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(Stroke. 2000;31:404.)
© 2000 American Heart Association, Inc.
Original Contributions |
From the Centre for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Royal Newcastle Hospital (Y.W., L.L-Y.L., R.F.H., J.F.), and Department of Neurology, John Hunter Hospital (C.L.), New South Wales, Australia.
Correspondence to Yang Wang, MD, Centre for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, David Maddison Clinical Sciences Building, Royal Newcastle Hospital, Newcastle, New South Wales 2300, Australia. E-mail wyang{at}cceb.newcastle.edu.au
| Abstract |
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MethodsA retrospective cohort of 509 patients with acute stroke,
admitted to a tertiary hospital between July 1, 1995, and June 30,
1997, was studied. The relationship between admission body temperature
and mortality both in-hospital and at 1-year mortality was evaluated.
Body temperature on admission was classified as hypothermia
(
36.5°C), normothermia (>36.5°C and
37.5°C), and
hyperthermia (>37.5°C). Logistic regression and proportional hazards
function analysis were performed after adjustment for clinical
predictors of stroke outcome.
ResultsIn ischemic stoke, mortality was lower among patients with hypothermia and higher among patients with hyperthermia. The odds ratio for in-hospital mortality in hypothermic versus normothermic patients was 0.1 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.5). The relative risk for 1-year mortality of hyperthermic versus normothermic patients was 3.4 (95% CI, 1.6 to 7.3). A similar but nonsignificant trend for in-hospital mortality was seen among patients with hemorrhagic stroke.
ConclusionsAn association between admission body temperature and stroke mortality was noted independent of clinical variables of stroke severity. Hyperthermia was associated with an increase in 1-year mortality. Hypothermia was associated with a reduction in in-hospital mortality.
Key Words: mortality stroke, acute temperature
| Introduction |
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In contrast, hyperthermia exacerbates ischemic neuronal injury and physiological dysfunction.8 9 10 Experimental mammalian models provide evidence that ischemic neuronal injury may be increased significantly with even mild hyperthermia of up to 2°C above normal body temperature.11 In human stroke, there have been limited investigations of the influence of body temperature on stroke outcome11 12 13 14 15 ; thus, the prognostic role of body temperature is far from conclusive.
In this study we sought to investigate the prognostic significance of hyperthermia and hypothermia on short-term and long-term mortality in patients with acute stroke.
| Subjects and Methods |
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The exclusion criteria were as follows: (1) patients whose medical records did not have admission body temperature recorded and (2) patients whose final diagnoses were not clear or were only recorded as acute cerebrovascular accident, without further classification into ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke.
Baseline Measures
Admission consciousness level was classified into
conscious, subconscious, or unconscious, which were defined as follows:
(1) conscious: alert, appropriate response to verbal commands; (2)
subconscious: drowsy or stuporous; and (3) unconscious: coma or no eye
opening to verbal stimuli.
Other clinical stroke severity variables, including swallowing difficulty and urinary and fecal incontinence, were noted as positive if present at any time during the acute hospital stay.
Stroke side was classified as affected on both sides if the affected side was only on the right or left side of the patients brain or classified as affected on both sides if both sides of the patients brain were affected. Hemiparesis was classified as none, single side (left- or right-side hemiparesis), and both sides. Blood glucose and white blood cell (WBC) count were the earliest record in the medical notes and were recorded as continuous variables. Leukocytosis was defined by a WBC count >11x109/L. Brain imaging assessment of infarct or hemorrhage size was not evaluated because late-phase CT scanning and/or MRI scanning was not available in the majority of patients.
The admission body temperature was the first aural temperature
recorded in the medical notes. We classified body temperature into
3 groups (hypothermia, normothermia, and hyperthermia) according to the
classification previously used by Reith et al.13 An
admission body temperature >37.5°C was defined as hyperthermia;
36.5°C was defined as hypothermia; between this range was defined
as normothermia.1 13
Presence of the following comorbid conditions was noted as positive if recorded in the medical notes: hypertension, ischemic heart disease, previous stroke, diabetes mellitus, chronic pulmonary disease, peripheral vascular disease, and atrial fibrillation.
Outcome Measures
The primary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and 1-year
mortality after discharge. The mortality status of patients was
provided by the Heart and Stroke Register, which links its patients
records to mortality data provided by the Registry of Births,
Death, and Marriages of New South Wales, Australia. The records
cover all deaths from residents of the Hunter Region, New South Wales,
Australia.17
Statistical Analysis
Continuous variables are expressed as mean±SD or, if
skewed, as median with interquartile range. Categorical variables
are expressed as percentages. We performed
2
tests in a univariate analysis for screening of
variables before multivariate analysis. For
in-hospital mortality, multiple logistic regression models were fitted.
Explanatory variables included in the model were those with
probability value <0.1 from the univariate
analysis. The variables with probability value of Walds
test >0.1 were removed from the model, and the log-likelihood ratio
test was performed each time to assess the fit of the more parsimonious
model. Temperature (ie, temperature classified as categorical
variables or as a continuous variable) was always included in
the model. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were obtained to describe
1-year mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression models were
fitted for 1-year mortality with the same process as that for
in-hospital mortality to select variables. All analyses
were performed with the STATA data analysis system (StataCorp,
1997 Stata Software; Release 5.0).
| Results |
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The baseline characteristics of the 509 stroke patients are shown in
Table 1
. The ischemic stroke
patients (mean±SD age, 69.8±10.5 years) were older than hemorrhagic
stroke patients (mean±SD age, 66.5±12.7 years) (P=0.020).
The sex distribution between the 2 groups was similar. Only 23.2% of
ischemic stroke patients were subconscious or unconscious,
while of the hemorrhagic stroke patients, 26.4% were subconscious and
40.3% were unconscious on admission. The admission body
temperature was significantly higher in the hemorrhagic group
(mean±SD, 37.1±0.8°C) than that in ischemic group
(mean±SD, 36.7±0.7°C) (P<0.001). Among the 437
ischemic stroke patients, 185 (42.3%) had hypothermia, 199
(45.5%) normothermia, and 53 (12.1%) hyperthermia, while for
those with hemorrhagic stroke, 16 (22.2%) were classified as
hypothermic, 35 (48.6%) normothermic, and 21 (29.2%)
hyperthermic. Hypertension was the most common comorbid disease,
affecting 58.4% of the ischemic and 62.5% of the hemorrhagic
stroke patients.
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Ischemic Stroke
In-Hospital Mortality
Admission body temperature was a significant predictor of
in-hospital mortality in the final multivariate
logistic regression model (Table 2
). The
odds ratios (ORs) for hypothermia and hyperthermia versus normothermia
were 0.1 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.5; P=0.004) and 1.4 (95% CI,
0.4 to 4.2; P=0.576), respectively. The difference between
hyperthermia and hypothermia was significant, with an OR of 15.8 (95%
CI, 2.8 to 90.0; P=0.002) (not shown in the Table
). If
admission body temperature were entered into the
multivariate model as a continuous variable, then
each 1°C increase in body temperature would increase the OR for
in-hospital mortality by 3.9 (95% CI, 1.9 to 7.8;
P<0.001).
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In addition to body temperature, other stroke severity
variables, such as subconsciousness (OR, 11.3; 95% CI, 3.8 to
33.6), unconsciousness (OR, 33.4; 95% CI, 5.0 to 223.4), and
swallowing difficulty (OR, 11.9; 95% CI, 4.3 to 32.9), were
also significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. The level of
blood glucose had a value of P>0.05. When this variable
was removed from the model, the log-likelihood ratio test showed that
the new model was significantly different from the model
presented in Table 2
(P=0.03), and we
therefore retained the variable in the final model.
One-Year Mortality
The final Cox regression model after variable selection is
shown in Table 3
. Hyperthermia was a
significant factor in predicting 1-year mortality. The relative risk
for hyperthermia versus normothermia was 3.4 (95% CI, 1.7 to 6.3;
P=0.004); however, the difference between hypothermia
and normothermia was not significant (P=0.454). When the
admission body temperature was entered into the
multivariate model as a continuous variable, then
for each 1°C increase in temperature, the risk of death at 1-year
mortality would increase by 2.1 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.2;
P=0.001).
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Older age (>65 years), swallowing difficulty on admission, and some
comorbid diseases (hypertension, ischemic heart disease, and
peripheral vascular disease) were also significant
predictors of 1-year mortality (Table 3
).
Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed to assess the
association between 1-year survival and level of admission body
temperature (Figure
). The 1-year survival
probability in the hyperthermia group was significantly lower than that
in the normothermia group (log-rank P=0.002). The 1-year
survival in the hypothermia group was higher than that of normothermia
group; however, the log-rank test shows that this result was not
statistically significant (P=0.186).
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Hemorrhagic Stroke
Seventy-two stroke patients were diagnosed as having a hemorrhagic
stroke. Age (>65 years), level of consciousness, urinary and fecal
incontinence, both sides of the brain affected, and hemiparesis were
all significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. Body temperature
was not a statistically significant predictor (P=0.108), but
there was a trend toward the mortality rate being highest in the
hyperthermia group and lowest in the hypothermia group. Because of the
smaller number of patients with hemorrhagic stroke, impaired conditions
of consciousness (subconsciousness, unconsciousness) were combined into
a single group in the data analysis. The admission body
temperature was not significant after being included in the
multivariate model. After it was excluded from the
model, the log-likelihood ratio test showed that admission body
temperature was not significantly related to in-hospital mortality
(P=0.777). The only 3 variables in the final model that
significantly predicted in-hospital mortality were impaired
consciousness, fecal incontinence, and hyperglycemia.
Body temperature was also not a significant predictor of 1-year mortality for hemorrhagic stroke in the univariate analysis. Since only 33 hemorrhagic stroke patients were discharged alive from the hospital, and 7 (21.2%) died within 1 year, the numbers were insufficient to perform a statistical analysis for 1-year mortality.
| Discussion |
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The retrospective design of this study precluded evaluation of infarct size based on brain imaging measurements. Since previous studies have noted an association between infarct size or infarct volume and body temperature,13 15 an important limitation in our analysis is that infarct size could not be included in the multivariate model. Reith et al,13 however, noted that body temperature remained independently associated with stroke mortality after adjustment for infarct size in a multivariate analysis. We cannot, however, rule out a confounding effect of infarct size on the association between body temperature and stroke mortality.
Four previous reports have pointed out a possible association between
body temperature and stroke mortality. In a prospective study of 177
patients with acute cerebral infarction, Castillo et al12
found that the difference in body temperature between those who died
within 6 months and those who survived was highly significant
(P<0.001). However, multivariate
analysis was not used. Azzimondi et al11
analyzed the data of 183 patients and determined that high
fever (maximum temperature recorded during the first 7 days,
37.9°C) was an independent factor for a worse prognosis. In both
studies, the numbers of patients were small, and important potential
confounders and predictive factors such as age and major comorbid
conditions were not considered. Reith et al,13 in a
consecutive study of 390 stroke patients, determined that body
temperature was independently related to stroke mortality. For each
1°C increase in body temperature, the relative risk of mortality rose
by 1.8. However, this study did not distinguish hemorrhagic from
ischemic stroke.
Castillo et al15 studied the prognostic value of body temperature measured at different times after onset of stroke on 260 patients with ischemic stroke. Mortality rate at 3 months was 1% in normothermic patients and 15.8% in hyperthermic patients (P<0.001). Hyperthermia within the first 24 hours from stroke onset, but not afterward, was independently related to larger infarct volume (OR, 3.23; 95% CI, 1.63 to 6.43; P<0.001) and higher neurological deficit (OR, 3.06; 95% CI, 1.70 to 5.53; P<0.001).
Most of the stroke severity variables were highly significant in the univariate analysis (not shown) of in-hospital mortality and 1-year mortality. Body temperature was still highly significantly associated with the outcomes after these severity variables were added to the multivariate model. We devised a simplified system to measure stroke severity based on variables available in the medical records: both sides of the brain affected, level of consciousness, swallowing difficulty, urinary and fecal incontinence, and hemiparesis. Level of consciousness is a well-recognized predictor of stroke mortality.18 19 All the other variables are well documented as being associated with stroke severity20 21 22 23 24
The presence of infection on admission to the hospital could not be accurately determined retrospectively. Elevated WBC count, however, was found not to predict stroke outcome in this analysis. This finding is consistent with earlier work that found neither infection nor leukocytosis to be related to in-hospital stroke mortality.13
The mechanisms of a beneficial effect of hypothermia and a harmful effect of hyperthermia in experimental animal models have not been fully elucidated. In ischemic stroke, a central area of irreversibly damaged tissue is surrounded by a zone of hypoperfused and functionally impaired but potentially viable tissue, the "ischemic penumbra."25 Temperature may have a significant effect on neuronal survival in the ischemic penumbra. Hypothermia decreases the cerebral metabolic rate and thus decreases the ischemic-induced accumulation of lactate, while hyperthermia increases lactic acidosis, producing acceleration of neuronal death.8 26 Hypothermia attenuates postischemic excitotoxic glutamate release27 and free radical production,28 both proposed mechanisms of late neuronal death. The neuroprotective effects of hypothermia may be more relevant in ischemic stroke, in which the presence of a penumbral region in humans is strongly supported by positron emission tomography imaging studies.29 30 In hemorrhagic stroke, however, evidence points toward absence of a penumbral region.31 This observation may have relevance for the lack of influence of temperature on hemorrhagic stroke mortality noted in this study.
The results of our study suggest that there is an association between admission body temperature and both short- and long-term mortality in patients with ischemic stroke. Hyperthermia was associated with an increase in 1-year mortality, and hypothermia was associated with a reduction in in-hospital mortality. The potential effect of infarct or hemorrhage size on the association between body temperature and stroke mortality was not tested because of the retrospective nature of the study. Further evaluation of the influence of temperature on stroke outcome (in terms of both mortality and functional outcome) will require prospective studies in which lesion size and the presence of infection can be accurately ascertained and stroke morbidity measured.
| Acknowledgments |
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Received May 27, 1999; revision received November 1, 1999; accepted November 1, 1999.
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