(Stroke. 2000;31:574.)
© 2000 American Heart Association, Inc.
Original Contributions |
From the Institute of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø (Norway).
Correspondence to Eva Stensland-Bugge, Institute of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway. E-mail eva.stensland-bugge{at}ism.uit.no
| Abstract |
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MethodsWe included in the study 3128 middle-aged men and women in Tromsø, Norway, who in 1980 attended the baseline examination with measurements of cardiovascular risk factors and who underwent carotid ultrasonography after 15 years of follow-up.
ResultsAge, blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and body mass index were independent long-term predictors of IMT in both men and women. Triglyceride levels were associated with an increase in IMT in women only, while physical activity and smoking were predictors of IMT in men only. However, smoking was associated with increased risk of having atherosclerotic plaque in both men and women. There were no differences in the strength of risk factor effects on IMT in the common carotid artery and the carotid bifurcation.
ConclusionsThe present study indicates that established cardiovascular risk factors are independent predictors of subclinical atherosclerosis measured after 15 years of follow-up. However, there may be significant sex differences in the relationship between triglycerides, smoking, and physical activity and the risk of atherosclerosis.
Key Words: atherosclerosis carotid arteries follow-up studies risk factors ultrasonography
| Introduction |
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Atherosclerosis is a gradually developing disease, and single measurements of cardiovascular risk factors at the time of IMT measurements may not accurately reflect a persons past exposure to those risk factors. Prospective data on risk factors for IMT in general populations are very limited. A 5-year follow-up study of predictors of IMT in elderly subjects has been published,7 and another study examined the association between previous smoking and IMT in middle-aged subjects.8 However, no population-based longitudinal study has examined the long-term effect of blood pressure, serum lipids, body mass index, and physical activity on IMT in middle-aged subjects.
We examined determinants of ultrasonographically measured IMT in a 15-year follow-up study of 3128 middle-aged men and women.
| Subjects and Methods |
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The study subjects were men and women who participated in the
19791980 (baseline) and the 19941995 (follow-up) surveys of the
Tromsø population. At baseline all men born in 19251959 and all
women born in 19301959 were invited, and 16 621 subjects (78% of
those who were invited) attended. In 19941995 all subjects born in
19251939 who attended the baseline survey and who were still living
in the community (n=3816) were invited to a follow-up survey that
included ultrasound examination of the carotid artery.9 A
total of 3245 subjects (85% of the eligible population) attended the
follow-up survey (Table 1
). After
exclusion of 117 subjects with missing ultrasound data, 1804 men and
1324 women were included in the analyses. The Regional Board of
Research Ethics approved the study, and each subject gave informed
consent.
|
Ultrasonographic Scanning
IMT measurements of the right carotid artery were obtained with
the use of a high-resolution ultrasound Acuson 128 XP/10c ART-upgraded
scanner equipped with a linear transducer with 7 MHz in B-mode.
Three frozen images of IMT from 3 locations of the carotid arterythe
near and far walls of the common carotid artery and the far walls of
the bifurcationwere stored on high-resolution videotapes. The
ultrasonic images were analyzed offline with a computerized
technique for automated ultrasonic image
analysis.9 Measurements of IMT were performed in
10-mm segments, and mean IMT from the 3 preselected images was
calculated for each location. Plaques (defined as focal widening of the
IMT relative to adjacent segments) located in the common carotid
artery, the carotid bifurcation, or the internal carotid artery were
registered, and the maximum thickness was measured. Plaques were
included in measurements of IMT if located in areas predefined for IMT
registrations. The scanning and reading procedures and the
reproducibility of the ultrasound measurements have been published
previously.9
Cardiovascular Risk Factors
Cardiovascular risk factors were assessed at
baseline. Height and weight were measured with the subjects in light
clothing without shoes. Body mass index was calculated as weight in
kilograms divided by the square of height in meters. Personnel trained
according to tape recordings produced by the London School of
Hygiene and Tropical Medicine measured blood pressure using a mercury
sphygmomanometer. After 4 minutes of rest, 2 readings were taken with a
1-minute interval. The lower value is used in this report. A nonfasting
blood sample was taken and analyzed at the Department of
Clinical Chemistry, University Hospital of Tromsø. Total
cholesterol concentration was measured directly by the
enzymatic oxidase method with a commercially available kit
(Boehringer-Mannheim), and HDL cholesterol was
assayed by the same procedure after the precipitation of lower-density
lipoprotein with heparin and manganese chloride. Serum
triglyceride concentration was enzymatically determined as
glycerol (Boehringer 15725, Boehringer-Mannheim). The
laboratory was standardized against the World Health Organization Lipid
Reference Laboratory in Prague, Czech Republic. Participants were
examined about time since last meal. Information about current
cigarette smoking, a history of cardiovascular disease
(stroke, myocardial infarction, and angina pectoris), and physical
activity was obtained from a self-administered questionnaire. Physical
activity in leisure time was graded from 1 to 4 according to which of
the following categories would best describe the participants usual
level of physical activity: 1, reading, watching TV, or activities that
do not require physical exertion; 2, walking, cycling, or some other
form of physical activity for at least 4 hours per week; 3, exercise to
keep fit, heavy gardening, etc, for at least 4 hours per week; or 4,
regular hard training or participation in competitive sports regularly
and several times a week. Because only 40 men and 2 women reported
regular hard training (level 4), levels 3 and 4 were merged in the
analyses. The questionnaire was checked for logical
inconsistencies at the examination. The validity of the responses to
the question on smoking has been investigated in 140 randomly selected
men. The mean±SD level of serum thiocyanate was 109.9±46.7 and
45.9±32.7 µmol/L in smokers and nonsmokers,
respectively.10 The question on physical activity in this
study has been widely used in Scandinavian studies11 and
has been found to segregate groups according to an objective measure of
physical fitness.11 In a random sample (n=609) from the
Tromsø Study population, self-reported physical activity in leisure
time was positively associated (P<0.001 in both sexes) with
physical fitness as measured by bicycle
ergometry.12
Statistical Analysis
Analyses were done separately for men and women. The
average of the mean IMT in the 3 locations (ie, the near and far walls
of the common carotid artery and the far wall of the bifurcation) was
calculated and is used as the dependent variable in the
analyses unless otherwise specified. All subjects included in
the analyses (n=3128) had valid IMT measurements from the near
and the far walls of the common carotid artery, and 2958 subjects
(95%) had valid IMT measurements from the far wall of the carotid
bifurcation. Values of triglycerides were log transformed.
Number of pack-years of smoking was assessed by dividing number of
cigarettes smoked daily at baseline by 20 and multiplying by number of
years of smoking at baseline. Differences in mean values of baseline
characteristics between attenders and nonattenders were tested for
statistical significance by t tests. Age-adjusted regression
coefficients were calculated to estimate the effect of risk factors on
IMT, and multiple linear regression analysis was used to assess
independent relationships. To test for interaction with sex, a pooled
multiple linear regression analysis was run including the
following interaction terms: sexxHDL cholesterol,
sexxtriglycerides, sexxsmoking, and sexxphysical
activity. Adjustment for time since last meal did not change
coefficients notably. Residual analysis of
univariate and multivariate regression
models confirmed that model assumptions were met. The difference
between the regression coefficients was tested for statistical
significance by Z tests. Age-adjusted mean values of IMT
within strata were calculated with ANCOVA. Two-sided P
values <0.05 were considered statistically significant. SAS
statistical software package version 6.12 was
used.13
| Results |
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Table 3
shows age-adjusted effects of
risk factors on IMT. There were no significant differences in effect of
risk factors on IMT among the segments of the carotid artery. Age was a
strong determinant of IMT in both sexes. Systolic and
diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol,
HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and body mass
index were significantly associated with IMT in both men and women. HDL
cholesterol and triglycerides had a greater
effect on IMT in women than in men (Table 3
) (P=0.049
and P=0.068 for sex difference in mean values of 3
locations, respectively). Figure 1
illustrates the independent effects of total cholesterol
and systolic blood pressure on IMT. The slope for total
cholesterol on IMT did not differ significantly across
tertiles of systolic blood pressure (data not shown). Smoking
was not associated with IMT in women, whereas a strong association was
seen in men (Table 3
) (P=0.0007 for sex difference in
mean values of 3 locations). Furthermore, in men there was a linear
increase in IMT across groups of never smokers, former smokers, and
current smokers (P<0.001 for linear trend), and there was a
linear dose-response relationship between the number of cigarettes
smoked per day and IMT (P<0.001 for linear trend) (Figure 2
). In contrast, in women there was no
apparent adverse effect of smoking on IMT except in those women who
smoked
20 cigarettes per day, suggesting a threshold effect of
smoking on IMT in these middle-aged women (Figure 2
).
Furthermore, there was a linear dose-response relationship between
increasing number of pack-years of smoking and IMT in men
(P<0.001) but not in women (P=0.20) (data not
shown). However, the age-adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) for carotid
plaque in smokers compared with nonsmokers was highly significant both
in women (1.85 [1.47 to 2.32]) and in men (1.91 [1.58 to 2.32]).
These odds ratios did not change notably after adjustment for
systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL
cholesterol, body mass index, and physical activity.
Physical activity during leisure time was associated with lower IMT in
men but not in women (Table 3
) (P=0.012 for sex
difference in mean values of 3 locations).
|
|
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Table 4
shows determinants of IMT in a
multiple linear regression model stratified by sex. There were no
significant differences in independent effect of risk factors on IMT
among the segments of the carotid artery. However, the
R2 of the full model was highest
when mean IMT of 3 locations was used as the dependent variable,
and R2 was lower for the
bifurcation than for the common carotid artery. Age, systolic
blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL
cholesterol, and body mass index were strong independent
predictors of IMT in both men and women. Triglycerides were
independently associated with IMT when we controlled for HDL
cholesterol level in women only (P=0.08 for
interaction with sex). The significant age-adjusted association between
triglycerides and IMT in men (Table 3
) was
attenuated in multivariate analysis, mainly by
the inclusion of HDL cholesterol and total
cholesterol in the regression model (Table 4
).
However, even when we excluded total cholesterol and HDL
cholesterol from the regression model,
triglycerides remained a nonsignificant predictor for IMT
in men, suggesting that the sex difference in effect of
triglycerides on IMT is not a result of sex differences in
metabolic interrelationships among serum lipids. Smoking
and physical inactivity were significant predictors of IMT in men but
not in women (P=0.0003 and P=0.029 for
interaction with sex, respectively). When systolic blood
pressure was exchanged with diastolic blood pressure in the
model, diastolic blood pressure was independently
associated with IMT in both men and women (data not shown). These
results were not altered when we excluded from the analysis 338
men and 92 women with prevalent cardiovascular disease
at follow-up.
|
There was an additive effect of risk factors on IMT (Figure 3
). When current smoking was added to
hypertension, the IMT increased significantly compared with subjects
exposed to hypertension (P=0.006) or current smoking
(P<0.0001) only. Similarly, subjects with the combination
of hypercholesterolemia and current smoking had
higher IMT values than subjects with
hypercholesterolemia (P=0.007) or
current smoking (P=0.001) only. Subjects exposed to all 3
risk factors had the highest IMT. Similar results were found in
sex-specific analyses (data not shown).
|
| Discussion |
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The association of exposure in 1980 with atherosclerosis in 19941995 suggests that exposure is likely to have preceded wall thickening, although the absence of wall thickness measurements at baseline makes it impossible to firmly establish a temporal relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and IMT. Atherosclerosis is a chronic disease that develops over a long time as a consequence of past and persistent atherogenic exposures. Associations with past exposures are more consistent with a biologically plausible process of atherogenesis than associations with current exposures. The use of noninvasively determined carotid IMT rather than clinically defined atherosclerotic disease as the outcome measure makes selection bias less likely.
Whether increased carotid IMT itself reflects atherosclerosis is still subject to debate. It has been suggested that IMT <1.0 mm merely reflects an adaptive response of the vessel wall to changes in shear and tensile stress.14 Still, several cross-sectional studies have shown that increased IMT may be a marker of atherosclerosis elsewhere in the arterial system,5 15 and findings from prospective studies indicate that increased IMT confers an increased risk of future cerebrovascular and cardiovascular diseases.6 There appears to be no clear cutoff point above which the risk increases more rapidly. Thus, even if low values of IMT may not represent local atherosclerosis, measurement of IMT may be used as a marker of the total burden of atherosclerosis present in the individual, and it may serve as a graded marker for future risk of clinical cardiovascular disease.
Several population-based studies have found cross-sectional associations between IMT and unfavorable levels of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, body mass index, and smoking.1 3 Previous prospective studies have revealed age, smoking, LDL cholesterol, and triglycerides to be predictors of IMT progression.16 17 18 However, these studies were performed on selected populations with short follow-up time (2 to 3 years). Information about the effect of risk factors on IMT in long-term population-based longitudinal studies is scarce.7 8 19 A 5-year follow-up study reported that age and pack-years of smoking were independent predictors of IMT in men, while age and systolic blood pressure were associated with IMT in women.7
Triglycerides and IMT
An inconsistent association between
triglycerides and IMT has been reported in cross-sectional
studies,1 2 20 and progression of IMT has been found to
correlate with changes in levels of triglyceride-rich
lipoproteins.17 However, the role of serum
triglycerides as a risk factor for coronary heart
disease remains controversial, partly because
multivariate analyses controlling for HDL
cholesterol usually reduce the strength of
triglycerides in predicting coronary heart disease.
Findings from the present study suggest an association between
subclinical atherosclerosis and
triglycerides independent of HDL cholesterol
levels in women but not in men. Supportive of our findings, a
meta-analysis of prospective studies reported a stronger
association between plasma triglyceride levels and risk of
clinical cardiovascular disease in women than in
men.21
Smoking and IMT
Results from the present study indicate that the effect of
current smoking on IMT was strong in men, while a threshold effect of
smoking on IMT in women was found. In a study from the
Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort of
2073 subjects aged 31 to 52 years at baseline, active smoking was
associated with increased IMT 12 to 14 years later.8 They
found an effect of smoking in both sexes, but the difference in IMT
between never smokers and subjects smoking at both baseline and
follow-up appeared to be greater in men than in women (0.162 versus
0.072 mm, respectively). Furthermore, a 5- to 8-year longitudinal
study of 200 women aged 42 to 50 years at baseline found a positive
association between smoking and IMT.22 In contrast, a
5-year follow-up of 1106 subjects aged 55 to 74 years at baseline
reported no association between smoking and IMT in women, while a
strong association was found in men.7 Conflicting results
regarding the effect of smoking on IMT in women have also been reported
from cross-sectional studies.20 23 Differences in age
distributions in the study samples, sample sizes, and different methods
in assessment of smoking status and IMT measurements may be related to
the inconsistent findings.
Sex-related differences in the effect of smoking could be related to different smoking frequencies or possible sex-specific smoking habits. A misclassification of smoking status due to sex differences in smoking cessation during follow-up could possibly explain the differences between men and women. We were able to explore this indirectly because smoking status was also registered at the follow-up examination. The number of cigarettes smoked daily was similar at baseline and follow-up in both sexes, and more men than women reported to have quit smoking since the baseline examination (17% versus 9%; P<0.001). Thus, misclassification of the exposure variable is unlikely to explain the sex differentials.
Interestingly, we observed in women that whereas smoking was not associated with IMT, smoking was strongly associated with risk of having atherosclerotic plaque. It has been suggested that IMT (diffuse thickening) and plaques (localized thickening) are 2 related but not identical components in the development of atherosclerosis and that some risk factors may have different effects on IMT and on plaque development.24 Hormone replacement therapy has been associated with increased thickness of the carotid artery media layer and hence the IMT.25 Furthermore, a recent article reported that pregnant women had a thicker media layer than nonpregnant fertile controls,26 suggesting that endogenous estrogens also have a media-thickening effect (because of changes in the content of connective tissue). Therefore, it may be hypothesized that in the middle-aged women in the present study, smoking could in fact decrease thickness of the intima-media complex because of the well-known antiestrogenic effect of smoking.27 In the present study female smokers actually had a slightly thinner IMT than female nonsmokers (0.753 mm [SE, 0.007] versus 0.765 mm [SE, 0.005]), respectively, when subjects with plaques were excluded from the analyses (P=0.15 for difference between groups). Our data therefore indicate that in women, smoking, in addition to promoting atherosclerosis in the vessel wall intima layer, may also weaken the media layer of the vessel wall, placing smoking women at particular risk for cardiovascular events associated with weakening or rupture of the vessel wall, such as cerebral hemorrhage and abdominal aortic aneurysms. In fact, unpublished data from our group (K. Singh, K.H. Bønaa, et al, unpublished data, 1999) show that current smoking carries significantly greater relative risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm in women than in men.
Physical Activity and IMT
In men, physical activity has been associated with a decreased
risk of cardiovascular disease morbidity and
mortality,28 29 while studies in women have produced mixed
results.29 30 The effect of physical activity on IMT has
previously not been examined in prospective studies. A cross-sectional
analysis from the ARIC study31 showed that
physical activity at work was a protective factor for IMT in both sexes
but slightly stronger in men than in women. No effect on IMT was found
for physical activity during leisure time and in sport. In the
present longitudinal study we found an independent protective
effect of leisure time physical activity on IMT in men but not in women
(Tables 2
and 3
). Paffenbarger et al32
suggested that the explanation for a lack of an association between
increased activity and decreased coronary heart disease risk in
some studies was the low activity level in the so-called active group.
In our study men were more physically active than women, and it is
possible that the activity level among women was too low to show a
benefit. There is a possibility of a greater degree of
misclassification among women compared with men in the sedentary
groups, because women classified as sedentary probably still attend to
activities like housework and gardening. Furthermore, a sex difference
in change of level of physical activity during follow-up could be
present. Another possible explanation for the lack of protection of
physical activity on IMT in women could be that the benefit of exercise
is mediated by improving levels of something women already have, such
as high levels of HDL cholesterol.33 However,
in women there was no significant association between physical activity
and IMT within strata of HDL cholesterol (data not
shown).
Blood Pressure and IMT
Progression of atherosclerosis reduces the
compliance of the aorta and large arteries, which may lead to an
increase in systolic blood pressure and a decrease in
diastolic blood pressure.34 The time-dependent
relation between atherosclerosis, reduced
arterial compliance, and systolic hypertension
cannot be determined in cross-sectional studies. In our study there was
a strong association between baseline systolic blood pressure
and subclinical atherosclerosis determined after 15
years follow-up, indicating that systolic blood pressure is a
precursor of atherosclerosis. The effect of blood
pressure was independent of cholesterol levels (Figure 1
), suggesting that blood pressure may promote
atherosclerosis through mechanisms other than by
causing endothelial injury and thereby promoting more
rapid influx of cholesterol into the arterial
wall.
Multiple Risk Factors
The possible additive effect of risk factors on IMT has to our
knowledge not been investigated previously. We found that mean IMT in
the carotid arteries increased markedly in subjects with multiple risk
factors. This finding is supported by a recent autopsy study in which
the severity of asymptomatic coronary and aortic
atherosclerosis in young people increased with
increasing number of cardiovascular risk
factors35 and by results from the Framingham Study
indicating that multiple risk factors have a synergistic effect on
development of morbidity and mortality from coronary heart
disease.36
Segment-Specific Analyses of IMT
In the present study segment-specific analyses
revealed no differences in the strength of associations between risk
factors and IMT in the common carotid artery and the carotid
bifurcation. This finding is supported by similar results from a recent
cross-sectional study in which both near and far walls of 3 segments of
the carotid artery were examined.37 However, other studies
have reported that while age, systolic blood pressure, and
serum lipids were related to IMT in both the common carotid artery and
the internal carotid artery,38 smoking was associated with
IMT in the bifurcation/internal carotid artery
only.38 39
Restricting measurements of IMT to the common carotid segment has been justified by the greater reproducibility of measurements from this site and the difficulty in obtaining measurements from the bifurcation or the internal carotid artery in some populations. In the present study virtually all subjects examined had valid IMT measurements from both the common carotid artery and the carotid bifurcation. Protocols that involve additional segments have several advantages. First, plaques are most often found in the bifurcation and the internal carotid artery. Thus, including these sites may provide the most sensitive and statistically powerful assessment of atherosclerosis. Second, aggregating data across segments may provide measures that are stable and less sensitive to measurement error.
In conclusion, findings from the present study indicate that established cardiovascular risk factors are independent predictors of subclinical atherosclerosis in a 15-year longitudinal population-based study. Furthermore, our data point to significant sex differences in the effect of triglycerides, physical activity, and smoking on IMT.
| Acknowledgments |
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Received September 27, 1999; revision received November 30, 1999; accepted December 10, 1999.
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