(Stroke. 1995;26:1781-1786.)
© 1995 American Heart Association, Inc.
Articles |
From the Division of Stroke and Hypertension Research, First Department of Medicine, Osaka University Medical School, Suita, Japan.
Correspondence to Nobuo Handa, MD, PhD, Division of Stroke and Hypertension Research, First Department of Medicine, Osaka University Medical School, 2-2, Yamadaoka, Suita, 565, Japan.
| Abstract |
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Methods Two hundred fourteen patients were registered from nine hospitals in the Osaka community. All patients were checked for a prior history of stroke, and the risk factors for stroke and atherosclerosis were evaluated. Carotid atherosclerosis was assessed by 7.5-MHz duplex ultrasonography. We studied the relationship between the ischemic stroke event rate and the severity and appearance of the carotid atherosclerosis. We also studied the relationship between stroke events and various risk factors.
Results The average duration of follow-up was 16 months. Ten patients suffered new ischemic stroke episodes during this follow-up period. At the initial ultrasonographic study, 16 patients had high-grade stenosis and 21 had ulcerated plaque. Proportional hazard regression analysis showed that grade of stenosis and plaque ulceration were positively related to the event rate. Patients with ulcerated plaque had a sevenfold higher hazard ratio for stroke in comparison to those without (P<.01). The ipsilateral stroke recurrence rate was 11 times higher in patients with ulcerated high-grade stenotic carotid lesions.
Conclusions The present findings demonstrate that the severity of carotid atherosclerosis as evaluated by ultrasonography is a useful indicator of the risk of ischemic stroke in symptomatic patients.
Key Words: carotid artery diseases clinical trials prognosis ultrasonics
| Introduction |
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In our previous studies, we used B-mode ultrasonography for the evaluation of carotid lesions and demonstrated the clinical usefulness of this method for the assessment of carotid atherosclerosis in patients with risk factors for stroke.4 To determine the risk of ischemic stroke in Japanese patients with carotid atherosclerosis, we performed a multicenter follow-up study: the Osaka Follow-up Study for Ultrasonographic Assessment of Carotid Atherosclerosis (the OSACA study). The aims of the OSACA study were to clarify (1) the relationship between carotid lesions and ischemic stroke event, (2) the relationship between progression of carotid atherosclerosis and risk factors, and (3) the effectiveness of antiatherothrombotic agents (elastase) on the progression of the atherosclerosis. In this article, we describe primarily the results of the first aim in this OSACA study. We have already reported the preliminary results in abstract form.10 11
| Subjects and Methods |
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High-resolution B-mode ultrasonography was performed with a 7.5-MHz
duplex-type scanner (Hitachi EUB-450, 555). Before beginning the
study, we held an ultrasonographic evaluation protocol conference to
determine standard methods for scanning, image recording, and
evaluation of carotid lesions. Three different longitudinal views
(anterior oblique, lateral, and posterior oblique) and transverse views
of both carotid systems were obtained. Each ultrasound image was
recorded on s-VHS videotape with an on-line videotape
recorder. The IMT was evaluated as the distance between the
luminal-intimal interface and the medial-adventitial interface,
and it was measured using two calipers on the frozen frame of a
suitable longitudinal image. On the basis of our previous studies and
the consensus of the conference, the upper limit of normal for the IMT
was defined as 1.0 mm, and lesions with an IMT
1.1 mm were defined as
atheromatous plaques. To assess the severity of
atherosclerosis, we used a "plaque score," which
was calculated by summing all plaque thicknesses in both carotid
systems.4 To study lesion site specificity and allow easy
comparison of lesion progression, the extracranial carotid artery was
divided into four segments of 15 mm each from the flow divider (Fig 1
). The degree of stenosis was calculated from
the ratio between the residual lumen and that of the original lumen.
Doppler peak flow velocities >1.5 m/s were used to estimate >50%
stenosis, and peak flow velocities >2.0 m/s indicated >70%
high-grade stenosis.12 Referring to Moore's
criteria, we defined ulcerated lesions by the presence of large,
obvious excavations (Moore's type B ulcer) and/or plaque with multiple
cavities or a cavernous appearance (Moore's type C
ulcer).13 Obstructive lesions or hairline stenosis
were diagnosed easily using duplex. All ultrasonographic images that
were recorded on s-VHS videotape were collected with other clinical
records by the management office of the OSACA study, and the
analysis was performed in a blinded manner. The data analyst
was unaware not only of the outcome event but of the other clinical
data also.
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Age, sex, and four other risk factors for atherosclerosis were evaluated in all patients, together with symptoms of CVD. Hypertension was diagnosed when the blood pressure measured in the hospital was >160/95 mm Hg or if the patient was taking antihypertensive agents. Glucose intolerance was diagnosed if a patient was using oral hypoglycemic agents or insulin and/or if the fasting blood glucose level in the hospital exceeded 6.1 mmol/L and/or the glycosylated hemoglobin level exceeded 6.4%. Hypercholesterolemia was diagnosed if a patient was taking lipid-lowering agents and/or if the serum cholesterol level exceeded 5.7 mmol/L. Patients were categorized as being either nonsmokers (never smoked cigarettes or quit >3 years ago) or smokers (recently [<3 years] gave up cigarettes or current smoker). The subtype of CVD was classified from the history, neurological examination, and findings of CT and/or MRI scans according to the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke classification III of CVD.14 All patients were assessed for cardiac status on the basis of history, electrocardiogram, and transthoracic echocardiogram. If a patient was suspected of ischemic heart disease, Master's double-load test or ergometer test with electrocardiogram was performed.
Statistical analysis was performed with the SAS
package and a personal computer (PC-9801PA, NEC). Cox proportional
hazard regression analysis was used to assess the relationship
between plaque appearance and the risk of various outcomes. The hazard
ratio and 95% CI were used to assess the results. The relative risk
was indicated by the hazard ratio. To compare categorical values,
2 analysis was used. Log-rank test
was used for analyzing the data of the Kaplan-Meier curves. For
analyzing the changes of numerical data, such as the plaque score,
Student's paired or unpaired t test was used.
| Results |
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The average duration of follow-up was 16 months (range, 4 to 48
months). In this follow-up period, 10 patients suffered a new CVD
episode. Fig 2
is a flow chart of the annual stroke
event rate in groups defined by the PS category and prior CVD.
Transient ischemic attacks occurred in 2 patients, lacunar
infarcts occurred in 2 patients, and 6 patients had new
atherothrombotic brain infarcts. Seven patients had a disabling stroke,
and 1 had a minor stroke. The stroke was ipsilateral to the carotid
lesions in 8 patients and contralateral in 1. The remaining 1 stroke
patient had no carotid lesions. Two non-CVD patients with moderate to
severe carotid atherosclerosis suffered their first CVD
attack (4.3% per year), and the remaining 8 patients had recurrent CVD
(6.9% per year). Table 2
summarizes the background
characteristics of carotid lesions and type of stroke events in the
above 10 patients.
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Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to relate
the risk of stroke events to plaque appearance and the severity of
atherosclerosis. The grades of carotid stenosis
and plaque ulceration were found to be positively related to stroke
event rate. Patients with severe atherosclerosis (PS
>10) had a ninefold higher hazard ratio (95% CI ranging from 1.00 to
82.11, P<.05; Table 3
). The patients with
high-grade stenosis (
70%) had a 21-fold higher risk for
all stroke events than those without (95% CI ranging from 2.68 to
178.43, P<.004; Table 3
). The patients with ulcerated
plaque showed a higher incidence of recurrent CVD than did those
without (19.2% versus 4.8%, P<.05; Table 3
). Among
recurrent CVD patients, those with ulcerated plaque were 11 times more
likely to suffer an ipsilateral stroke than those without ulcerated
plaque (Table 4
). Ipsilateral disabling stroke was 14
times more common in the patients with ulcerated high-grade carotid
stenosis. For further analysis of the relationship
between ulceration and grade of stenosis, we compared event
rate and recurrence rate among four subgroups. Event rates with
subgrouping of ulceration and grade of stenosis were as
follows: 3 of 10 high-grade stenosis with ulcer (30%), 2
of 6 high-grade stenosis without ulcer (33%), 1 of 11
low-grade stenosis with ulcer (9%), and 3 of 150
low-grade stenosis without ulcer (2%).
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Comparing the outcome event rate and the initial stroke type, patients
with atherothrombotic infarction had a threefold higher risk of
recurrence than those with lacunar infarction (Table 3
).
Kaplan-Meier survival curves for three categories of carotid
atherosclerosis are shown in Fig 3
.
These were the result of all stroke events. High-grade
stenosis was the most effective factor for survival curves;
other factors (PS category and ulceration) were also significant
factors (log-rank test).
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Ninety-one patients (63 CVD patients and 28 non-CVD patients) took antiplatelet agents for the treatment of stroke, IHD, or arteriosclerosis obliterans. CVD recurred in 2 of 38 patients (6.8%) taking ticlopidine, 2 of 25 patients (8.0%) taking aspirin, and 4 of 25 patients (16%) without antiplatelet agents. Ticlopidine reduced the risk of stroke by at least 30% at 16 months of follow-up, but this was not significant.
During follow-up, the average plaque score increased significantly
from 4.5±4.9 to 5.3±5.0 (P<.0001). There was no
significant difference in plaque progression between event cases and
event-free cases (
PS, 0.93 versus 0.71). Only one disabling
stroke occurred in a patient with apparent plaque progression. Autopsy
showed intraplaque hemorrhage, and this was suspected to be the
cause of acute plaque progression.
| Discussion |
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The present study demonstrated that the severity of carotid atherosclerosis evaluated by ultrasonography in symptomatic patients was a useful marker of the prognosis for ischemic stroke events. Eliasziw et al15 also demonstrated that plaque ulceration with symptomatic high-grade stenosis was associated with a several-fold increased risk of stroke. Their study emphasized that high-grade stenosis and ulceration were associated with a high risk of stroke. Although plaque ulceration was sometimes found in early carotid atheroma (7% of low-grade stenosis in this study), ulcers were usually detected in large high-grade carotid lesions. Although there was a relatively small number of events, our study showed a close relationship between the severity of carotid atherosclerosis and stroke as well as a relationship between plaque appearance and stroke. Although there was no statistical significance of stroke event rate between patients of low-grade stenosis with ulcer and those without, ulceration in low-grade stenosis might show a potential risk for stroke. This close correlation between carotid lesions and stroke suggests the mechanism of artery-to-artery embolism. However, it is difficult to obtain clinical evidence of such embolism. This is because patients with severe carotid atherosclerosis frequently suffer from ischemic heart disease, which is a major cause of cardiogenic embolism. They also have generalized atherosclerosis including the small intracerebral arteries, which is the main cause of lacunar infarction.
The annual CVD recurrence event rate was 15% to 20% in the patients with severe carotid lesions under medical treatment. Large intervention trials have demonstrated the effectiveness of carotid endarterectomy in these patients. For example, NASCET6 showed that the risk of any stroke within 2 years was 27.6% in a medically treated group with high-grade stenosis and 12.6% in a surgically treated group. There was a 54% reduction of stroke events on comparison of the two groups. Our results support this pattern in Japanese patients with symptomatic high-grade stenosis.
Only two patients had a first CVD event in the follow-up period, and they had moderate to severe asymptomatic carotid lesions. One patient had ipsilateral carotid disease with ulcerated high-grade stenosis, and the other patient had a nonulcerated lesion. To assess the relationship between asymptomatic carotid lesions and stroke, a larger sample of asymptomatic patients and a longer follow-up period would be needed.
Carotid atherosclerosis progressed during the follow-up period, but we could not demonstrate a clear correlation between plaque progression and stroke events. Only one disabling stroke occurred in a patient with apparent plaque progression. Autopsy showed intraplaque hemorrhage, and this was suspected to be the cause of acute plaque progression. A study evaluating the relationship between plaque progression and risk factors is now ongoing, and we hope to publish the results in the future.
In conclusion, the OSACA study was designed to provide the clinical significance of carotid atherosclerosis for stroke events and also to show the effect of antiatherothrombotic agents on the progression of carotid atherosclerosis. The results of the study support the evidence showing that the severity of carotid atherosclerosis is a major predictive marker for future ischemic stroke events. However, we need to address with care the readings of the data, such as the high recurrence rate in the patients with high-grade stenosis, because of the relatively small sample size and the marginal number of event cases.
| Selected Abbreviations and Acronyms |
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| Acknowledgments |
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| Appendix |
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Steering and Writing Committee of the Executive Committee:
T. Kamada, MD; K. Kimura, MD*; M. Matsumoto, MD; N. Handa, MD (First
Department of Medicine, Osaka University Medical School, Osaka
Seamen's Hospital*). T. Nukada, MD; H. Etani, MD (Division of
Cardiovascular Medicine, National Osaka-Minami Hospital). M.
Imaizumi, MD; K. Ashida, MD (Department of Internal Medicine, National
Osaka Hospital). Y. Sugitani, MD (Internal Medicine,
Hoshigaoka-Kouseinenkin Hospital). S. Yoneda, MD (Yao Municipal
Hospital). M. Kusunoki, MD; T. Asai, MD (Department of Internal
Medicine, Kobe Ekisaikai Hospital). K. Sueyoshi, MD; R. Fukunaga, MD
(Internal Medicine, Osaka Rousai Hospital). O. Uyama, MD (Fifth
Department of Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine). Y. Tsuda, MD; K.
Nagatsuka, MD
; Y. Ayada, MD (Second Department of Medicine, Kagawa
Medical School, National Cardiovascular Center
).
The participating hospitals and researchers are listed in order of the number of eligible patients entered in the study.
Osaka University Medical School, Suita: K. Kimura, MD*;
M. Matsumoto, MD; N. Handa, MD; S. Ogawa, MD; H. Maeda, MD; H. Hougaku;
T. Itoh; Y. Tsukamoto; O. Iiji. National Osaka-Minami
Hospital, Kawachinagano: H. Etani, MD; K. Terayama, MD*.
National Osaka Hospital, Osaka: K. Ashida, MD.
Hoshigaoka-Kouseinenkin Hospital, Hirakata: Y. Sugitani, MD;
K. Tanaka, MD; Y. Nagai. Yao Municipal Hospital, Yao: S.
Yoneda, MD. Kobe Ekisaikai Hospital, Kobe: M. Kusunoki, MD;
T. Asai, MD. Osaka Rousai Hospital, Sakai: K. Sueyoshi,
MD; R. Fukunaga, MD; M. Yamaguchi, PhD (ultrasonographer). Hyogo
College of Medicine, Nishinomiya: O. Uyama, MD; T. Matsuyama, MD;
Z. Matsumoto, MD; H. Michishita; MD. Second Department of
Medicine, Kagawa Medical School, Takamatsu: Y. Tsuda, MD; K.
Nagatsuka, MD
; Y. Ayada, MD
.
*Osaka Seamen's Hospital;
National
Cardiovascular Center;
Sakaide Municipal
Hospital.
Received January 23, 1995; revision received June 16, 1995; accepted June 16, 1995.
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