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(Stroke. 1997;28:2410-2416.)
© 1997 American Heart Association, Inc.


Articles

Apolipoprotein E {epsilon}2 Allele and Risk of Stroke in the Older Population

Luigi Ferrucci, MD, PhD; Jack M. Guralnik, MD, PhD; Marco Pahor, MD; Tamara Harris, MD, MS; Maria-Chiara Corti, MD, MHS; Brad T. Hyman, MD, PhD; Robert B. Wallace, MD; Richard J. Havlik, MD, MPH

From the Geriatric Department, "I Fraticini," National Research Institute (INRCA), Florence, Italy (L.F.); Epidemiology, Demography, and Biometry Program, National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Md (L.F., J.M.G., T.H., M.-C.C., R.J.H.); Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Tennessee, Memphis (M.P.); Neurology Service, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (B.T.H.); and Department of Preventive Medicine and Environmental Health, University of Iowa, Iowa City (R.B.W.).


*    Abstract
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*Abstract
down arrowIntroduction
down arrowSubjects and Methods
down arrowResults
down arrowDiscussion
down arrowReferences
 
Background and Purpose There is evidence for a role of apolipoprotein E (apoE) in atherosclerosis. Coronary heart disease morbidity is higher in persons carrying an {epsilon}4 allele and lower in those carrying an {epsilon}2 allele, but the effect on cerebrovascular disease is controversial. We estimated the risk of stroke associated with different apoE genotypes in older persons.

Methods At the sixth annual follow-up of the Iowa cohort of the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly, 1664 persons aged >=71 years and free of stroke were genotyped for apo E. Occurrence of ischemic strokes was prospectively assessed from subsequent hospital discharge records and death certificates.

Results One hundred fifty persons had an ischemic stroke over the subsequent 5 years (21.2 per 1000 person-years). The presence of {epsilon}3 and {epsilon}4 did not influence stroke risk. Among persons aged <80 years at the time of genotyping, {epsilon}2 carriers had lower risk of incident stroke, while no effect was detected in the older group. Compared with {epsilon}2 carriers aged 70 to 79 years (reference group), those in the same age group and not carrying an {epsilon}2 had 2.6-fold higher risk of incident stroke, and those aged >=80 years had even higher risks of stroke but without any difference according to presence/absence of {epsilon}2 (relative risks 3.6 and 3.3). Results remained substantially unchanged when adjusted for potential confounders and in models estimating the effect of apoE polymorphism on the risk of developing a stroke at ages between 70 and 79 years (56 events) and separately at ages >=80 years (94 events).

Conclusions The conditioning influence of age on the protection conferred by the apoE {epsilon}2 allele on stroke risk may account for previous controversies. This hypothesis should be verified in a population with a wider age range.


Key Words: aging • apolipoproteins • risk factors • stroke


*    Introduction
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
*Introduction
down arrowSubjects and Methods
down arrowResults
down arrowDiscussion
down arrowReferences
 
Apolipoprotein E is a plasma protein involved in the metabolism of lipids.1 2 Six main isoforms of the apoE genotype exist, each consisting of a pair of the three major codominant alleles {epsilon}2, {epsilon}3, and {epsilon}4, encoding, respectively, the three protein isoforms E2, E3, and E4.1 3

Most current research on apoE focuses on {epsilon}4 and {epsilon}2 being associated with, respectively, increased and decreased risk of both sporadic and late-onset familial Alzheimer's disease,4 5 6 7 8 although after 80 years of age the association becomes less consistent.9 10 Many experimental and clinical observations also suggest that apoE is implicated in the atherosclerotic process through multiple local and general mechanisms.2 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Epidemiological studies performed mainly in young and middle-aged persons have shown that severity of atherosclerosis in the thoracic aorta,21 risk22 and severity23 of CHD, chance of restenosis after angioplasty and endoarteriectomy,24 25 26 family history of CHD,27 and CHD mortality28 are higher in persons carrying an {epsilon}4 allele and lower in those carrying an {epsilon}2 allele. These associations are explained only in part by differences in serum lipid concentrations.29 Analogous with findings for Alzheimer's disease, the association between apoE polymorphism and CHD is less evident in older populations.30

A logical extension of the findings on CHD is to hypothesize that apoE polymorphism is also implicated in cerebrovascular atherosclerosis. Pedro-Botet et al31 found that patients with ischemic strokes were more likely to carry an {epsilon}4 allele than age-matched control subjects. However, in a case-control study by Courdec et al,32 patients affected by ischemic stroke had an {epsilon}2/{epsilon}3 genotype more often than nonstroke control subjects but less often than younger healthy blood donors. Two studies found a higher prevalence of {epsilon}4 in patients with multi-infarct dementia compared with older control subjects.33 34 35 There is evidence of a synergistic interaction of {epsilon}4 and severity of atherosclerosis for the risk of dementia.36

In contrast, two prospective studies in older persons performed in Finland30 and in Sweden37 failed to show a significant relationship between apoE polymorphism and risk of stroke. In the Finnish study the apoE polymorphism also had no effect on CHD.30 In the Swedish study37 the rates of stroke showed a rising, but not significant, trend across the {epsilon}2/{epsilon}3, {epsilon}3/{epsilon}3, and {epsilon}4/{epsilon}3 genotypes, and the fraction of cognitive impairment attributable to stroke was lowest (2%) in the {epsilon}2/{epsilon}3 group compared with the {epsilon}3/{epsilon}3 and the {epsilon}3/{epsilon}4 groups (9%).

We tested the hypothesis that apoE polymorphism is related to the risk of stroke, but analogous to what has been suggested for Alzheimer's disease and CHD, the strength of this association is age dependent. This may explain some of the inconsistencies in the findings of previous studies.


*    Subjects and Methods
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up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
*Subjects and Methods
down arrowResults
down arrowDiscussion
down arrowReferences
 
Sources of Data
This study uses data from the Iowa site of the EPESE. The general design of the study is described elsewhere.38 Briefly, between 1981 and 1983, a survey was conducted on the entire population aged >=65 years living in two Iowa counties, and follow-up data were collected yearly for 7 years. Blood specimens were obtained from 1940 (76.1%) of the 2548 subjects who were found alive and were reinterviewed for the sixth annual follow-up in 1988. Of these, 1898 had apoE genotyping.

Detection of Strokes
Occurrence of stroke was assessed by examining hospital discharge records and death certificates. The MEDPAR files, which include data on hospitalizations for persons covered by Medicare program part A (97% of the US population aged >=65 years),39 supplied information on hospital admissions, including discharge diagnoses coded according to the ICD-9-CM.40 Uniform data from these files were available from 1985 through 1992. Nine persons who could not be matched with the MEDPAR files were excluded from the analysis.

Vital status was established from a subsequent follow-up, contact with proxies, and the National Death Index. ICD-9-CM codes for underlying causes of death were obtained from death certificates.

Codes for ischemic/thrombotic or generic strokes (ICD-9-CM codes 434 to 434.9, 436.0) listed as the principal discharge diagnosis or reported as the underlying cause of death were considered stroke events.

ApoE Genotype and Other Potential Risk Factors
Determination of apoE genotype was performed by restriction enzyme digestion of an apoE polymerase chain reaction product derived from blood samples.41 Several potential risk factors for stroke were examined. Smoking status was classified as current/past smoker and never smoked, based on self-report. At each follow-up participants were asked if they had ever been told by a doctor that they had diabetes, heart attack, or stroke. Blood pressure was measured at the sixth follow-up of the EPESE, the zero time for this analysis, by trained interviewers. The average of two readings was used in the analysis. Hypertension was considered present if the subject reported a physician's diagnosis and was taking any antihypertensive drug or if blood pressure values exceeded 90 mm Hg diastolic or 160 mm Hg systolic.

Blood samples were collected in a nonfasting state at participants' homes and processed by a commercial laboratory (Nichols Institute, San Juan Capistrano, Calif). Total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations were measured with the use of standard enzymatic methods. For the multivariate analysis, participants were classified into four total cholesterol categories: <=160, 161 to 199, 200 to 239, and >=240 mg/dL; three HDL-cholesterol categories: <35, 35 to 59, and >=60 mg/dL; and three triglyceride categories: <200, 200 to 300, and >=300 mg/dL. The choice of the cut points follows the National Cholesterol Education Program criteria,42 with an additional category for low cholesterol, which is an important risk factor in older persons.43 The number of hospital admissions before stroke or before censoring was also calculated.

Population at Risk
A total of 225 persons had a history of stroke or had been hospitalized for CVD (ICD-9-CM codes 431 to 436) at or before the sixth annual follow-up. The prospective analysis presented in this report uses data from the 1664 participants without history of stroke at baseline. In agreement with previous cross-sectional findings from the same data set,41 we found similar distributions of apoE genotypes in those with and without a history of CVD.

Data Analysis
Tests for association between apoE alleles, potential confounders, and risk of incident stroke were fitted by using single gene models that gave equal weight to heterozygotes and homozygotes for a given allele.44 The association between apoE polymorphism and potential risk factors for stroke was explored by dividing the study population into three partially overlapping groups, according to presence of the alleles {epsilon}2, {epsilon}3, or {epsilon}4 in the apoE genotype. The effects of presence versus absence of specific alleles in the apoE genotype on the distribution of potential confounders were simultaneously estimated in linear (continuous variables) and logistic (dichotomous variables) regression models.

The first occurrence of stroke was utilized in the analyses. Stroke incidence rates are reported as events per 1000 person-years. RRs and their 95% CIs of incident stroke, comparing persons carrying and not carrying a specific allele, were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression models. Participants with no stroke events were censored at the end of 1992 or at death, whichever came first. The interaction between age and carrying an {epsilon}2 on the risk of stroke was tested both by creating indicator variables for the cross-combination of age (<80 versus >=80 years) and {epsilon}2 ({epsilon}2+ versus {epsilon}2-) and by introducing an interaction "age*{epsilon}2" term in the model. The proportionality of the hazards, which is the main assumption of this regression technique, was verified by plotting the log (-log) survival function and the baseline hazard functions against time for the four groups (70 to 79 {epsilon}2+; 70 to 79 {epsilon}2-; >=80 {epsilon}2+; >=80 {epsilon}2-). Both the log (-log) survival function and the hazard functions were roughly parallel for these four groups, suggesting proportionality of the hazards over the entire follow-up. The six most influential observations were identified by calculating for each of the participant the likelihood displacement statistic,45 which indicates how much the 2-log likelihood of the model will change if the individual is removed. After any of these subjects were excluded from the analysis, the findings of the analysis were very similar and their interpretation did not change.

Further models were created to estimate the risk of developing a stroke at a specific age and how apoE polymorphism affects this risk. Two models were fitted to examine separately the age ranges 70 to 79 and >=80. These two models, rather than setting the zero time at the date of the baseline interview, considered age 70 and age 80 as time 0 for the time-to-event analyses. Participants were sequentially entered into the population at risk at the time of their baseline age and were considered at risk up to the time when they developed an event, died, or were censored, whichever came first. The first model included only participants who were aged <80 years at baseline. Of these, those who survived free of stroke beyond 80 years were censored at that age. The second model included participants who were aged >=80 years at baseline and participants who had survived free of stroke beyond 80 years of age. This last group was entered in the population at risk at age 80.


*    Results
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowSubjects and Methods
*Results
down arrowDiscussion
down arrowReferences
 
ApoE Genotype
The population at risk for incident strokes consisted of 1664 subjects (mean±SD age, 78.9±5.8 years; range, 71 to 102 years; 65.4% women). Isoform prevalences were 0.6% for {epsilon}2/{epsilon}2, 15.2% for {epsilon}3/{epsilon}2, 57.9% for {epsilon}3/{epsilon}3, 22.5% for {epsilon}3/{epsilon}4, 2.0% for {epsilon}4/{epsilon}2, and 1.8% for {epsilon}4/{epsilon}4, with small, nonsignificant differences according to age and sex.

ApoE Polymorphism and Risk of Stroke
Over the follow-up (median follow-up time, 4.2 years), 150 stroke events were recorded (21.2 per 1000 person-years; 56 events at age <80 years and 94 events at age >=80 years). Of these, 28 were the cause of in-hospital death and 24 were the underlying cause of death for persons not hospitalized. Stroke incidence rates were higher in persons who were older at baseline (age <80 versus >=80 years: 18.6 versus 26.7 per 1000 person-years; P<.001) and in men compared with women (25.9 versus 19.0 per 1000 person-years, respectively; P<.001).

Table 1Down compares annual incidence rates of stroke between persons carrying and not carrying specific apoE alleles, for the total population and according to baseline age and sex. Compared with persons without an {epsilon}2 allele ({epsilon}2-), carriers of an {epsilon}2 allele ({epsilon}2+) had lower risk of incident stroke. The protective effect of {epsilon}2+ resulted from the very low incidence rates of stroke in {epsilon}2 carriers aged 71 to 79 years (Table 1Down), with no effect detected in the older age group (Fig 1Down). Risk of stroke was not related to carrying an {epsilon}4 allele.


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Table 1. Incidence Rates of Stroke in Persons Carrying and Not Carrying an {epsilon}2 and an {epsilon}4 Allele in Their Apo-E Genotype, for the Total Population and According to Age and Sex



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Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier survival curves describing the risk of stroke over the follow-up according to age (71 to 79 versus >=80 years) and presence ({epsilon}2+) versus absence ({epsilon}2 -) of an {epsilon}2 allele in the apoE genotype.

When we restricted the analysis to persons aged 71 to 79 years at baseline and after adjustment for age and sex, persons with {epsilon}3/{epsilon}3, {epsilon}4/{epsilon}4, and {epsilon}3/{epsilon}4 isoforms were, respectively, 2.9 (95% CI, 1.2 to 6.6), 3.3 (95% CI, 1.4 to 8.0), and 3.2 (95% CI, 0.6 to 15.7) times more likely to develop a stroke over the follow-up compared with the reference group of {epsilon}2 carriers. No such effect was found when the same analysis was performed in those aged >=80 years.

Potential Confounders
Potential risk factors for stroke were compared among three partially overlapping groups of participants, defined according to presence of an {epsilon}2, {epsilon}3, and {epsilon}4 allele (Table 2Down). Total cholesterol levels were lower in individuals carrying an {epsilon}2 allele, while HDL cholesterol and triglycerides were higher. Differences were statistically significant only for total cholesterol and triglycerides. Participants with an {epsilon}4 showed, on average, higher total cholesterol and lower HDL cholesterol, although none of these effects was statistically significant. Cross-sectionally, apoE polymorphism was not associated with age, sex, blood pressure, prevalence of smoking, hypertension, CHD, and diabetes mellitus.


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Table 2. Potential Risk Factors for Stroke in Three Groups of Participants Selected According to Presence/Absence of at Least One Allele ({epsilon}2, {epsilon}3, and {epsilon}4) in the Apo-E Genotype

Multivariate Analysis
When we considered persons aged <80 years at baseline and carrying an {epsilon}2 as the reference group, those in the same age group but not carrying an {epsilon}2 had a threefold higher risk of developing a stroke, and those aged >=80 years were 3.8 times more likely to develop a stroke, regardless of their {epsilon}2 status (Table 3Down, model 1). These results remained substantially unchanged after adjustment for multiple potential confounders and serum lipids (Table 3Down, models 2 and 3). In the fully adjusted model, presence of hypertension and total cholesterol <160 mg/dL were still significant predictors of stroke.


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Table 3. Association Between Presence ({epsilon}2+)/Absence ({epsilon}2-) of an {epsilon}2 Allele in the Apo-E Genotype and Risk of Incident Stroke According to Age Group

We fitted two further models aimed at estimating the effect of apoE on the risk of developing a stroke between 70 and 79 years of age and after 80 years of age. In these models, age 70 and age 80, respectively, were considered the starting points for the time-to-event analyses, and participants were sequentially entered into the population at risk at the time of their baseline age. After adjustment for potential confounders, carrying an {epsilon}2 allele was associated with low risk of developing a stroke at ages between 70 and 79 years (RR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.0 to 0.7) but not after 80 years (RR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.7 to 2.2).

Fig 2Down illustrates the interaction between age and {epsilon}2 status on the risk of stroke. Findings are from a model similar to model 3 in Table 3Up, except that age is a continuous variable and an interaction term of age with {epsilon}2 status (age*{epsilon}2) is also included. The protective effect of {epsilon}2 decreased progressively with age and after 80 years was no longer statistically significant.



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Figure 2. Change of the RR of incident stroke associated with presence versus absence of an {epsilon}2 allele in the apoE genotype according to age. RRs were estimated from a proportional hazard model including age as a continuous variable, an "age*{epsilon}2 " interaction term, and the same potential confounders as in model 3 of Table 3Up. The dashed lines are 95% CIs estimated from the same model.


*    Discussion
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowSubjects and Methods
up arrowResults
*Discussion
down arrowReferences
 
Using data from a large prospective study of persons aged >=70 years, we found that, independent of other traditional risk factors, carrying an {epsilon}2 allele was associated with lower risk of ischemic stroke. This protective effect was limited to persons who developed a stroke within the age range 70 to 79 years, while no effect was detected in persons who developed a stroke when they were aged >=80 years. These findings are consistent with a protective effect of apoE {epsilon}2 for CHD, which has been found in young and middle-aged persons21 22 23 27 but not always confirmed in older populations.30 This is the first time this association has been reported for CVD.

Our results are in conflict with the case-control study by Courdec et al,32 in which the {epsilon}3/{epsilon}2 genotype was more frequent in stroke patients than in control subjects, but are compatible with data suggesting that apoE {epsilon}2 is underrepresented in patients with vascular dementia compared with control subjects.33 34 Two previous longitudinal studies did not demonstrate a significant relationship between apoE genetic polymorphism and risk of stroke.30 37 Both negative studies were performed in North European populations, which show distinct differences from other populations in dietary intake and distribution of apoE genotypes.46 However, the reason why the findings of those studies differ from ours remains unclear.

Despite the strong evidence that {epsilon}4 is a strong risk factor for atherosclerosis and that cross-sectional data have shown a relationship between {epsilon}4 and stroke,31 47 we found no relationship between {epsilon}4 and stroke. The detection of an effect for {epsilon}2 but not for {epsilon}4 suggests that the two alleles may play a role in atherosclerosis through different mechanisms and possibly with different "time tables" over the life span. This hypothesis is also suggested by studies on the relationship between apoE polymorphism and survival, showing a decreasing survival across {epsilon}4, {epsilon}3, and {epsilon}2 carriers that has been ascribed to the effect of apoE isoforms on atherosclerosis and perhaps dementia.48 In fact, {epsilon}4 and {epsilon}2 allelic frequencies tend to decline and to increase with age, respectively,48 but a reduction of {epsilon}4 is already present in octogenarians,2 while the increment in {epsilon}2 allelic frequency has been detected only in centenarians.48

Our data suggest that risk of stroke is affected by a complex interaction between the aging process and genetic and environmental risk factors, similar to that currently proposed for dementia7 8 9 and CHD.30 Several hypotheses may be proposed to explain the interaction between age and apoE genotype. If a specific risk factor is potentiated in the presence of a specific genotype, and if this risk factor is related to selective mortality at younger ages, the genotype may appear to have less of an impact at older ages. Indeed, a mechanism of selective mortality has been also suggested to explain why some risk factors for stroke, such as hypertension,49 become less important in old age. Furthermore, since the incidence rate of stroke increases with age, other (possibly not already identified) risk factors may play a critical role in the causation of strokes in older individuals. An alternative hypothesis is based on the fact that {epsilon}2 has been associated with both antiatherogenic2 14 and atherogenic50 changes, and the balance between these two effects may be different in different periods of life.

The lack of a cross-sectional relationship between apoE polymorphism and history of CVD is of concern. We hypothesized that the discrepancy between the findings of the cross-sectional and of the prospective analyses was due to the different methods used for the detection of prevalent and incident cases of stroke. In fact, since hospital discharge records were available only for the 3 years before genotyping, detection of CVD events before this period was based on self-report. Indeed, considering only hospitalizations over the 3 years before baseline, we found that participants who were admitted to the hospital for a stroke between 70 and 79 years of age (n=65; {epsilon}2+, 10.7%) were less likely to carry an {epsilon}2 allele compared with aged-matched control subjects (n=1335; {epsilon}2+, 17.7%). Analogously, participants who were hospitalized for a stroke at age >=80 years (n=37; {epsilon}2+, 13.5%) were less likely to carry an {epsilon}2+ compared with aged-matched control subjects (n=731; {epsilon}2+, 18.1%), although the difference was somewhat smaller than for those developing stroke at younger age. In similar analyses, the presence of the alleles {epsilon}3 and {epsilon}4 was not associated with different rates of past hospitalization for stroke over the 3 years before baseline.

A potential shortcoming of this study is the fact that the outcome, incident stroke, was detected from hospital discharge records and death certificates. Lower detection of stroke in {epsilon}2 carriers may result from persons being hospitalized less often for nonstroke-related conditions, such as CHD. However, our findings were substantially unchanged after we adjusted for number of hospital admissions over the follow-up. Furthermore, strokes that were not hospitalized remained undetected. There is, however, no reason why apoE polymorphism should influence the probability of being hospitalized after a stroke.

In conclusion, in this study we found an age-dependent protective effect of apoE {epsilon}2 on the risk of ischemic stroke. Our results should be interpreted with caution because they are based on subjects aged >70 years, and they need to be verified in populations with a wider age range. Recent findings emphasize that CVDs may play a role in age-related cognitive decline that is more important than previously expected36 51 52 and in fact promotes the clinical manifestations of Alzheimer's disease.53 Research addressing the interaction between apoE polymorphism and other risk factors for stroke may shed new light on our understanding of the pathophysiology of CVD in old age and its relationship to cognitive decline.


*    Selected Abbreviations and Acronyms
 
apoE = apolipoprotein E
CHD = coronary heart disease
CI = confidence interval
CVD = cerebrovascular disease
EPESE = Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly
ICD-9-CM = International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification
MEDPAR = Medicare Provider Analysis and Review
RR = relative risk


*    Acknowledgments
 
Data collection was supported by contract N01-AG-0 to 2105 from the National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Md. This study was completed when Dr Ferrucci was a Visiting Scientist at the National Institute on Aging.


*    Footnotes
 
Reprint requests to Luigi Ferrucci, MD, PhD, Epidemiology, Demography, and Biometry Program, National Institute on Aging, 7201 Wisconsin Ave, Gateway Building, Suite 3C-309, Bethesda, MD 20892.

Received March 27, 1997; revision received September 12, 1997; accepted September 12, 1997.


*    References
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowSubjects and Methods
up arrowResults
up arrowDiscussion
*References
 

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