(Stroke. 2001;32:485.)
© 2001 American Heart Association, Inc.
Original Contributions |
From the Departments of Neurosurgery (S.J.) and Radiology (M.P., K.P.), Helsinki University Central Hospital (Finland).
Correspondence to Seppo Juvela, MD, Department of Neurosurgery, Helsinki University Central Hospital, Topeliuksenkatu 5, FIN-00260 Helsinki 26, Finland. E-mail seppo.juvela{at}helsinki.fi
| Abstract |
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MethodsEighty-seven patients (79 had ruptured aneurysms clipped at start of follow-up) with 111 unruptured aneurysms as well as an additional 7 patients (2 with and 5 without unruptured aneurysms) who developed new aneurysms were followed from the 1950s to the 1970s until death or subarachnoid hemorrhage or until the last contact. Patients cerebral arteries were examined later either with conventional (control) angiography (n=38) and/or, for those alive during 19961998, with 3-dimensional CT angiography (n=57). In addition, 10 patients were studied at neuropathological autopsy.
ResultsMean±SD
duration of follow-up was 18.9±9.4 years (range, 1.2 to 38.9 years).
Unruptured aneurysms increased in size
1 mm in 39 of the
87 patients (45%) and
3 mm in 31 (36%). New aneurysms
were found in 15 of the 89 patients and in 5 without an unruptured
aneurysm at the beginning of follow-up. Aneurysm
rupture was associated very significantly
(P<0.001) with
aneurysm growth during follow-up. Of several potential risk
factors tested, only cigarette smoking (odds ratio [OR], 3.92; 95%
CI, 1.29 to 11.93) and female sex (OR, 3.36; 95% CI, 1.11 to 10.22)
were, after adjustment for age, significant
(P<0.05) independent risk
factors for occurrence of aneurysm growth of
1 mm. Only
cigarette smoking (OR, 3.48; 95% CI, 1.14 to 10.64;
P<0.05) was associated with
growth of
3 mm. Age- and hypertension-adjusted risk factors for
aneurysm formation were female sex (OR, 4.73; 95% CI, 1.16 to
19.38) and cigarette smoking (OR, 4.07; 95% CI, 1.09 to
15.15).
ConclusionsWomen and cigarette smokers are at increased risk for intracranial aneurysm formation and growth. Cigarette smoking in particular hastens aneurysm growth. Cessation of smoking is important for patients with unruptured aneurysms and possibly also for those with a prior subarachnoid hemorrhage.
Key Words: cerebral aneurysm cigarette smoking gender natural history subarachnoid hemorrhage
| Introduction |
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Aneurysms develop during adulthood, with risk for SAH increasing linearly with age.1 3 4 5 During the last few decades, several studies have been published concerning risk factors for SAH (ie, for ruptured intracranial aneurysm)4 5 6 7 8 and for future rupture of a verified unruptured aneurysm4 5 9 10 11 12 but not for formation and growth rate of intracranial aneurysms. Because fewer than half of all aneurysms ever rupture, it is essential to determine separately the risk factors for both aneurysm formation and its growth.4 5 12 This is also important for detection of mechanisms by which different risk factors (eg, cigarette smoking) increase the risk for SAH. Previously, growth rate of an aneurysm has also been associated with its rupture.10 13
In this long-term cohort study, patients with unruptured aneurysms diagnosed before 1979 were followed by conventional angiography and/or by 3-dimensional (3D) CT angiography or examined at autopsy to define risk factors for aneurysm growth and formation.
| Subjects and Methods |
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Of the 89 patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms, 79 (89%) had SAH at the beginning of follow-up. Only the ruptured aneurysm was operated on, and the occlusion of the aneurysm was confirmed by postoperative angiography. Unruptured aneurysms of these patients were later measured either with conventional and/or 3D CT angiography (n=72) or at autopsy (n=7). Aneurysms of 8 patients with only unruptured aneurysms (4 symptomatic and 4 incidental) were monitored later either with angiography (n=7) or at autopsy (n=1). Two additional patients died of SAH caused by a verified de novo aneurysm. These patients are included in de novo analyses but not in aneurysm growth analyses because the unruptured aneurysms were not measured at autopsy. The study included not only patients with angiographic follow-up but also those whose aneurysms were measured at autopsy, since aneurysm growth or formation may also be associated with case fatality of SAH.
In addition, 5 patients had no unruptured aneurysm (4 with a single clipped ruptured aneurysm and 1 with normal angiography) before 1979 but later were treated for verified ruptured de novo aneurysms. These 5 patients were included only in risk factor studies of de novo aneurysms but not in incidence studies.
If the parent artery was clipped together with the aneurysm, the patient was excluded from the study because of the possibility of formation of a new aneurysm or the chance of enlargement of a preexisting aneurysm due to increase in hemodynamic stress in the remaining arteries.10 12
Follow-Up Methods
During 19961998, 57 patients were studied in the
outpatient department, where they were personally interviewed (S.J.)
with the use of a structured questionnaire, and patients cerebral
vessels were studied with 3D CT angiography (K.P. and M.P.). The
questionnaire elicited data on patients height and weight; previous
diseases and hospital visits; regular drug use, including analgesics,
stimulants, and narcotics; approximate intake of alcohol; current and
previous smoking status; and family history of verified intracranial
aneurysm cases in first-degree relatives (parents, siblings,
and offspring).
Smoking was categorized as follows: never a smoker, formerly
a regular cigarette smoker, or currently a cigarette smoker, with 10
and 20 cigarettes per day as cutoff points. Starting point and duration
of smoking as well as time of cessation of smoking also were
recorded. Alcohol consumption was recorded as approximate grams
of absolute ethanol consumed within 1 week during the total follow-up
period (standard drink=12 g of alcohol). Problem drinking was assessed
by means of the CAGE questionnaire, described in detail
elsewhere.7 8 12
Patients with
2 positive answers to the 4 questions were considered
CAGE-positive, a sensitive indicator of previous and current excessive
drinking (sensitivity and specificity 80% to
90%).7 8 12
In addition to the 57 subjects, an additional 37 patients who were already deceased had previously been followed for their aneurysms by conventional angiography (n=27) or at autopsy (n=10). During 19971998, questionnaires were completed during telephone interviews with relatives of these patients. Data on these patients were also available from medical records and from our previous follow-up studies and interviews in the 1970s and 1980s.10 12
In the outpatient department, blood samples were obtained
for measurement of markers of alcohol intake: erythrocyte mean cell
volume (MCV) (normal range, 80 to 96 fL) and
-glutamyltransferase
(GGT) (normal range, 0 to 44 U/L). Besides heavy drinking, cigarette
smoking has also been shown to elevate MCV
values.7 8
Recording of Blood Pressure
Values
Blood pressure (BP) values were recorded before
diagnosis and during follow-up. In patients with multiple BP
measurements, values in the first quarter and last quarter of the
follow-up were averaged. In the outpatient department, BP was measured
twice with an interval of 30 minutes with the subject in a supine
position after a rest of 15 minutes, with the average of these values
recorded for statistical comparisons. Definite hypertension was
defined as systolic pressure repeatedly >160 mm Hg,
diastolic pressure >95 mm Hg, or use of
antihypertensive medication.
Angiographic Examinations
All angiographies performed at the start and during
follow-up as well as 3D CT (helical) angiographies in the outpatient
department were examined by 2 neuroradiologists (K.P. and M.P.) who had
no knowledge of the patients case histories. The size of each
aneurysm was based on its greatest diameter measured in
standard conventional angiographic projections and with 1.1-fold
magnification of images taken into account; also recorded were
location, shape (round, oval, or multilobed), and direction (14
different directions grouped into 3 main categories for statistical
analyses: upward, downward, and horizontal). Conventional
follow-up angiographies had been done for 38 patients (20 because of
SAH from unruptured aneurysm, 5 because of SAH from a de novo
aneurysm, and 13 to check unruptured aneurysms).
Neither digital subtraction nor magnetic resonance angiographies were
used in this study.
Those 57 patients admitted to the outpatient department were studied by 3D CT angiography to determine change in aneurysm size and shape and to determine whether de novo aneurysms had appeared. Conventional follow-up angiographies had been done for 27 patients (18 SAH cases), a 3D CT angiography alone for 46 patients (1 SAH case), and both of these for 11 patients (7 SAH cases).
Helical CT angiography was performed with a HiSpeed Advantage scanner (General Electric Medical Systems). Three-dimensional CT angiograms were made with a computer workstation (Advantage Windows, General Electric). A helical CT angiogram has been shown to be a safe, accurate, rapid, relatively noninvasive, and reliable method (sensitivity and specificity >85%) to show aneurysms as small as 2 mm in diameter.14 15 16 In 50 patients, only 4 of 62 aneurysms (6%) seen in previous angiography could not be seen in 3D CT angiography. These were aneurysms 2 to 4 mm in diameter located in the internal carotid artery close to bone structures of the skull base and were recorded to be of size similar to that in the primary angiography, ie, these had not grown. Similarly, one incidental aneurysm with conventional angiographic follow-up was recorded that had decreased in size from 26 to 8 mm, likely because of intra-aneurysmal thrombus formation.
Aneurysm growth rates were measured as the difference between maximum aneurysm diameter between the initial and the follow-up angiography/autopsy and as difference in diameter per follow-up year. The third growth rate variable was relative change in diameter per follow-up year (difference/initial diameter/follow-up year).
Statistical Analysis
Data were analyzed with the Biomedical Data
Package statistical programs (BMDP Statistical Software Inc, version
1993, release 7.0, University of California at Los Angeles) and with
Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS for Windows,
release 9.0.1.1999, SPSS Inc). Fishers exact 2-tailed test, Pearson
2 test, test for linear trend,
Mann-Whitney U test, Students
t test, Wilcoxon signed
rank test, paired t test, and
Spearman rank correlation coefficients
(rs)
were used when appropriate.
Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs of independent factors associated with occurrence of growth of an unruptured aneurysm and formation of a de novo aneurysm were analyzed by unconditional multiple logistic regression. Those variables tested were as follows: age at diagnosis; sex; body mass index (BMI) (calculated as weight/height2 [kg/m2]); size, location, and direction of the largest unruptured aneurysm; diameter of ruptured aneurysm in cases with prior SAH; presence of multiple unruptured aneurysms; aneurysm group (symptomatic or incidental compared with those with prior SAH); cigarette smoking status, current smoking, number of cigarettes smoked daily, and duration of smoking; alcohol consumption and CAGE status; source of information on the patients health habits; family history of intracranial aneurysms; definite hypertension; antihypertensive medication; and BP values.
A maximum-likelihood stepwise forward elimination procedure was used, with selection of variables to be added on the basis of the magnitude of their probability values (<0.05). Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to establish independent association between risk factors and aneurysm growth rate variables. A 2-tailed P-value <0.05 was statistically significant.
| Results |
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The average annual aneurysm rupture rate was 1.6%
for the 87 patients (26 SAH cases/1648 person-years of follow-up) and
1.4% for the 79 patients with angiographic follow-up (21 SAH
cases/1529 person-years of follow-up). Aneurysms that later
ruptured had increased significantly
(P<0.0001) more often in size
(
1 mm) than had the largest aneurysms in those without
any rupture (26 of 26 [100%] versus 13 of 61 [21%]). Those
aneurysms that ruptured had also grown significantly
(P<0.0001) more than had the
largest aneurysms in those without any rupture (6.3±4.2 versus
0.8±1.9 mm; 0.95±1.37 versus 0.04±0.09 mm/y; 38.3±72.0
versus 0.9±2.3%/y).
The mean±SD diameter of aneurysms at the time of rupture was 11.2±6.3 mm (11.4±6.8 mm when measured by angiography), which was significantly (P<0.0001) greater than the largest aneurysm (6.0±4.2 mm) of those with no aneurysm rupture by the end of follow-up. The diameter of the ruptured aneurysm in those with a fatal rupture (13.2±8.1 mm) was nonsignificantly higher than that of those with a nonfatal rupture (10.0±4.8 mm). However, if those ruptured aneurysms measured only at autopsy were estimated to be at least 40% greater before death, then mortality was significantly (P<0.05) associated with aneurysm size (15.3±8.0 versus 10.0±4.8 mm).
Aneurysm Growth Rate and Baseline
Characteristics
Baseline characteristics by occurrence of growth
(
1 mm) of the largest unruptured aneurysm are shown in
Table 1
. Unruptured aneurysms increased in
size (
1 mm) in 39 of 87 patients (45%) and in 33 of 79 patients
(42%) who underwent angiographic follow-up. Aneurysm growth
was
2 mm in 35 of 87 patients (40%) and
3 mm in 31
patients (36%).
|
Current smoking at the time of control measurement of
aneurysm size was significantly associated with
aneurysm growth
(P<0.05)
(Table 1
). Among those whose aneurysms had grown, 11
(32%) smoked >20 cigarettes daily compared with 8 (17%) of those
without aneurysm growth. Current smoking also was more common
(P=0.050) in men (56%) than in
women (34%).
Growth rate variables for the largest aneurysm
are shown according to sex and smoking status in
Table 2
. Current smoking but not sex was associated
significantly with growth rate variables. Growth rate did not
differ between nonsmokers and those who quit during follow-up
(1.38±2.52 versus 1.33±2.69 mm).
|
Spearman rank correlation coefficients between
aneurysm growth rate and other continuous variables are
shown in
Table 3
. Since growth of an aneurysm was frequently
associated with its rupture, follow-up time and age at end of follow-up
were inversely correlated with aneurysm growth. BP values
measured in the outpatient department in connection with 3D CT
angiography were not associated with aneurysm growth rate
(rs
range, -0.148 to 0.179). Among current smokers and quitters, number
of cigarettes smoked daily tended to correlate with aneurysm
growth
(rs
range, 0.252 to 0.278), but duration of smoking as well as age at
starting of smoking did not correlate
(rs
range, -0.023 to -0.203). Although MCV and GGT did not correlate
with aneurysm growth
(rs
range, 0.068 to 0.160), MCV values were higher in current smokers
(P=0.080) and GGT values higher
in heavy alcohol drinkers
(P<0.05).
|
Risk Factors for Aneurysm
Growth
Multiple stepwise logistic regression showed that
current cigarette smoking at end of follow-up and female sex were
significant independent risk factors for aneurysm growth of
1 mm, but only current smoking was a risk factor for growth of
3 mm. ORs after adjustment for age at diagnosis are shown
separately for all patients with unruptured aneurysms as well
as for those with angiographic follow-up in
Table 4
. After additional adjustment for hypertension or
family history of aneurysms, only current smoking was a
significant risk factor for aneurysm growth of
1 mm
(adjusted OR, 4.20; 95% CI, 1.27 to 13.92). Cigarette smoking even at
the beginning of follow-up significantly predicted later
aneurysm growth (age- and sex-adjusted OR, 3.86; 95% CI, 1.37
to 10.89).
|
By stepwise linear regression, aneurysm growth rate variables both in all patients and in those with angiographic follow-up were associated independently only with current smoking at the end of follow-up. Standardized regression coefficients ranged from 0.220 to 0.293 (P=0.008 to P=0.054).
De Novo Aneurysms
During 1789 patient-years of follow-up in 89 patients
with unruptured aneurysms, 15 developed a total of 19 de novo
aneurysms in locations at which the initial angiography showed
no aneurysm. Probability of de novo aneurysm formation
cases was 0.84%/y (95% CI, 0.47% to 1.37%), and probability of
aneurysms was 1.06%/y (95% CI, 0.64% to 1.65%). Patients
with only 3D CT or conventional angiographic follow-up included 12 de
novo cases during 1637 angiographic follow-up years, yielding a
probability of 0.73% (95% CI, 0.38% to 1.28%) for average annual
aneurysm formation cases.
Women had a significantly (P=0.027) higher risk for de novo aneurysm formation than did men (1.15%/y; 95% CI, 0.62% to 1.96% versus 0.30%/y; 95% CI, 0.04% to 1.09%, respectively), which could not be explained by difference in duration of follow-up (21.3±8.7 years for women and 18.3±10.2 years for men) or by the proportion of 3D CT angiographies by sex. The proportion of de novo aneurysms found in 3D CT angiographies was similar to that in conventional angiographies (15% versus 17%, respectively).
New aneurysm cases were found in current smokers (1.08%/y; 95% CI, 0.43% to 2.22%) nonsignificantly more often than in nonsmokers (0.46%/y; 95% CI, 0.15% to 1.08%). However, current smokers were followed for a shorter time than others (17.1±9.4 versus 24.0±7.7 years, respectively; P<0.001) since their follow-up was more often terminated by SAH from a formerly unruptured aneurysm. Presence of de novo aneurysms was also not significantly associated with age at diagnosis or at end of follow-up, diameter or growth rate of unruptured aneurysm, BMI, aneurysm group, later SAH from unruptured aneurysm, duration of follow-up, alcohol variables, BP values, or hypertension. Among those who used antihypertensive medication, presence of de novo aneurysms was less frequent than among those who did not (1 of 26 versus 14 of 63; P=0.058). There were too few patients (n=8) with a family history of aneurysms to find any association with de novo aneurysm formation.
De novo aneurysms developed during a mean follow-up time of 18.8±7.7 years, a period not differing significantly from that of those without de novo aneurysms. In cases in which a de novo aneurysm caused SAH, the follow-up time was somewhat shorter (14.7±8.1 years; range, 3.4 to 28.4 years). In addition to verified de novo aneurysms, 4 patients had small (3 to 5 mm) aneurysms at the tip of the basilar artery or in the posterior inferior cerebellar artery on 3D CT angiography, the presence of which had not been noted because of a lack of earlier vertebral angiograms. These were not considered de novo aneurysms.
Risk Factors for De Novo Aneurysm
Formation
Of a total of 94 patients, 20 had de novo
aneurysms (16 women, 4 men; 10 current smokers, 5 noncurrent
smokers). Of these 20 patients, 5 had no unruptured aneurysms
at beginning of follow-up. They later developed new aneurysms
that caused SAH, but these patients survived to undergo angiography.
Stepwise multiple logistic regression showed that female sex and
current smoking at end of follow-up were the only significant
(P<0.05) independent risk
factors for de novo aneurysm formation. A logistic regression
model after adjustment for age at diagnosis and definite hypertension
is shown in
Table 5
.
|
| Discussion |
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Patients with a Prior SAH or Multiple
Aneurysms
The results of this study cannot be broadly generalized
since this patient population comprised mainly patients with prior SAH
and multiple aneurysms, which are the most commonly diagnosed
unruptured aneurysms. These patients may have an increased risk
for rupture of an unruptured
aneurysm.11 They
also are younger11 and more
likely cigarette
smokers17 18 than
those with an incidental or a single aneurysm. Of the 142
patients with unruptured aneurysms diagnosed in our clinic
before 1979, the present study included 63%. They were relatively
young at diagnosis since most older patients without a later SAH were
already deceased because of a long follow-up at the time of planned CT
angiography. However, the average annual aneurysm rupture rate
of 1.4% to 1.6% among our patients did not differ from that of most
other studies of unruptured
aneurysms,4 5 9 12
suggesting that we have not studied a high-risk subgroup of
patients.
Differences between SAH patients either with a single aneurysm or with multiple aneurysms can also be risk factors for aneurysm formation, since the presence of multiple aneurysms does not seem to increase the risk for rupture of an aneurysm.9 10 11 12 Indeed, the risk factors for aneurysm formation in this study were the same (female sex and cigarette smoking) as in previous studies of independent risk factors for multiple intracranial aneurysms.17 18 It is thus quite possible that the present study population differed from the general population or those with an incidental single aneurysm only in prevalence of cigarette smoking and of female sex.
Risk Factors for Aneurysm
Formation and Growth
In this study univariate statistics
revealed only slightly less than a significant association between
female sex and aneurysm growth as well as between current
smoking and de novo aneurysm formation. However, because
cigarette smoking was more common in men, multivariate
ORs became more significant than univariate ratios.
Cigarette smoking is more frequent among men than among women, with
this habit decreasing with age, in both SAH patients and general
population.7 8 12 19
According to our study, women may have an OR as high as 4 for risk for aneurysm formation compared with men. The reason that women do not have a much higher risk for SAH may be due to aneurysm growth rate, which is important in aneurysm rupture. The growth rate itself did not differ by sex. Therefore, a marked difference in aneurysm formation could not have been seen on the basis of sex in autopsy studies.4 20 At autopsy, several aneurysms, especially small ones, can be missed, since an aneurysm is at least 30% to 60% larger before death than after death and before fixation.20
Since female preponderance for SAH is not significant until the fifth decade, the cause of aneurysm formation in women is thought to be secondary to hormonal factors21 ; it has been presumed that estrogen has an inhibitory effect on aneurysm formation, and cigarette smoking also has antiestrogenic properties. The collagen content of cerebral arteries may also diminish after menopause, favoring aneurysm formation.21
Cigarette smoking has been shown, in several studies,6 7 8 12 19 to increase risk for SAH in all age groups, but the mechanism by which smoking increases this risk has remained unknown. The prevalence of smoking in SAH patients ranges from 45% to 75%, whereas in the general adult population it is 20% to 35%.6 7 8 12 19 According to findings of our study, it is likely that smoking causes increased risk for SAH by the formation of an aneurysm and especially by hastening growth of a preexisting aneurysm. Of smoking habits, number of cigarettes smoked daily seems to be more important in terms of aneurysm growth than duration of smoking or age at which one began smoking. In addition, those who had quit smoking had not increased their risk for aneurysm growth. Therefore, cessation of cigarette smoking seems always to be justified for patients with either unruptured aneurysms or prior SAH.
Recent studies suggest that cigarette smokers plasma and
artery wall elastase/
1-antitrypsin
imbalance (ie, increased elastase activity and/or decreased
1-antitrypsin activity) may contribute to
either aneurysm formation or
SAH.22 23 24 25
Topical application of elastase (but of neither
collagenase nor papaverine) experimentally to the artery
wall causes saccular aneurysm formation, growth, and even
rupture.26 Thus, it is quite
possible that regular cigarette smoking increases elastase activity
in the artery wall, and this, together with hemodynamic
stress, can cause aneurysm formation and even hasten
aneurysm growth, leading to rupture.
Risk for SAH From De Novo
Aneurysm
Diagnosis of de novo aneurysm is rare, since
these are almost always diagnosed after a rupture. If one assumes, on
the basis of our previous
study,12 that the risk of
rupture of an unruptured aneurysm is approximately 1.3%/y and
that the rate of formation of an aneurysm according to this
present study is 0.84%/y, patients aged <60 years whose
aneurysms have been treated successfully seem to have a risk
for SAH of 11 per 100 000 per year from a de novo aneurysm.
This incidence is even lower than that of the general adult
population.1 3 4
The risk of suffering SAH from a potential de novo aneurysm
seems to be so low that future angiographic monitoring cannot routinely
be recommended to detect such
lesions.
| Acknowledgments |
|---|
Received July 13, 2000; revision received October 9, 2000; accepted October 13, 2000.
| References |
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M. J.H. Wermer, G. J.E. Rinkel, and J. van Gijn Repeated Screening for Intracranial Aneurysms in Familial Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Stroke, December 1, 2003; 34(12): 2788 - 2791. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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T. Kurth, C. S. Kase, K. Berger, J. M. Gaziano, N. R. Cook, and J. E. Buring Smoking and Risk of Hemorrhagic Stroke in Women Stroke, December 1, 2003; 34(12): 2792 - 2795. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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R. Obray, R. Clatterbuck, A. Olvi, R. Tamargo, K. J. Murphy, and P. Gailloud De Novo Aneurysm Formation 6 and 22 Months after Initial Presentation in Two Patients AJNR Am. J. Neuroradiol., October 1, 2003; 24(9): 1811 - 1813. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. Juvela Prehemorrhage Risk Factors for Fatal Intracranial Aneurysm Rupture Stroke, August 1, 2003; 34(8): 1852 - 1857. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. Ballard, K. T. Kreiter, J. Claassen, R. G. Kowalski, E. S. Connolly, and S. A. Mayer Risk Factors for Continued Cigarette Use After Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Stroke, August 1, 2003; 34(8): 1859 - 1863. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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