(Stroke. 1997;28:2410-2416.)
© 1997 American Heart Association, Inc.
Articles |
2 Allele and Risk of Stroke in the Older Population
From the Geriatric Department, "I Fraticini," National Research Institute (INRCA), Florence, Italy (L.F.); Epidemiology, Demography, and Biometry Program, National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Md (L.F., J.M.G., T.H., M.-C.C., R.J.H.); Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Tennessee, Memphis (M.P.); Neurology Service, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (B.T.H.); and Department of Preventive Medicine and Environmental Health, University of Iowa, Iowa City (R.B.W.).
| Abstract |
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4 allele and lower in those carrying an
2 allele, but
the effect on cerebrovascular disease is controversial. We estimated
the risk of stroke associated with different apoE genotypes in
older persons.
Methods At the sixth annual follow-up of the Iowa cohort of the
Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly, 1664
persons aged
71 years and free of stroke were genotyped for
apo E. Occurrence of ischemic strokes was prospectively
assessed from subsequent hospital discharge records and death
certificates.
Results One hundred fifty persons had an ischemic stroke
over the subsequent 5 years (21.2 per 1000 person-years). The presence
of
3 and
4 did not influence stroke risk. Among persons aged <80
years at the time of genotyping,
2 carriers had lower risk of
incident stroke, while no effect was detected in the older group.
Compared with
2 carriers aged 70 to 79 years (reference group),
those in the same age group and not carrying an
2 had 2.6-fold
higher risk of incident stroke, and those aged
80 years had even
higher risks of stroke but without any difference according to
presence/absence of
2 (relative risks 3.6 and 3.3). Results remained
substantially unchanged when adjusted for potential confounders and in
models estimating the effect of apoE polymorphism on the risk of
developing a stroke at ages between 70 and 79 years (56 events) and
separately at ages
80 years (94 events).
Conclusions The conditioning influence of age on the protection
conferred by the apoE
2 allele on stroke risk may account for
previous controversies. This hypothesis should be verified in a
population with a wider age range.
Key Words: aging apolipoproteins risk factors stroke
| Introduction |
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2,
3, and
4, encoding, respectively, the three
protein isoforms E2, E3, and E4.1 3
Most current research on apoE focuses on
4 and
2 being associated
with, respectively, increased and decreased risk of both sporadic and
late-onset familial Alzheimer's disease,4 5 6 7 8
although after 80 years of age the association becomes less
consistent.9 10 Many experimental and clinical
observations also suggest that apoE is implicated in the
atherosclerotic process through multiple local and general
mechanisms.2 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Epidemiological studies performed
mainly in young and middle-aged persons have shown that severity of
atherosclerosis in the thoracic aorta,21
risk22 and severity23 of CHD, chance of
restenosis after angioplasty and
endoarteriectomy,24 25 26 family history of
CHD,27 and CHD mortality28 are higher in
persons carrying an
4 allele and lower in those carrying an
2
allele. These associations are explained only in part by
differences in serum lipid concentrations.29 Analogous with
findings for Alzheimer's disease, the association between apoE
polymorphism and CHD is less evident in older
populations.30
A logical extension of the findings on CHD is to hypothesize that apoE
polymorphism is also implicated in cerebrovascular
atherosclerosis. Pedro-Botet et al31 found
that patients with ischemic strokes were more likely to carry
an
4 allele than age-matched control subjects. However, in a
case-control study by Courdec et al,32 patients affected by
ischemic stroke had an
2/
3 genotype more often
than nonstroke control subjects but less often than younger healthy
blood donors. Two studies found a higher prevalence of
4 in patients
with multi-infarct dementia compared with older control
subjects.33 34 35 There is evidence of a synergistic
interaction of
4 and severity of atherosclerosis for
the risk of dementia.36
In contrast, two prospective studies in older persons performed in
Finland30 and in Sweden37 failed to show a
significant relationship between apoE polymorphism and risk of
stroke. In the Finnish study the apoE polymorphism also had no
effect on CHD.30 In the Swedish study37 the
rates of stroke showed a rising, but not significant, trend across the
2/
3,
3/
3, and
4/
3 genotypes, and the fraction
of cognitive impairment attributable to stroke was lowest (2%) in the
2/
3 group compared with the
3/
3 and the
3/
4 groups
(9%).
We tested the hypothesis that apoE polymorphism is related to the risk of stroke, but analogous to what has been suggested for Alzheimer's disease and CHD, the strength of this association is age dependent. This may explain some of the inconsistencies in the findings of previous studies.
| Subjects and Methods |
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65 years living in two Iowa counties, and follow-up
data were collected yearly for 7 years. Blood specimens were obtained
from 1940 (76.1%) of the 2548 subjects who were found alive and were
reinterviewed for the sixth annual follow-up in 1988. Of these, 1898
had apoE genotyping.
Detection of Strokes
Occurrence of stroke was assessed by examining hospital
discharge records and death certificates. The MEDPAR files, which
include data on hospitalizations for persons covered by Medicare
program part A (97% of the US population aged
65
years),39 supplied information on hospital admissions,
including discharge diagnoses coded according to the
ICD-9-CM.40 Uniform data from these files were available
from 1985 through 1992. Nine persons who could not be matched with the
MEDPAR files were excluded from the analysis.
Vital status was established from a subsequent follow-up, contact with proxies, and the National Death Index. ICD-9-CM codes for underlying causes of death were obtained from death certificates.
Codes for ischemic/thrombotic or generic strokes (ICD-9-CM codes 434 to 434.9, 436.0) listed as the principal discharge diagnosis or reported as the underlying cause of death were considered stroke events.
ApoE Genotype and Other Potential Risk Factors
Determination of apoE genotype was performed by
restriction enzyme digestion of an apoE polymerase chain reaction
product derived from blood samples.41 Several potential
risk factors for stroke were examined. Smoking status was classified as
current/past smoker and never smoked, based on self-report. At each
follow-up participants were asked if they had ever been told by a
doctor that they had diabetes, heart attack, or stroke. Blood pressure
was measured at the sixth follow-up of the EPESE, the zero time for
this analysis, by trained interviewers. The average of two
readings was used in the analysis. Hypertension was considered
present if the subject reported a physician's diagnosis and was
taking any antihypertensive drug or if blood pressure values exceeded
90 mm Hg diastolic or 160 mm Hg
systolic.
Blood samples were collected in a nonfasting state at participants'
homes and processed by a commercial laboratory (Nichols Institute, San
Juan Capistrano, Calif). Total cholesterol and
triglyceride concentrations were measured with the use of
standard enzymatic methods. For the multivariate
analysis, participants were classified into four total
cholesterol categories:
160, 161 to 199, 200 to 239, and
240 mg/dL; three HDL-cholesterol categories: <35, 35 to
59, and
60 mg/dL; and three triglyceride categories:
<200, 200 to 300, and
300 mg/dL. The choice of the cut points
follows the National Cholesterol Education Program
criteria,42 with an additional category for low
cholesterol, which is an important risk factor in older
persons.43 The number of hospital admissions before stroke
or before censoring was also calculated.
Population at Risk
A total of 225 persons had a history of stroke or had been
hospitalized for CVD (ICD-9-CM codes 431 to 436) at or before the sixth
annual follow-up. The prospective analysis presented in
this report uses data from the 1664 participants without history of
stroke at baseline. In agreement with previous cross-sectional findings
from the same data set,41 we found similar distributions of
apoE genotypes in those with and without a history of CVD.
Data Analysis
Tests for association between apoE alleles, potential
confounders, and risk of incident stroke were fitted by using single
gene models that gave equal weight to heterozygotes and homozygotes for
a given allele.44 The association between apoE
polymorphism and potential risk factors for stroke was explored by
dividing the study population into three partially overlapping groups,
according to presence of the alleles
2,
3, or
4 in the
apoE genotype. The effects of presence versus absence of
specific alleles in the apoE genotype on the distribution
of potential confounders were simultaneously estimated in
linear (continuous variables) and logistic (dichotomous
variables) regression models.
The first occurrence of stroke was utilized in the analyses.
Stroke incidence rates are reported as events per 1000 person-years.
RRs and their 95% CIs of incident stroke, comparing persons carrying
and not carrying a specific allele, were estimated by Cox
proportional hazards regression models. Participants with no stroke
events were censored at the end of 1992 or at death, whichever came
first. The interaction between age and carrying an
2 on the risk of
stroke was tested both by creating indicator variables for the
cross-combination of age (<80 versus
80 years) and
2 (
2+
versus
2-) and by introducing an interaction "age*
2" term in
the model. The proportionality of the hazards, which is the main
assumption of this regression technique, was verified by plotting the
log (-log) survival function and the baseline hazard functions against
time for the four groups (70 to 79
2+; 70 to 79
2-;
80
2+;
80
2-). Both the log (-log) survival function and the hazard
functions were roughly parallel for these four groups, suggesting
proportionality of the hazards over the entire follow-up. The six most
influential observations were identified by calculating for each of the
participant the likelihood displacement statistic,45 which
indicates how much the 2-log likelihood of the model will change if the
individual is removed. After any of these subjects were excluded from
the analysis, the findings of the analysis were very
similar and their interpretation did not change.
Further models were created to estimate the risk of developing a stroke
at a specific age and how apoE polymorphism affects this risk. Two
models were fitted to examine separately the age ranges 70 to 79 and
80. These two models, rather than setting the zero time at the date
of the baseline interview, considered age 70 and age 80 as time 0 for
the time-to-event analyses. Participants were sequentially
entered into the population at risk at the time of their baseline age
and were considered at risk up to the time when they developed an
event, died, or were censored, whichever came first. The first model
included only participants who were aged <80 years at baseline. Of
these, those who survived free of stroke beyond 80 years were censored
at that age. The second model included participants who were aged
80
years at baseline and participants who had survived free of stroke
beyond 80 years of age. This last group was entered in the population
at risk at age 80.
| Results |
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2/
2, 15.2% for
3/
2, 57.9% for
3/
3, 22.5% for
3/
4, 2.0% for
4/
2, and 1.8% for
4/
4, with small, nonsignificant
differences according to age and sex.
ApoE Polymorphism and Risk of Stroke
Over the follow-up (median follow-up time, 4.2 years), 150 stroke
events were recorded (21.2 per 1000 person-years; 56 events at age
<80 years and 94 events at age
80 years). Of these, 28 were the
cause of in-hospital death and 24 were the underlying cause of death
for persons not hospitalized. Stroke incidence rates were higher in
persons who were older at baseline (age <80 versus
80 years: 18.6
versus 26.7 per 1000 person-years; P<.001) and in men
compared with women (25.9 versus 19.0 per 1000 person-years,
respectively; P<.001).
Table 1
compares annual incidence rates
of stroke between persons carrying and not carrying specific apoE
alleles, for the total population and according to baseline age and
sex. Compared with persons without an
2 allele (
2-),
carriers of an
2 allele (
2+) had lower risk of incident
stroke. The protective effect of
2+ resulted from the very low
incidence rates of stroke in
2 carriers aged 71 to 79 years (Table 1
), with no effect detected in the older age group (Fig 1
). Risk of stroke was not related to
carrying an
4 allele.
|
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When we restricted the analysis to persons aged 71 to 79 years
at baseline and after adjustment for age and sex, persons with
3/
3,
4/
4, and
3/
4 isoforms were, respectively, 2.9
(95% CI, 1.2 to 6.6), 3.3 (95% CI, 1.4 to 8.0), and 3.2 (95% CI, 0.6
to 15.7) times more likely to develop a stroke over the follow-up
compared with the reference group of
2 carriers. No such effect was
found when the same analysis was performed in those aged
80
years.
Potential Confounders
Potential risk factors for stroke were compared among three
partially overlapping groups of participants, defined according to
presence of an
2,
3, and
4 allele (Table 2
). Total cholesterol levels
were lower in individuals carrying an
2 allele, while HDL
cholesterol and triglycerides were higher.
Differences were statistically significant only for total
cholesterol and triglycerides. Participants
with an
4 showed, on average, higher total cholesterol
and lower HDL cholesterol, although none of these effects
was statistically significant. Cross-sectionally, apoE polymorphism
was not associated with age, sex, blood pressure, prevalence of
smoking, hypertension, CHD, and diabetes mellitus.
|
Multivariate Analysis
When we considered persons aged <80 years at baseline and
carrying an
2 as the reference group, those in the same age group
but not carrying an
2 had a threefold higher risk of developing a
stroke, and those aged
80 years were 3.8 times more likely to develop
a stroke, regardless of their
2 status (Table 3
, model 1). These results remained
substantially unchanged after adjustment for multiple potential
confounders and serum lipids (Table 3
, models 2 and 3). In the fully
adjusted model, presence of hypertension and total
cholesterol <160 mg/dL were still significant predictors
of stroke.
|
We fitted two further models aimed at estimating the effect of apoE on
the risk of developing a stroke between 70 and 79 years of age and
after 80 years of age. In these models, age 70 and age 80,
respectively, were considered the starting points for the time-to-event
analyses, and participants were sequentially entered into the
population at risk at the time of their baseline age. After adjustment
for potential confounders, carrying an
2 allele was associated
with low risk of developing a stroke at ages between 70 and 79 years
(RR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.0 to 0.7) but not after 80 years (RR, 1.2; 95%
CI, 0.7 to 2.2).
Fig 2
illustrates the interaction between
age and
2 status on the risk of stroke. Findings are from a model
similar to model 3 in Table 3
, except that age is a continuous
variable and an interaction term of age with
2 status (age*
2)
is also included. The protective effect of
2 decreased progressively
with age and after 80 years was no longer statistically
significant.
|
| Discussion |
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70
years, we found that, independent of other traditional risk factors,
carrying an
2 allele was associated with lower risk of
ischemic stroke. This protective effect was limited to persons
who developed a stroke within the age range 70 to 79 years, while no
effect was detected in persons who developed a stroke when they were
aged
80 years. These findings are consistent with a
protective effect of apoE
2 for CHD, which has been found in young
and middle-aged persons21 22 23 27 but not always confirmed
in older populations.30 This is the first time this
association has been reported for CVD.
Our results are in conflict with the case-control study by Courdec et
al,32 in which the
3/
2 genotype was more
frequent in stroke patients than in control subjects, but are
compatible with data suggesting that apoE
2 is
underrepresented in patients with vascular dementia
compared with control subjects.33 34 Two previous
longitudinal studies did not demonstrate a significant relationship
between apoE genetic polymorphism and risk of
stroke.30 37 Both negative studies were performed in North
European populations, which show distinct differences from other
populations in dietary intake and distribution of apoE
genotypes.46 However, the reason why the findings
of those studies differ from ours remains unclear.
Despite the strong evidence that
4 is a strong risk factor for
atherosclerosis and that cross-sectional data have
shown a relationship between
4 and stroke,31 47 we found
no relationship between
4 and stroke. The detection of an effect for
2 but not for
4 suggests that the two alleles may play a role
in atherosclerosis through different mechanisms and
possibly with different "time tables" over the life span. This
hypothesis is also suggested by studies on the relationship between
apoE polymorphism and survival, showing a decreasing survival
across
4,
3, and
2 carriers that has been ascribed to the
effect of apoE isoforms on atherosclerosis and perhaps
dementia.48 In fact,
4 and
2 allelic frequencies tend
to decline and to increase with age, respectively,48 but a
reduction of
4 is already present in octogenarians,2
while the increment in
2 allelic frequency has been detected only in
centenarians.48
Our data suggest that risk of stroke is affected by a complex
interaction between the aging process and genetic and environmental
risk factors, similar to that currently proposed for
dementia7 8 9 and CHD.30 Several hypotheses may
be proposed to explain the interaction between age and apoE
genotype. If a specific risk factor is potentiated in the
presence of a specific genotype, and if this risk factor is
related to selective mortality at younger ages, the genotype
may appear to have less of an impact at older ages. Indeed, a mechanism
of selective mortality has been also suggested to explain why some risk
factors for stroke, such as hypertension,49 become less
important in old age. Furthermore, since the incidence rate of stroke
increases with age, other (possibly not already identified) risk
factors may play a critical role in the causation of strokes in older
individuals. An alternative hypothesis is based on the fact that
2
has been associated with both antiatherogenic2 14 and
atherogenic50 changes, and the balance between these two
effects may be different in different periods of life.
The lack of a cross-sectional relationship between apoE
polymorphism and history of CVD is of concern. We hypothesized that
the discrepancy between the findings of the cross-sectional and of the
prospective analyses was due to the different methods used for
the detection of prevalent and incident cases of stroke. In fact, since
hospital discharge records were available only for the 3 years
before genotyping, detection of CVD events before this period was based
on self-report. Indeed, considering only hospitalizations over the 3
years before baseline, we found that participants who were admitted to
the hospital for a stroke between 70 and 79 years of age (n=65;
2+,
10.7%) were less likely to carry an
2 allele compared with
aged-matched control subjects (n=1335;
2+, 17.7%). Analogously,
participants who were hospitalized for a stroke at age
80 years
(n=37;
2+, 13.5%) were less likely to carry an
2+ compared with
aged-matched control subjects (n=731;
2+, 18.1%), although the
difference was somewhat smaller than for those developing stroke at
younger age. In similar analyses, the presence of the
alleles
3 and
4 was not associated with different rates of
past hospitalization for stroke over the 3 years before baseline.
A potential shortcoming of this study is the fact that the outcome,
incident stroke, was detected from hospital discharge records and
death certificates. Lower detection of stroke in
2 carriers may
result from persons being hospitalized less often for nonstroke-related
conditions, such as CHD. However, our findings were substantially
unchanged after we adjusted for number of hospital admissions over the
follow-up. Furthermore, strokes that were not hospitalized remained
undetected. There is, however, no reason why apoE polymorphism
should influence the probability of being hospitalized after a
stroke.
In conclusion, in this study we found an age-dependent protective
effect of apoE
2 on the risk of ischemic stroke. Our results
should be interpreted with caution because they are based on subjects
aged >70 years, and they need to be verified in populations with a
wider age range. Recent findings emphasize that CVDs may play a role in
age-related cognitive decline that is more important than previously
expected36 51 52 and in fact promotes the clinical
manifestations of Alzheimer's disease.53 Research
addressing the interaction between apoE polymorphism and other risk
factors for stroke may shed new light on our understanding of the
pathophysiology of CVD in old age and its relationship to cognitive
decline.
| Selected Abbreviations and Acronyms |
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| Acknowledgments |
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| Footnotes |
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Received March 27, 1997; revision received September 12, 1997; accepted September 12, 1997.
| References |
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