(Stroke. 2000;31:1487.)
© 2000 American Heart Association, Inc.
Original Contributions |
From the Sherbrooke Geriatric University Institute, Sherbrooke, Quebec (R.H., M.F.D.); the Laboratory Centre for Disease Control, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario (J.L.); Laval University, Québec City, Quebec (R.V.); Sisters of Charity of Ottawa Health Service Inc, Ottawa, Ontario (G.H.); and Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia (K.R.), Canada.
Correspondence to Dr Réjean Hébert, Gerontology and Geriatrics Research Centre, 1036 Belvédère Sud, Sherbrooke, Quebec, J1H 4C4, Canada. E-mail rhebert{at}courrier.usherb.ca
| Abstract |
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MethodsThis was a cohort incidence study that followed 8623 subjects presumed to be free of dementia over a 5-year period. The risk factors were examined with a nested prospective case-control study. Exposure was determined by means of a risk factor questionnaire administered to the subject or a proxy at the beginning of the study.
ResultsOn the basis of 38 476 person-years at risk, the annual
incidence rate was estimated to be 2.52 per thousand undemented
Canadians (95% CI 2.02 to 3.02). Including an estimation of the
probability of VaD among the decedents, this figure rose to 3.79. For
the risk factors study, 105 incident cases of VaD according to the
NINCDS-AIREN criteria were compared with 802 control subjects.
Significant risk factors were: age (OR=1.05), residing in a rural area
(2.03), living in an institution (2.33), diabetes (2.15), depression
(2.41), apolipoprotein E
4 (2.34), hypertension for women (2.05),
heart problems for men (2.52), taking aspirin (2.33), and occupational
exposure to pesticides or fertilizers (2.05). Protective factors were
eating shellfish (0.46) and regular exercise for women (0.46). There
was no relation with sex, education, or alcohol.
ConclusionsThe study confirmed some previously reported risk factors but also suggested new ones. It raised concerns about the prescription of aspirin and perhaps other factors related to rural life.
Key Words: cerebrovascular disorders epidemiology cohort case-control
| Introduction |
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Risk factors for prevalent VaD have been reviewed by many authors over the last 4 years.1 2 3 4 They can be divided into 4 categories: (1) demographic: older age, race/ethnic group (Asian), sex (male), low education, rural area; (2) atherogenic factors: hypertension, cigarette smoking, heart disease, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, carotid bruits, menopause without estrogen replacement therapy; (3) nonatherogenic factors: genetic, alteration in hemostasis, high alcohol consumption, use of aspirin, psychological stress, occupational exposure (pesticides, herbicides, liquid plastic, or rubber), socioeconomic factors (blue collar); and (4) stroke-related factors: volume of cerebral tissue loss, infarct location and number.
The second phase of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) provides a unique opportunity to study risk factors associated with incident VaD in a population-based study designed to estimate the incidence of different types of dementia in Canada.
| Subjects and Methods |
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85 years) random samples in 36 urban and surrounding rural areas
in all 10 Canadian provinces. Subjects were
65 years of age as of
October 1, 1990, and were fluent in English or French. In all, 9008
community residents and 1255 residents of institutions were surveyed.
Participants living in the community were first screened for cognitive
impairment by means of the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination
(3MS).7 8 Those screening positive (3MS <78) were invited
to a clinical examination, as were those who were unable to complete
the screening test (eg, because of deafness) and a random sample of
subjects who were screened as cognitively normal. All others were
presumed to be free of dementia. All institutionalized participants
underwent the clinical assessment without first being
screened. In 1996, a follow-up data collection (CSHA-2) was undertaken. Community subjects presumed to be free from dementia at CSHA-1 were asked to be rescreened and evaluated as above. All those who had a clinical examination in CSHA-1 were also invited to the CSHA-2 clinical assessment. However, because a law in the province of Newfoundland invalidated the use of proxy consent for a cognitively impaired person to be medically examined as part of a research project, the subjects from that province were excluded from all analyses involving findings from the clinical examination. All subjects signed an informed consent form, and the study was approved by the institutional review committees of all 18 centers.
Diagnostic Assessment
For all subjects who underwent a CSHA-2 clinical assessment, a
first diagnosis was reached the same way as in CSHA-1.5 9
Briefly, a nurse first administered the 3MS examination, assessed
hearing, vision, vital signs, height, and weight, collected information
on medication use, and gathered the subjects cognitive and family
history by using Section H of the CAMDEX history
interview.10 A blood sample was collected to be
genetically tested for apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotypes. Next,
a trained physician with special expertise in dementia (neurologist,
psychiatrist, geriatrician, general internist, or general
practitioner) recorded a standard history and physical
examination and completed the Hachinski Ischemia
Scale,11 for which a score of 7 was considered indicative
of vascular dementia. On the basis of these data including a summary of
the nurses basic evaluation, the physician arrived at a preliminary
diagnostic opinion. Dementia and its severity were
diagnosed according to the criteria of the DSM-III-R.12 AD
was diagnosed with the use of the NINCDS-ADRDA criteria.13
Vascular dementia was diagnosed according to the ICD-10
criteria14 without routine neuroimaging. All subjects with
a 3MS score
50 proceeded to neuropsychological testing in which a
psychometrician, blinded to the 3MS score from the interview,
administered a battery of neuropsychological tests. This battery
(described elsewhere15 ) included specific tests to assess
memory, language, attention, visual perception, construction, and
problem solving. A neuropsychologist, blinded to the physicians
examination, evaluated the test results in conjunction with the results
of the CAMDEX and the 3MS examination administered by the nurse and
formed his/her preliminary diagnosis also using DSM-III-R (for
dementia), NINCDS-ADRDA (for AD), and ICD-10 criteria (for VaD). All
data were reviewed at a case conference to reach the consensus
diagnosis with the use of the same criteria described above. The
consensus diagnosis of VaD based on ICD-10 criteria was used to
calculate the incidence figures of VaD.
In CSHA-2, all subjects with a preliminary diagnosis of vascular dementia (or AD with vascular components) were asked to have a CT scan. Moreover, since CSHA-1, new diagnostic criteria had been proposed. Thus, after the first consensus diagnosis was reached, additional information (CT scan, new neuropsychological tests) was made available to the physician and neuropsychologist at the case conference, and a second diagnosis, called the Consensus New Criteria diagnosis, was made with the use of the DSM-IV16 and NINDS-AIREN17 criteria. These criteria were used to identify subjects for the risk factor study.
Incidence Rate Calculations
Incidence rates were calculated for Canada except Newfoundland
and omitting nonparticipants in CSHA-2 and those who were screened
positive at CSHA-2 but were not clinically examined. Because dementia
is mainly irreversible and highly prevalent in the older population, we
used the estimated population without dementia in Canada in 1991 as the
denominator rather than the total Canadian population. Estimated
population without dementia was calculated with the use of the
prevalence estimates from CSHA-1.5 Standard actuarial
methods were used to estimate person-years at risk, and these figures
were weighted according to the sampling frame. The date of onset of
dementia was assumed to be midway between the date of the baseline
assessment and the date of the follow-up assessment. CIs for the
estimates were calculated considering rates as Poisson variables.
These incidence figures were first calculated on survivors only and are
thus underestimated because the 5-year delay between the 2 assessments
allowed incident cases to die before the second assessment. For
deceased subjects, it was possible to estimate the incidence of
dementia in general from 3 sources: death certificates, decedent
interview with a relative, and a regression model developed from the 71
people who died within 3 months of undergoing the CSHA-1
diagnostic examination.6 However, it was not
possible to refine the diagnosis of dementia to identify VaD. We
estimated the rates of VaD among decedents, applying the same relative
increase in age-sex rates obtained for dementia in general. This is
probably an underestimation, because survival from VaD is less than
from AD.
Risk Factor Analysis
The risk factor study used a prospective case-control design
nested within the CSHA cohort study. Eligible subjects were CSHA
participants presumed to be cognitively intact in 1991 on the basis of
the 3MS score (>77) that they obtained at screening and those not
diagnosed as demented in 1991 after the clinical examination. Cases
were subjects with a Consensus New Criteria diagnosis of VaD at CSHA-2.
AD subjects with vascular components (mixed dementia) were not included
as cases. Control subjects were the subjects who underwent the clinical
examination at CSHA-2 and were judged cognitively normal according to
the same New Consensus Criteria. Data on the risk factors were obtained
primarily from the Risk Factor Questionnaire completed in 1991 by the
subject himself/herself when he/she was presumed to be free of
dementia. The questionnaire covered occupational and environmental
exposure, lifestyle (including smoking, alcohol, and a limited dietary
history), and family and medical history (including antecedent and
medication use). For some subjects who did not complete it, the Proxy
Risk Factor Questionnaire was used. For some variables (medication
use and history of stroke, diabetes, high blood pressure, heart
problems, and Parkinsons disease), data from the 1991 screening
interview or clinical examination were also used. The APOE
phenotype was analyzed on subjects for whom a blood
test was available.
Because the control subjects were unequally distributed between regions of Canada and the incidence rates did not differ from one region to another, the analyses were adjusted for region. The relation of VaD with age, sex, and education was first investigated to see if they could be confounders in the relation between VaD and the different risk factors. Bivariate analyses were conducted considering each risk factor separately as the explanatory variable. ORs and 95% CIs were based on the likelihood-ratio test with unconditional logistic regression models (LOGISTIC procedure, SAS/STAT software, SAS Institute Inc). Because the type I error was set at 5%, the OR is statistically significant when its 95% CI does not include 1 (null value). Interactions with age and sex were systematically verified, and only those statistically significant are reported. Some other interactions (eg, stroke, vascular factors) hypothetically driven were also verified.
| Results |
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A total of 38 476 person-years were followed over the 5-year period.
From the 492 cases of dementia identified, 97 (20%) were diagnosed as
VaD by CSHA-1 criteria, for an annual incidence rate of VaD of 2.52 per
1000 undemented persons (95% CI 2.02 to 3.02). Tables 1
and 2
detail incidence rates by sex for each
age strata. For the Canadian (except Newfoundland) population, it can
be estimated that 7355 new cases of VaD survived over the 5-year
period. With the use of the adjustment method to take mortality rates
into account, the incidence rate would be 3.79, increasing the number
of new cases in Canada to 11 062 over the 5-year period.
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For the risk factor study, 105 incident cases of VaD were identified with the NINCDS-AIREN criteria and compared with the 802 control subjects who were diagnosed without cognitive impairment. There were 4 cases fulfilling the ICD-10 criteria who did not meet the new criteria and 12 new cases not previously identified with the ICD-10 criteria. The mean age of the cases was 78.1 years (SD 6.04), which was slightly but significantly (P=0.003) older than the control subjects (76.0; SD 6.6). Adjusting for region, the OR associated with age was 1.05 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.08) per year. The proportion of men was 39.0% in the cases and 42.3% in the control subjects (P=0.53). The mean number of years of schooling was 10, and there was no significant difference (P=0.12) between cases (9.7; SD 4.4) and control subjects (10.4; SD 4.0). Hence, all subsequent analyses were adjusted for age and region.
Thirteen (12.4%) incident cases were living in institutions at CSHA-1
compared with 48 (6.0%) of the control group (P=0.014). A
larger proportion of cases was living in rural areas (18.3% versus
10.8%; P=0.024). A proportion of 26.7% (28 subjects) of
the cases reported in 1991 having had a stroke, as opposed to only
5.4% (43 subjects) of the control group. Table 3
shows the results for each of the risk
factors. Significant risk factors were living in a rural area (2.03) or
an institution (2.33), having diabetes (2.15), taking aspirin (2.33),
APOE
4 allele (2.34), exposure to pesticides or fertilizers
(2.05), and having depression (2.41). Hypertension was a risk factor
only for women (2.05), whereas heart disease was significantly
associated with VaD only for men (2.52). Significant protective factors
were eating shellfish at least once per month (OR=0.46), smoking cigars
nearly every day (0.20), and being engaged in regular exercise for
women only (0.46). Some factors previously identified in other studies
were not confirmed (male sex, cigarette smoking, alcohol, education,
exposure to liquid plastic and rubber, menopause without estrogen
replacement therapy).
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We explored more deeply the relation between aspirin and VaD because aspirin is frequently prescribed in stroke and other vascular diseases. Surprisingly, the OR was significant only in subjects without stroke (OR=2.49; 95% CI 1.46 to 4.21), heart problems (OR=2.59; 95% CI 1.47 to 4.49), diabetes (OR=2.65; 95% CI 1.62 to 4.32), or high blood pressure (OR=2.52; 95% CI 1.35 to 4.67).
| Discussion |
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This study is also the largest risk factor study ever published on VaD with incident cases from a population-based study. Control subjects were selected from the same cohort as cases, with the same procedure used for clinical assessment. Cases were identified by means of the NINDS-AIREN criteria, including neuroimaging data. However, some limitations must be acknowledged. First, because 5 years elapsed between the 2 phases of the study, losses to follow-up and mostly mortality could have introduced some bias. Given that the median survival of VaD is estimated to be 5 years after the diagnosis29 and much lower than the expected survival of the control subjects, a selection bias could have occurred. Incident cases who died early are not included in this study, and factors associated with rapid course VaD cannot be identified. Also, some factors associated with longer survival of cases may be falsely identified as risk factors, although this problem is less important than in prevalence studies. Second, some risk factors previously reported in other studies were not assessed in this study by means of a risk factor questionnaire (eg, high hematocrit, low blood pressure, alteration in hemostasis, presence of carotid bruits, ECG abnormalities). Third, the questionnaire was crude for some variables (nutrition and environmental exposure), and measurement error may have attenuated the associations. Finally, missing data on exposure could be a source of significant potential biases. This problem also precludes the use of multivariate modeling.
The association of VaD with age is consistent with most of the
incidence studies although less striking than for AD. There was no risk
associated with sex in this study. Although none of the previously
published incidence studies found a significant risk for sex, all
reported ORs for male sex are
1.5,18 22 23 24 27 but
given the small sample size of these studies, the CI for this estimate
was very large.
This study confirms previous studies relating VaD to diabetes,27 30 31 32 33 heart disease,31 32 34 and hypertension.27 31 32 34 35 36 37 38 However, the sex interactions for heart condition and high blood pressure are surprising. Only Aronson et al39 reported that previous myocardial infarction was associated with VaD for women only, whereas in our study the association with heart condition was significant only for men. It was the association with hypertension that was significant only for women. These interactions weaken any conclusions about heart disease and high blood pressure.
The risk associated with institutions was related to the high prevalence of strokes in these settings because risk is no longer significant when adjusting for strokes.
The absence of a relation of VaD with cigarette smoking, although raised in some prevalence studies,31 36 37 confirmed the data from the CSHA prevalence study34 and those of Yoshitake et al27 from another incidence study. The protective effect of cigar smoking observed in the present study has never been reported but should be interpreted with caution because it was based on only 1 case. Alcohol was also not associated with significant risk, contrary to the prevalence data from CSHA34 and the incidence study from Yoshitake et al.27
The association of VaD with aspirin consumption confirms the finding of the analysis carried out with prevalent cases.34 The authors suggested that this association could have been related to Neymans bias, with aspirin prolonging the survival of patients with VaD. Although this phenomenon also could be present in this study, given the large interval between the 2 phases of the study, the magnitude of the risk is striking (2.3) and not very different from the estimate of the prevalence study (3.1). The risk associated with aspirin was not, as first suspected, a marker for stroke and cardiovascular diseases. Because aspirin is widely prescribed, it would be important to further clarify the role of aspirin in the pathogenesis of VaD.
The absence of an association with education is consistent with most of the recent incidence studies of VaD23 27 and dementia in general. The risk associated with low education suggested in many prevalence studies including CSHA was probably related to the effect of education on the cognitive screening test and on the neuropsychological battery used in these studies. Subjects with little education were more prone to be identified early as demented, thus artificially lengthening the course of the disease (lead-time bias).
The risk of VaD associated with previous episodes of depression was also reported by Katzman et al.30 It confirms the association observed in CSHA-1 by means of prevalence data.40 Further analysis shows that the risk is striking for subjects reporting a previous stroke (OR=10.77; CI 2.23 to 80.60). Depression may be a premonitory syndrome for VaD in stroke patients41 or a marker of the importance of cerebral damage.
The association of VaD with the
4 allele of APOE was also
reported in other studies.42 43 44 45 46 This raises the
possibility that this allele is not a specific marker for AD but is
associated with the repair processes in the nervous
system.47 Given that APOE plays a role in normal brain
metabolism, it can be hypothesizedas suggested by Frisoni
et al42 that different insults, either degenerative or
vascular, might result in greater damage when
4 allele is
present. However, since the diagnosis of pure VaD is only probable
according to the NINDS-AIREN criteria, co-occurrence of AD is possible
and may explain part of the association with APOE.
The risk associated with exposure to pesticides and fertilizers confirms the finding of the prevalence study34 and could explain part of the association with rural areas. Higher incidence of VaD in rural areas was also reported by Liu et al.23 Associations with these types of exposure were also reported for AD48 and Parkinsons disease.49 50 A prospective study collecting detailed exposure data would be needed to shed more light on these associations.
The protective effect of estrogen replacement therapy in menopausal women was not confirmed in this study. However, the CI of this estimate was very large because very few women reported using estrogen among their medications. There was no specific question about estrogen replacement therapy in the questionnaire, and this medication could have been underreported. Finally, this study was the first to show the protective effect of eating shellfish and exercise (in women only). These associations need to be confirmed by other epidemiological studies, and the biological plausibility of these factors must be explored further.
In conclusion, this study provides relatively precise incidence rates for VaD, particularly in very old people. It confirms the important role of diabetes in the pathogenesis of VaD. It supports the hypothesis that depression could be an early symptom of VaD in stroke patients. It should raise concerns about the possible role of aspirin and pesticides and fertilizers in VaD. Some protective factors identified by this study should be further explored.
| Acknowledgments |
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Received January 3, 2000; revision received March 15, 2000; accepted March 27, 2000.
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