(Stroke. 1997;28:762-767.)
© 1997 American Heart Association, Inc.
Articles |
From the Department of Internal Medicine, Norrland University Hospital, Umeå, Sweden.
Correspondence to Thomas Mooe, MD, Department of Internal Medicine, Norrland University Hospital, S-901 85 Umeå, Sweden. E-mail thomas.mooe{at}medicin.umu.se
| Abstract |
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Methods In this case-control study, from a population of approximately 310 000 25- to 74-year-old inhabitants, case subjects with a stroke within 1 month after an MI were prospectively recorded in the population-based Northern Sweden MONICA (Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease) study from 1985 to 1994. The same number of control subjects with an MI but without a stroke were matched for age, sex, and year when MI occurred.
Results One hundred twenty-four case subjects were recorded. Fifty-one percent (63/124) of the strokes occurred within 5 days after onset of MI. The odds ratios (ORs) of an MI-related stroke were for a history of hypertension 1.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0 to 3.2), previous stroke 2.4 (CI, 1.0 to 6.1), chronic atrial fibrillation 3.0 (CI, 1.1 to 9.2), onset of atrial fibrillation during the hospital stay 3.5 (CI, 1.4 to 10.1), ST-segment elevation 2.4 (CI, 1.4 to 4.6), and anterior infarction 1.5 (CI, 0.9 to 2.6). In a conditional multiple logistic regression model, previous stroke (OR, 2.8; CI, 1.1 to 7.6), chronic atrial fibrillation (OR, 3.8; CI, 1.3 to 11.0), new-onset atrial fibrillation (OR, 4.6; CI, 1.6 to 12.8), and ST-segment elevation (OR, 3.4; CI, 1.6 to 7.4) were independent predictors of stroke. MIs preceding stroke were larger and in 51% were located anteriorly. There was a decrease in the incidence and event rate of MI-related stroke during the study period (P<.01 and P<.05, respectively).
Conclusions The risk of stroke is highest the first 5 days after MI. Only approximately half of the strokes occurring the first month after an MI are preceded by an anterior MI. The most important predictors of MI-related stroke are atrial fibrillation (chronic or new onset), ST elevation, and a history of a previous stroke. There is a long-term trend toward a lower incidence of MI-related stroke. These findings have important implications concerning both the pathophysiology and prevention of MI-related stroke.
Key Words: case-control studies cerebral ischemia myocardial infarction risk factors
| Introduction |
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The aims of the present study were to examine the secular trend in the incidence of ischemic stroke the first month after acute MI in an unselected population, to study the time relationship between MI and stroke, to identify risk factors for MI-related stroke, and to study the long-term prognosis.
| Subjects and Methods |
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The WHO definition of stroke was used: rapidly developing clinical signs of focal (or global) disturbance of cerebral function lasting more than 24 hours (unless interrupted by surgery or death) with no apparent cause other than a vascular origin.10 The inclusion period was between January 1, 1985, and December 31, 1994. Seven subjects with a hemorrhagic stroke diagnosed by CT, all occurring after thrombolytic therapy, were excluded from the study.
A diagnosis of MI was based on either autopsy findings or typical chest
pain, electrocardiographic findings, and a diagnostic
elevation of cardiac enzymes. Two of three of the clinical criteria
were required. An anterior MI was defined as either the development of
pathological Q waves in two or more precordial leads or an
ST-segment elevation
0.15 mV in two or more of leads V1 through V3 or
0.1 mV in two or more of leads V4 through V6.
An ST-segment elevation
0.15 mV in two or more of leads V1 through V3
or
0.1 mV in two or more of leads V4 through V6 or the extremity
leads was evaluated as a predictor of stroke.
Patients with a diagnosis of MI but without a complicating stroke during the first month were used as control subjects. Each case subject was matched to one control subject for age, sex, and year of MI onset.
All information of the case patients and control subjects was obtained from medical records, registry data, and death certificates.
Incidence and event rate were used to describe the occurrence of stroke within 1 month after MI. Event rate was defined as the rate of stroke in a group of patients with MI. The yearly number of patients younger than 75 years with an MI was achieved from hospital statistics and used for calculation of MI-related stroke event rate. Incidence was defined as the number of MI-related strokes per 100 000 25- to 74-year-old inhabitants per year.
Mortality follow-up was made until December 31, 1995, one year after the end of inclusion.
Statistical Analysis
Data were analyzed with the STATISTICA 4.0 software
modules (StatSoft Inc). Group data are expressed as mean±SD for
continuous variables and as rates for variables on a nominal
scale. Differences between two means were assessed with the
t test for unpaired data or the Mann-Whitney U
test when appropriate. Differences between proportions were
analyzed with the
2 test. Differences in
stroke event rate associated with age and year of onset, respectively,
were assessed by linear regression. A difference in stroke incidence
associated with year of onset was also assessed by linear regression.
The null hypothesis was rejected for values of P<.05.
The risk of MI-related stroke associated with different clinical characteristics is given by OR with 95% CI for a matched case-control study.11 Conditional multiple logistic regression (Stata 4.0, Stata Corp) was used to identify independent predictors of MI-related stroke. Variables associated with a risk for MI-related stroke in univariate analysis or considered to be of potential clinical interest were included in the model. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were calculated for patients with and without MI-related stroke and compared between groups with the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors of death.
| Results |
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During the 10-year period, 11 620 patients younger than 75 years had
an MI, resulting in an overall event rate of ischemic
MI-related stroke of 1.07%. The event rate in women was 1.05% and in
men 1.08%. Seventy-eight strokes occurred during the first 5 years
compared with 46 during the later 5 years. The annual stroke event rate
and the incidence of MI-related ischemic stroke decreased
during the study period (P<.05 and P<.01,
respectively) (Figs 1
and 2
).
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Fig 3
shows the time relationship between MI and onset
of stroke. Fifty-one percent of the strokes occurred within 5 days
after first appearance of MI symptoms.
|
Clinical characteristics, medical treatment at admission, and clinical
findings during the hospital stay of the case and control subjects are
compared in Tables 1
and 2
. Patients with
an MI-related stroke more often had a history of hypertension, previous
stroke, and chronic atrial fibrillation. The medication at admission
was similar. ST-segment elevation, onset of atrial fibrillation after
the debut of MI, and pulmonary congestion on the chest
radiogram were more common in patients with MI-related stroke. These
patients also had more extensive infarctions according to cardiac
enzyme levels. Anterior location of the infarction tended to be
marginally more common in patients with stroke (51% versus 40%;
P=.08).
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Autopsy or echocardiography was performed in 37 of 124 patients (30%) with a stroke and in 35 of 124 patients (28%) without a stroke. A left ventricular thrombus was found in 7 of 37 (19%) versus 2 of 35 (6%) (P=.09).
The risk of MI-related stroke calculated as matched ORs for
hypertension, previous stroke, chronic atrial fibrillation, new-onset
atrial fibrillation, ST-segment elevation, and anterior location of MI
is shown in Table 3
. In a conditional multiple logistic
regression model (P<.001), a previous stroke (OR, 2.8; 95%
CI, 1.1 to 7.6), chronic atrial fibrillation (OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.3 to
11.0), new-onset atrial fibrillation (OR, 4.6; 95% CI, 1.6 to 12.8),
and ST-segment elevation (OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.6 to 7.4) were
independent predictors of stroke, whereas hypertension, anterior
location of the MI, previous MI, and signs of heart failure were
not.
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The MI-related stroke event rate increased by age (P<.05)
(Fig 4
). No stroke occurred before the age of 40 years.
A marked increase in stroke event rate was observed in patients 65
years or older.
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Fig 5
shows the long-term survival in case and
control subjects (P<.0001). Patients with a stroke after MI
had a 75% cumulative survival at 28 days and a 54% cumulative
survival at 1 year. The corresponding figures for patients without a
stroke were 85% and 77%. In a Cox regression model including age,
sex, post-MI stroke, and the clinical variables in Table 3
, only
occurrence of stroke was independently predictive of death.
|
| Discussion |
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The lower event rate during the last years of the study period, approximately 0.8%, may have several explanations. The general care of patients with acute MI has gradually changed with early mobilization and routine use of thrombolytics and aspirin. Aspirin has shown an impressive reduction (42%) of post-MI stroke in a large randomized study.21
After adjustment for other clinical variables, atrial fibrillation
(chronic or new onset), previous stroke, and ST-segment elevation were
identified as independent predictors of stroke in the present
study. Older age was also associated with a higher event rate of stroke
(Fig 4
). Our results agree favorably with previous
findings.19
The mortality is very high if an MI is complicated by a stroke. The
increased mortality is most obvious the first few months after the
infarction (Fig 5
).
Preventive measures are often considered when a patient presents with an anterior infarction, particularly if a left ventricular thrombus is discovered.25 However, the mechanisms behind MI-related stroke remain largely unresolved. In particular, our data show that anterior location of the infarction is not an important predictor of stroke. This is in agreement with results from multivariate analyses in previous large studies.19 22 An anterior infarction precedes approximately 50% of MI-related strokes. A left ventricular thrombus develops in 30% to 40% of anterior infarctions but in only 1.5% to 3% in nonanterior infarctions.3 7 26 Moreover, only 19% (7/37) of patients with a stroke undergoing autopsy or echocardiography in the present study had a ventricular thrombus. Consequently, embolization from a left ventricular thrombus can explain only a lesser fraction of MI-related strokes. Hemodynamic changes, atherosclerosis in cerebral vessels, the inflammatory response to infarction, and hemostatic abnormalities27 28 may be other factors predisposing to ischemic stroke.
A limitation of the present study is that a pathological stroke diagnosis is lacking in 33% of the patients. CT was not a routine procedure in all hospitals at the beginning of this study. This means that some hemorrhagic strokes may have been misclassified as ischemic. However, without thrombolytic treatment an intracranial hemorrhage after MI is very infrequent. In the two largest placebo-controlled trials of thrombolytic treatment after MI, no hemorrhagic strokes were found in the placebo groups.21 22 Moreover, a hemorrhagic stroke after administration of thrombolytics usually occurs within 24 hours,21 22 29 but the strokes in the 7 patients given thrombolytic therapy in the present study all occurred after 48 hours (median, 10 days). Another limitation is that echocardiography or autopsy was undertaken in only approximately 30% of the patients. However, the number of examined patients (n=72) seems sufficient to confirm that the proportion of patients with a ventricular thrombus was relatively low.
We conclude that the incidence of ischemic post-MI stroke
has decreased during the recent decade, and this is possibly related to
changes in treatment, including the routine use of
thrombolytics and aspirin. Although several independent
risk factors for MI-related stroke can be identified, the precise
mechanism of stroke remains uncertain in most cases. The majority of
strokes occur early (Fig 3
6 ), which is important if
preventive treatment is considered. However, if anticoagulant treatment
is started, aspirin is usually withdrawn despite its well-documented
stroke-preventive effect. Moreover, a large proportion of strokes in
patients with a verified left ventricular thrombus occur
despite administration of anticoagulants,30 and the risk
of serious bleeding must also be considered if anticoagulants are
used.8 31 Because of the low stroke event rate, any
prophylactic intervention must have few side effects, and
if other indications for anticoagulants (eg, chronic atrial
fibrillation) are lacking, aspirin seems to be a reasonable alternative
to anticoagulants in anteriorly located infarctions as well.
| Selected Abbreviations and Acronyms |
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| Acknowledgments |
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Received November 4, 1996; revision received January 14, 1997; accepted January 16, 1997.
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