(Stroke. 1998;29:2277-2284.)
© 1998 American Heart Association, Inc.
Original Contributions |
From the Cardiovascular Health Research Unit (S.M.S., D.S.S., W.T.L.), the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Community Medicine (S.M.S., D.S.S., W.T.L.), the Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine (D.S.S.), the Department of Neurology, School of Medicine (W.T.L.), and the Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine (T.E.R.), University of Washington, Seattle, Wash; Research and Evaluation, Southern California Permanente Medical Group (D.B.P.), Pasadena, Calif; Division of Research, KP Medical Care Program, Northern California (S.S.), Oakland, Calif; and the Contraception and Reproductive Health Branch, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (J.K.), Bethesda, Md.
Correspondence and reprint requests to Stephen M. Schwartz, PhD, Cardiovascular Health Research Unit, 1730 Minor Ave, Suite 1360, Seattle, WA 98101. E-mail stevesch{at}u.washington.edu
| Abstract |
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MethodsWe analyzed interview data from 175 ischemic stroke cases, 198 hemorrhagic stroke cases, and 1191 control subjects 18 to 44 years of age.
ResultsFor ischemic stroke, the pooled odds ratio (pOR)
adjusted for stroke risk factors for current use of low-dose OCPs
compared with women who had never used OCP (never users) was 0.66 (95%
confidence interval [CI], 0.29 to 1.47) and compared with women not
currently using OCPs (nonusers) the pOR was 1.09 (95% CI, 0.54
to 2.21). For hemorrhagic stroke, the pOR for current use of low-dose
OCPs compared with never users was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.46 to 1.93) and
compared with nonusers the pOR was 1.11 (95% CI, 0.61 to
2.01). The pORs for current low-dose OCP use and either stroke type
were not elevated among women who were
35 years, cigarette smokers,
obese, or not receiving medical therapy for hypertension. pORs for
current low-dose OCP use were 2.08 (95% CI, 1.19 to 3.65) for
ischemic stroke and 2.15 (95% CI, 0.85 to 5.45) for
hemorrhagic stroke among women reporting a history of migraine but were
not elevated among women without such a history. Past OCP use
(irrespective of formulation) was inversely related to ischemic
stroke but unrelated to hemorrhagic stroke.
ConclusionsWomen who use low-dose OCPs are, in the aggregate, not at increased risk of stroke. Studies are needed to clarify the risk of stroke among users who may be susceptible on the basis of age, smoking, obesity, hypertension, or migraine history.
Key Words: contraceptives, oral stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, ischemic women
| Introduction |
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Two of the recent population-based case-control studies of OCP use and stroke in young1 4 women were funded simultaneously in 1991 by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. The first study was conducted among women enrolled in the Northern and Southern California Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Plans,1 and the other study was conducted among women residing in 3 counties in western Washington State.4 These studies provide the only data addressing the risk of stroke among current users of low-dose oral contraceptives in the United States. The study designs, including recruitment plans and data collection instruments, were developed independently by investigators at the 2 sites. However, because the investigators expected the incidence of stroke in young women to be low in both populations, the 2 groups consulted during the design phases to establish plans for pooled analyses of the data from the 2 studies. These analyses would theoretically permit more extensive and precise examination of the relationship between OCP use and stroke than could be achieved at either study site alone. This report describes the results of these pooled analyses.
| Subjects and Methods |
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Case Definition, Identification, and Recruitment
Kaiser Permanente Study
Eligible cases were all 18 to 44 year-old female members of the
Kaiser Permanente (KP) Medical Care Plans of Northern and Southern
California diagnosed with incident stroke from May 1991 through August
1994 (Northern California) or July 1991 through August 1994 (Southern
California). Potentially eligible cases were identified through review
and abstraction of hospital admission and discharge records,
emergency department logs, and records of payments for out-of-plan
hospitalizations. Four-hundred three eligible cases were identified in
the KP study, of whom 357 patients or proxies (89%) were interviewed
for the study.
University of Washington Study
Eligible cases were all 18-to 44-year-old female residents of
King, Pierce, or Snohomish counties, Washington, who were free of major
clinical coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease and
who were diagnosed with stroke between July 1991 and February 1995.
Potentially eligible cases were identified through discharge diagnoses
and review and abstraction of medical records at all acute care
hospitals serving the 3 counties, supplemented with monthly letters to
neurologists, neurosurgeons, and physiatrists, and regular review of
death certificates. Of 249 eligible cases identified in the University
of Washington (UW) study, 183 patients or their proxies (73%) were
interviewed.
In both studies, incident stroke was defined as the new, rapid onset of symptoms and signs consistent with loss of brain function that lasted at least 24 hours and could not be ascribed to subdural hematoma, brain tumor, infection, seizure, or other neurological disease such as multiple sclerosis. For this analysis, confirmed incident strokes were first classified as either of arterial or venous origin. Arterial strokes were further subclassified as hemorrhagic events, ischemic events, or other, which included arterial dissections. Hemorrhagic strokes were further classified according to location of bleed (subarachnoid versus intracerebral). In the KP study, 2 physicians reviewed medical records to establish eligibility and classify potential cases, with discrepancies in their classification reviewed by a single board-certified neurologist. In the UW study, a single board-certified neurologist reviewed the records to establish eligibility and classify potential cases. A reliability substudy demonstrated high agreement (89.5%) between the 2 approaches in the classification of patients as having had a stroke (versus no stroke) and complete concordance as to stroke type (hemorrhagic versus ischemic) among stroke patients who were classified in these 2 categories.
Control Definition, Identification, and Recruitment
Kaiser Permanente Study
For each case patient, 3 control subjects matched on exact year
of birth and facility of usual care were selected from among women who
were KP Medical Care Program members in the same calendar year that the
case's stroke occurred. An attempt was made to recruit 3 interviewed
controls per interviewed case. The response rate among first-identified
controls was 76%.
University of Washington Study
A set of 18- to 44-year-old female residents of King, Pierce,
and Snohomish counties during the case diagnosis period was selected
for comparison with both stroke and MI cases. These women were
identified using random-digit telephone dialing, with stratified
recruitment that mirrored the combined age distribution of the stroke
and MI cases. Only women who were free of major clinical
coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were
included. The response rate incorporating both the household screening
phase of random-digit dialing and the in-person interview phase was
73%.
Sources of Information and Definition of Variables
Cases and controls in both studies participated in structured
in-person interviews to obtain information on OCP use as well other
known or suspected cardiovascular risk factors. When a
case patient was unable to participate due to death or mental
impairment, we interviewed a proxy respondent. Written informed consent
was provided by all participants; data collection procedures were
approved by the institutional review boards of the KP Medical Care
Plans and the UW. All information was collected for the period prior to
each woman's predefined reference date, which was the date of stroke
onset for cases. For a control, the reference date was either the same
date as the stroke onset date of the case to which she was matched (KP
study) or a randomly assigned date selected from among the possible
stroke onset dates (UW study). In the KP study, a woman was considered
a current OCP user if she reported that she was taking OCPs in the
month before reference date. In the UW study, OCP use was ascertained
according to calendar months. To ensure that women who were using OCPs
in the month before reference date were included as current users, we
classified a woman from the UW study as a current user if she reported
taking OCPs in either the same calendar month as her reference date or
the calendar month before her reference date. In each study, a woman
was classified as a past OCP user if she had used OCPs but did not meet
the definition of a current user. The remaining women were classified
as having never used these medications. Although the interview
instruments used in the 2 studies were not identical, we judged that
the questions used to obtain information on OCP use and key
cardiovascular risk factors used similar wording and
response coding schemes to permit pooling of the data. The most
substantial difference in wording was for the question on history of
migraine headaches: in the KP study, each woman was asked whether a
doctor had ever said that she had had a migraine headache, whereas in
the UW study, each woman was asked if she had ever visited a doctor for
a migraine headache.
Exclusions Prior to Data Pooling
For this pooled analysis we excluded cases and controls
from the KP study who had reported a history of myocardial infarction
or other major coronary heart disease; such women were not
eligible for the UW study. We also excluded from this analysis
stroke patients who had not been directly interviewed because we
determined that proxy respondents provided inaccurate information as to
whether or not the patient had used OCPs in the past. Finally, we
excluded patients whose strokes were not classified as ischemic
or hemorrhagic, and cases and controls who were pregnant at diagnosis
or for whom information on OCP use status as of diagnosis (current,
past, or never) was missing. When a case from the KP study was excluded
for 1 of the above reasons, we excluded her matched controls as well.
The number of cases (or proxy respondents of cases) interviewed in each
study and excluded before this analysis is shown in Table 1
. Among the hemorrhagic stroke cases,
133 were subarachnoid in origin, 49 were
intracerebral in origin, and the remainder (16) were
either of mixed or uncertain origin.
|
Statistical Analysis
Each of the 2 study teams created a data set of the individual
records for interviewed cases and controls. The variables were
coded according to a common protocol developed after joint review of
the data collection instruments from each study. The respective data
sets were merged to create a single pooled data set for these
analyses.
We used the method of Moreno et al7 to estimate
pooled odds ratios (pORs) for oral contraceptive use and stroke,
accounting for the matched design of the KP study and the unmatched
design of the UW study. This approach ensures that the exposure status
of cases and controls is compared within each study, and for the KP
Study, within matched sets. In addition, adjustment for confounding is
based on an identical set of covariates. Briefly, a single logistic
regression model was fit in which the UW data contributed to an
unconditional likelihood function and the KP data contributed to a
conditional likelihood function. The unconditional and conditional
likelihood functions were multiplied to obtain the joint likelihood
function. Coefficients for the logistic model were obtained by
maximizing the logarithm of the joint likelihood with use of the
Newton-Raphson algorithm. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals
(CIs) on the ORs were estimated from standard errors of the
coefficients. All models included a minimum set of covariates,
consisting of terms for cigarette smoking, current treatment for
hypertension, menopausal status, and ethnicity. We examined the
potential for further confounding by additional variables by
estimating associations with and without adjustment for these
characteristics. Terms were retained in the model if they caused a
meaningful change (10% to 15%) in the pOR for the particular OCP use
variable examined. The specific covariates included in each model
are reported in the footnotes to Tables 2 through 5![]()
![]()
![]()
. We tested the
assumption that the ORs for OCP use were homogeneous across
the 2 studies by fitting separate models for the KP and UW data, and
then using Wald's
2 tests for the equality of
regression coefficients. Stratum-specific pORs were obtained by
including indicator terms representing women who were both
current low-dose OCP users and who possessed the following known or
suspected stroke risk factors: age (35 years, current smoking, body
mass index (BMI)
27.3 kg/m2, and history of
migraine headache. To test hypotheses that the risk of stroke
associated with low-dose oral contraceptive use differed among women
with and without these characteristics, we performed hierarchical
likelihood ratio tests to obtain p-values for
heterogeneity of the pORs.
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| Results |
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27.3 kg/m2) were
more common among ischemic stroke cases compared with controls.
Ischemic stroke patients, and to a lesser extent hemorrhagic
stroke patients, were more likely to report a history of migraine
compared with controls. Daily alcohol consumption was more common among
hemorrhagic stroke cases than controls. Regular vigorous exercise was
less common among stroke cases than controls, particularly for
ischemic stroke.
For ischemic stroke, the adjusted pooled OR for current use of
low-dose OCPs (<50 µg ethinyl estradiol) compared with women not
currently using OCPs was 1.09 (95% CI, 0.54 to 2.21) (Table 3
). Compared with never users, the pORs
were below 1 for both current use of low-dose OCPs (pOR, 0.66; 95% CI,
0.29 to 1.47) and past use of any oral contraceptives (pOR, 0.51; 95%
CI, 0.70 to 0.88). The results for current low-dose OCP use and
hemorrhagic stroke were similar (Table 3
), but past use of OCPs was not
associated with hemorrhagic stroke (pOR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.50 to 1.35).
With the exception of the results for past use of OCPs and hemorrhagic
stroke, the study-specific ORs were very similar. There were too few
subjects who reported current use of high-dose oral contraceptives
(>50 µg) (2 ischemic stroke cases; 2 hemorrhagic stroke
cases, and 7 controls) for meaningful analyses.
Table 4
shows the adjusted pORs in
relation to specific features of past OCP use and current low-dose OCP
use. For neither stroke type did the pORs exhibit a trend with
increasing duration of use. There was no statistical evidence of
heterogeneity across study sites in the associations
with duration of use (ischemic stroke,
25=2.12, P=0.831;
hemorrhagic stroke,
25=4.32,
P=0.438). These findings were unaffected by additional
adjustment for history of hormone replacement therapy or recency of OCP
use. When compared with never users, the pORs for ischemic
stroke among past users decreased with increasing time since last use:
<24 months=0.91, 24 to 59 months=0.96, 60 to 119 months=0.64, and
120 months=0.47. However, additional adjustment for duration of use
among past users eliminated the trend (Table 4
). For hemorrhagic
stroke, the pORs did not vary by recency of use whether or not we
adjusted for duration of use.
The pORs for both ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke tended
to be higher for current users whose most recent episode of use began
within the previous 12 months than for current users whose most recent
episode began at least 12 months prior to reference date (Table 4
).
However, none of the pORs were strongly elevated, and those for current
use of <12 months were based on small numbers of women. There was no
statistical evidence of heterogeneity in these results
across the 2 studies. For ischemic stroke, the pORs for current
use of norgestrel-type progestin OCPs (those containing
norgestrel or levonorgestrel) were essentially the same
as the pORs for norethindrone-type progestin OCPs (those containing
norethindrone, norethindrone acetate, ethynodiol diacetate, or
norethynodrel) (Table 4
). For hemorrhagic stroke, the pORs for current
use of norgestrel-type progestins were elevated whereas the pOR
was <1 for current use of norethindrone-type progestins; these
estimates were based on small numbers and were not statistically
significant. Although there was no statistically significant
heterogeneity between the data of the 2 studies, only
the UW data suggested an elevated association for hemorrhagic stroke
associated with current use of OCPs with norgestrel-type
progestin (data not shown).
Compared with women who were not current users of OCPs, the pORs for
ischemic stroke in relation to current use of low-dose OCPs
were <1 among older women, women who were current cigarette smokers,
and women who were obese (Table 5
). For
hemorrhagic stroke there was no difference in the pORs according to
these characteristics. There was no association between current use of
low-dose OCPs and either ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke among
women not receiving treatment for hypertension. There were too few
women receiving treatment for hypertension and who were current OCP
users (1 ischemic stroke case, 0 hemorrhagic stroke cases, and
2 controls) to permit meaningful analyses. All of the
confidence intervals on the pORs according to age, cigarette smoking,
obesity, and hypertension status included one. For both types of stroke
the pORs were approximately 2 among women with a history of migraine
headache, whereas the pORs were not increased among women without such
a history. The confidence intervals on the pORs for women with a
history of migraine headache, however, overlapped considerably the
respective CIs for women without such a history. All of the differences
in pORs across strata of stroke risk factors were highly
consistent with random variation (P
0.33) based on
the likelihood ratio tests.
| Discussion |
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A strength of this pooled analysis is that both studies were population based, and the incidence of stroke was similar in the populations (approximately 11 per 100 000 women-years).1 4 Identical definitions of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke were used by the 2 studies, and we confirmed that the definitions were applied reliably despite differences in the approach to classification. Limitations to this pooled analysis include the different ethnic compositions of the 2 populations and the limited statistical power to detect heterogeneity in the ORs between the 2 studies.
We excluded stroke patients who could not be directly interviewed, and we cannot dismiss the possibility that our results have been affected by an influence of OCP use on the severity of stroke. The study-specific estimates reported here for current and past use are similar to those previously published from analyses that included proxy respondents,1 4 so restriction to self-respondents is unlikely to have caused a serious bias in our results. Other limitations of the individual studies, including potential recall bias and nonparticipation bias, apply to this analysis as well.
Our results for current use of low-dose OCPs compared with nonusers contrast with those reported from the European sites of the World Health Organization multinational case-control study (OR, 1.5 for ischemic stroke3 and 1.3 for hemorrhagic stroke2). Since the WHO studies observed increased risks among cigarette smokers and women who had not had a recent blood pressure measurement and little or no association among nonsmokers or women who had had a recent blood pressure measurement, some of the differences in these findings may be due to a higher prevalence of cigarette smoking and hypertension among OCP users in Europe. Compared with women who had never used OCPs, our results for ischemic stroke differ considerably from the OR of 1.9 reported from a Danish case-control study of cerebral thromboembolic attack.6 That the Danish study excluded stroke patients with known risk factors, whereas our case definition was more inclusive, could account for the differences. Finally, given that the majority of hemorrhagic strokes in our sample were subarachnoid in origin, our results for hemorrhagic stroke are broadly consistent with a report from a case-control study of subarachnoid hemorrhage.5
Previous studies1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 have reported inconsistent results regarding the risk of stroke among women who are not current users but who had used OCPs in the past. Our results for ischemic stroke broadly agree with those of a Danish study6 of cerebral thromboembolic attack in which there was a statistically significant inverse association with past use. In contrast, the absence of an association between past use and hemorrhagic stroke differ from that in a previous US study5 in which an inverse association was found for subarachnoid hemorrhage. Results of analyses of past OCP use are difficult to interpret because of variation in the availability of different formulations over time and across populations. The absence of a trend in the pORs with duration of use provides some evidence that the observed inverse association between past use and ischemic stroke does not represent a true protective effect. Instead, it may be that women currently of childbearing age who previously used OCPs have been "selected" for a very low risk of stroke in ways that we could not adequately measure, and thus control, in this study.
Epidemiological and clinical studies have raised the possibility that the occurrence of arterial vascular disease among OCP users might be increased among users of pills containing levonorgestrel (which composes 50% of norgestrel by weight) as opposed to norethindrone-type progestins.11 12 13 14 We observed an elevated pOR for norgestrel-type progestins only for hemorrhagic stroke. These analyses were based on very small numbers of cases, and thus we are not able to draw any definitive conclusions regarding the relationship, if any, between the progestin component of low-dose OCPs and stroke risk.
The major contraindications to prescribing low-dose OCPscigarette
smoking and hypertensionare based on early epidemiological studies of
cardiovascular disease in users of OCPs containing
50
µg ethinyl estradiol (see, for example, References 15 and 1615 16 ).
Despite pooling of data, our study population included relatively few
current users of low-dose OCPs who also were cigarette smokers or were
treated for hypertension. Thus, our analyses had limited power
to clarify whether these contraindications apply to US women who use
low-dose OCPs. In the absence of more precise data from US populations,
results from other studies2 3 justify maintaining
the current contraindications to prescribing low-dose OCPs.
Several complex issues must considered when interpreting findings among women with migraine headaches in this and previous studies.17 Associations may be spurious if women with hemiplegic migraine are erroneously included as stroke cases or if women using OCPs were more likely to be told or to believe they had migraine headaches when in fact they were experiencing early stroke symptoms. This latter possibility might explain the elevated pOR we observed for hemorrhagic stroke, since there is minimal evidence that these cerebrovascular events are related to a history of migraine headaches. Alternatively, the true association with low-dose OCP use among women with migraine may be higher, because we relied on relatively imprecise methods to classify women according to migraine history. In addition, there are 2 issues specific to this analysis. First, because the ascertainment of migraine history differed in the 2 studies, the validity of pooling the data is debatable. Second, given the overlapping CIs and the results of formal tests of heterogeneity, the pORs for women with and without a history of migraine headaches cannot be distinguished statistically. Taken together, while our data are consistent with other reports17 that low-dose OCP use may be associated with an increased risk of stroke among women with a history of migraine headaches, no firm conclusions can be drawn given the potential biases and limited statistical power in available studies.
Low-dose OCPs are highly effective methods of reversible contraception that have additional, well-established noncontraceptive health benefits.18 Our data indicate that the risk of stroke, in general, is not increased among US women who use low-dose OCPs. In our population, the stroke rate is approximately 11/105 women per year,1 4 and 10% of the women similar in age to stroke patients are current users of low-dose OCPs. Thus, even if the true relative risk is approximately 2 (the upper bound of the 95% CIs on the pORs for current use), at most 1 additional stroke occurs per 105 18- to 44-year-old women in the population because of the use of low-dose OCPs. Future studies will need to clarify the characteristics of women who might be particularly susceptible to stroke when using low-dose OCPs. For the vast majority of young women, however, we conclude that low-dose OCPs are safe with respect to stroke, since the contraceptive and noncontraceptive benefits outweigh the potential risk of cerebrovascular disease.
Received June 18, 1998; revision received August 28, 1998; accepted August 28, 1998.
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C. N. Mhurchu, C. Anderson, K. Jamrozik, G. Hankey, D. Dunbabin, W.T. Longstreth Jr, and L. M. Nelson Hormonal Factors and Risk of Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage : An International Population-Based, Case-Control Study Editorial Comment : The Gender Gap in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Stroke, March 1, 2001; 32(3): 606 - 612. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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E A. MacGregor Migraine and female hormones - what factors increase the risk of ischemic stroke? Vascular Medicine, August 1, 2000; 5(3): 133 - 134. [PDF] |
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L. A. Gillum, S. K. Mamidipudi, and S. C. Johnston Ischemic Stroke Risk With Oral Contraceptives: A Meta-analysis JAMA, July 5, 2000; 284(1): 72 - 78. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. Fisher and G. W. Albers Applications of diffusion-perfusion magnetic resonance imaging in acute ischemic stroke Neurology, June 1, 1999; 52(9): 1750 - 1750. [Abstract] [Full Text] |
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M. Thorogood Risk of Stroke in Users of Oral Contraceptives JAMA, April 14, 1999; 281(14): 1255 - 1256. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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