most important finding of our study is that ICHV and VE are independent predictors of both early deterioration and mortality. As the treatment of SICH evolves, it will be necessary to determine which patients are most likely to benefit from new therapeutic options. This study suggests that among patients with an initial GCS score >12, ventricular bleeding and large ICHV are the most important predictors of early deterioration. Early recognition and treatment could potentially have the greatest impact in this subgroup of patients. These patients may therefore represent the best candidates for randomized clinical trials of novel therapeutic approaches.

	Selected Abbreviations and Acronyms

 

CI = confidence interval GCS = Glasgow Coma Scale ICHV = intracerebral hemorrhage volume MAP = mean arterial pressure OR = odds ratio SICH = spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage VE = ventricular extension

Received October 21, 1994; revision received June 30, 1995; accepted June 30, 1995.

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Top Abstract Introduction Subjects and Methods Results Discussion References

 

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This Article Abstract Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Citation Map Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Request Permissions Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Qureshi, A. I. Articles by Frankel, M. R. Search for Related Content PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Qureshi, A. I. Articles by Frankel, M. R.