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Stroke. 2007;38:1911-1915
Published online before print April 26, 2007, doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.106.474080
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(Stroke. 2007;38:1911.)
© 2007 American Heart Association, Inc.


Original Contributions

Can We Improve the Statistical Analysis of Stroke Trials?

Statistical Reanalysis of Functional Outcomes in Stroke Trials

The Optimising Analysis of Stroke Trials (OAST) Collaboration

From the Division of Stroke Medicine (P.M.W.B., L.J.G.), University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK; and the Medical Statistics Unit (T.C., S.P.), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

Correspondence to Prof Philip M.W. Bath, Division of Stroke Medicine, University of Nottingham, D Floor, South Block, Queen’s Medical Centre, Nottingham, NG7 2UH UK. E-mail philip.bath{at}nottingham.ac.uk


*    Abstract
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*Abstract
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Background and Purpose— Most large acute stroke trials have been neutral. Functional outcome is usually analyzed using a yes or no answer, eg, death or dependency versus independence. We assessed which statistical approaches are most efficient in analyzing outcomes from stroke trials.

Methods— Individual patient data from acute, rehabilitation and stroke unit trials studying the effects of interventions which alter functional outcome were assessed. Outcomes included modified Rankin Scale, Barthel Index, and "3 questions". Data were analyzed using a variety of approaches which compare 2 treatment groups. The results for each statistical test for each trial were then compared.

Results— Data from 55 datasets were obtained (47 trials, 54 173 patients). The test results differed substantially so that approaches which use the ordered nature of functional outcome data (ordinal logistic regression, t test, robust ranks test, bootstrapping the difference in mean rank) were more efficient statistically than those which collapse the data into 2 groups ({chi}2; ANOVA, P<0.001). The findings were consistent across different types and sizes of trial and for the different measures of functional outcome.

Conclusions— When analyzing functional outcome from stroke trials, statistical tests which use the original ordered data are more efficient and more likely to yield reliable results. Suitable approaches included ordinal logistic regression, t test, and robust ranks test.


Key Words: stroke • randomised controlled trial • statistical analysis


*    Introduction
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up arrowAbstract
*Introduction
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down arrowResults
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The management of patients with acute or recent stroke has benefited significantly from the results of randomized controlled trials and meta-analyses of these. For example, functional outcome is improved with alteplase, aspirin, management in a Stroke Unit, and community occupational therapy.1–7 In contrast, some studies were overtly negative finding that treatment worsened outcome, eg, DCLHb, enlimomab, selfotel, or tirilazad.8–11 However, the majority of acute stroke trials were neutral in spite of positive preclinical findings. The failure of these latter studies can be attributed to multiple causes, including the relevance of laboratory findings to clinical stroke,12 inadequate sample size,13 choice of primary outcome, and its statistical analysis.

Measures of functional outcome such as the modified Rankin Scale (mRS),14 Barthel Index (BI)15 and "3-questions"16 are ordinal in nature: that is, they consist of ≥3 categories which have a natural ordering, eg, the mRS has 7 categories ranging from no symptoms to dead. It might then be expected that statistical analysis would preserve and use the data in this ordinal form. However, most published trials have used a "yes/no" (dichotomized) analysis of functional outcome, eg, combining categories within the mRS into 2 groups, such as "dead or dependent" (eg, mRS 3 to 6) and "independent" (mRS 0 to 2), and then comparing these between the treatment groups. Unfortunately, there is little agreement where mRS data should be divided (ie, 0,1 versus 2 to 6,1 0 to 2 versus 3 to 6,17 or 0 to 3 versus 4 to 6,18) and whether this matters.19 Furthermore, collapsing data in this way generally lowers statistical power and therefore reduces the chance of finding a significant treatment effect because information from many subjects are ignored. For example, patients responding to treatment and achieving a mRS of 3 rather than 4 or 0 rather than 1 are not detected in a analysis comparing mRS 0 to 2 with 3 to 6.

Inadequacies in the statistical analysis of trials in acute stroke are apparent in 2 examples. First, the ECASS II trial of alteplase showed no treatment effect for its primary outcome (when comparing mRS 0,1 with mRS 2 to 6) but was positive when reanalyzed using the data collapsed in a different place (mRS 0 to 2 versus 3 to 6)20 or when analyzed using a "bootstrapping" technique (Figure 1).21 Second, 5 trials of tirilazad individually showed no treatment effect when analyzed using dichotomous outcomes22–24 although a meta-analysis found that the intervention was associated with a worse outcome25; post hoc analysis then suggested that one of these trials was negative24 (not neutral) when analyzed using a method which preserved the original ordered data (P.B., unpublished data, 2004).


Figure 1474080
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Figure 1. Distribution in mRS in the ECASS II trial showing the primary and post hoc analyses.20

We aimed to identify which statistical methods might optimize the analysis of data from functional outcome scales in stroke trials.


*    Methods
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*Methods
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Identification of Trials
We sought individual patient data from randomized controlled trials assessing functional outcome after stroke for interventions which were either positive or negative according to the trial publication, or were included in a meta-analysis showing benefit or harm; neutral trials in a neutral meta-analysis were excluded. Published studies (full article or abstract) fulfilling these criteria were identified from electronic searches of the Cochrane Library (to end of 2005). In each case, we invited the chief investigator to join the collaboration and share their data. In some cases where individual data could not be obtained it was possible to extract it from the original publication.

Trial Data
Demographic (age, gender), trial (setting, intervention, length of follow-up, result), patient severity, and functional outcome (BI, mRS, "3 question" scale [3Q, a derivative of mRS], or another measure) data were collected for each trial. In factorial trials or those having >2 treatment groups, data were analyzed for each comparison of active therapy versus control. Where outcome data were scored at several time points (eg, 1, 3 and 6 months) the time point used for the primary outcome was included.

Statistical Tests
We compared different statistical tests for assessing treatment effect. Some of these required the data to be collapsed into groups (such as the {chi}2 test), whereas others used the original ordinal data (such as Wilcoxon test and t test). Statistical tests which dichotomized ("yes/no") data were assessed multiple times collapsing the data in different places, eg, mRS 0,1 versus 2 to 6, 0 to 2 versus 3 to 6 and 0 to 5 versus 6. A description of the statistical tests used is given in the supplemental Appendix I, available online at http://stroke.ahajournals.org.

Comparison of Statistical Tests
Each data set was analyzed using each statistical test. These results were then ordered within each trial and given a rank, with the lowest rank given to the test which produced the most significant result, ie, the largest z score, within that trial. A 2-way analysis of variance test was then used to see on average which statistical test had produced the lowest ranks. We were then able to order the statistical tests in terms of their efficiency in identifying treatment effects. We also assessed how many statistically significant (at 5%) results each test found.

To assess the validity and reliability of the results, a number of supplementary analyses were carried out. First, the comparison of statistical tests was repeated within subgroups of trials sharing similar characteristics; second, the statistical assumptions of the tests were assessed; and last, the sensitivity of the tests was explored to make sure treatment effects were only detected when they truly existed (the type 1 error rate). Technical details of these supplementary analyses can be found in the supplemental Appendix II, available online at http://stroke.ahajournals.org.

Analyses were carried out in SAS (version 8.2) and Stata (version 7) and significance was taken at P<0.05.


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Trials Characteristics
A total of 55 comparisons of active versus control treatment (54 173 patients) were included, these comprising individual patient data from 38 trials and summary data extracted from the publications of a further 9 studies; 6 trials had 2 active treatment groups, and 1 had 3 active groups so a further 8 comparisons were available (Figure 2). The data related to 34 acute stroke trials, 7 trials of rehabilitation (1164 patients) and 6 trials of stroke units (1399 patients). BI was used to measure functional outcome in 22 trials, 18 used the mRS, 3 used the 3Q scale, 1 used the Rivermead scale, 2 related trials used the Nottingham ADL scale, and 1 trial used its own ordinal measure.26 Included trials studied the following interventions: abciximab (AbESTT); alteplase (ATLANTIS A & B, ECASS II, NINDS); aspirin (CAST, IST); atenolol (BEST); citicoline; DCLHb; ebselen; edaravone; enlimomab (EAST); factor VIIa; feeding (FOOD 3); nadroparin (FISS, FISS-TRIS); nimodipine (INWEST); occupational therapy (Corr, Gilbertson, Logan, TOTAL, Walker); physiotherapy (Young); pro-urokinase (PROACT II); selfotel (ASSIST); streptokinase (ASK, MAST-E, MAST-I); stroke unit (Dover, Helsinki, Kuopio, Nottingham, Orpington, Newcastle); and tirilazad (RANTTAS I & II, STIPAS, TESS I & II). Data relating to 16 trials or interventions which fulfilled the inclusion criteria were not made available.


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Figure 2. Identification of included trials.

The method of analyzing functional outcome used in the original trial publication varied considerably, see supplemental Appendix III, available online at http://stroke.ahajournals.org. Twenty-three (48.9%) trials assessed the treatment effect using a method which required the data to be collapsed into groups, eg, {chi}2 test; 17 (36.2%) used a test based on comparing medians and 4 (8.5%) used a test which compared means; the remaining trials were unpublished so the method of analysis is not known.

Comparison of Statistical Tests
The statistical tests assessed differed significantly in the results they gave for each trial (2-way ANOVA, P<0.0001). The ordering of the tests showed that those which analyze the original ordinal data generally perform better than those which collapse the data into ≥2 groups. The most efficient tests included ordinal logistic regression, t test, robust rank test and bootstrapping the difference in mean rank (Table). The subgroup analysis showed the same ordering of tests irrespective of type of intervention (acute, rehabilitation, stroke unit), trial size, time between randomization and onset, patient age, baseline severity, outcome measure, length of follow-up, and trial result (supplemental Appendix IV, available online at http://stroke.ahajournals.org).


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Comparison of Rank Scores for 16 Statistical Tests


Figure 4474080
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When assessed by how many trials were statistically significant, those tests which did not collapse the data into groups again out-performed the other approaches; for example, ordinal logistic regression (using raw data) gave a statistically significant result in 25.9% of trials, whereas the 2x2 {chi}2 test comparing death or poor outcome to an excellent outcome only gave a significant result in 9.3% of the trials (Figure 3).


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Figure 3. Percentage of trials significant at the 5% level with each statistical test.

Test Assumptions and Sensitivity
The statistical assumptions of the t test were not met for the majority of trials, and the assumptions of the ordinal logistic regression analysis failed for 8 of the 55 data sets; in contrast, the assumptions for the other tests were maintained. The sensitivity analysis showed that the top performing statistical tests were not overly sensitive, and statistically significant treatment effects were only found where they truly existed; see supplemental Appendix V, available online at http://stroke.ahajournals.org, for detailed results.


*    Discussion
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*Discussion
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These results show that statistical approaches which analyze the original ordinal data for functional outcome are more efficient than those which work on preprocessed data which has been collapsed into ≥2 groups. Interestingly, this point was originally demonstrated mathematically by Shannon in 1948.27 In particular, ordinal logistic regression, t test, robust ranks test, and bootstrapping (the difference in mean rank) performed well and appear to be useful irrespective of the type of stroke trial, patient or intervention. Although individual tests based on dichotomized data using {chi}2 analysis (eg, "dead/dependent" versus "independent") were effective for some data sets, they performed poorly in many and therefore cannot be recommended as general solutions for analyzing stroke trials. From an historical perspective, it is quite possible that trials which collapsed mRS or BI in 2 groups may have used a suboptimal analysis, and this may have contributed to false neutral findings in some cases in the past. For example, MAST-E28 and STIPAS24 were neutral as reported using dichotomous analysis but negative when assessed with ordinal approaches.

Several comments can be made about this study. First, it aimed to include data from all stroke trials assessing a beneficial or harmful intervention. Unfortunately, data were not made available for all identified trials; where possible, we created individual data from publications which provided patient numbers by outcome score. Data were missing for a variety of trial types (acute/rehabilitation/stroke unit) and sizes, and functional outcome measure (mRS/BI), so it is unlikely that a systematic bias was introduced into the findings; however, the precision of the results may have been attenuated by the missing trials. Second, we did not exhaustively search for all possible statistical tests relevant to the problem of analyzing ordered categorical data; instead, we focused on those approaches which are available in standard statistical textbooks and computer packages. Additionally, we could not include some tests used in recent trials, eg, patient specific outcomes29 and Cochran Mantel-Haenszel test,30 because these require access to individual data for both baseline and outcome variables, and these data were not available uniformly. Third, some of the statistical assumptions underlying the more efficient tests were not met in all trials; for example, the t test assumes data are normally distributed, whereas ordinal logistic regression assumes that any treatment effect is similar across outcome levels ("proportionality of odds", ie, the odds of moving a treated patient from mRS 2 to 1 is similar to that for moving them from 5 to 4). Nevertheless, the robustness of these tests to deviations from their underlying assumptions means that they remain relevant for analyzing functional outcome data from stroke trials.

If alternative approaches to analyzing functional outcome data are to be used in the future, it is pertinent to ask how sample size should be calculated at the trial design stage. Historically, most calculations assumed that functional outcome would be dichotomized and analyzed using a {chi}2 test approach.13 Although future trials could continue to calculate sample size in the same way (and then gain extra power by analyzing their data using an ordinal approach), specific sample size calculations are available when data are to be analyzed using ordinal logistic regression31 or the t test. Ideally, the extra power gained by using an ordinal statistical approach should not be used to reduce sample size; stroke trials have been too small in the past, as shown in a recent meta-analysis,13 and this may also have contributed to the failure of some of them.

A further issue with using a statistical test which analyses ordered categorical data are how to report the results to patients, carers, clinicians, and health-policy makers. The results of dichotomous tests may be summarized easily as the proportion of patients who benefit (or suffer) with a treatment, ie, alteplase reduced absolute death or dependency (mRS >1) by 13% in the NINDS part 2 trial.1 In contrast, ordinal tests will need to be presented as the average absolute improvement in outcome, eg, alteplase improved the mRS by 1 (of 7) point and BI by 22.5 (of 100) points. Alternatively, the combined odds ratio and its confidence intervals would be reported if ordinal logistic regression was used. In this respect, health consumers will need to decide what differences in mRS and BI are worthwhile, both clinically and in terms of health economics. In reality, it is reasonable to present the effect on functional outcome using both absolute percentage change and mean or median change in functional outcome score, and show this data graphically (as in Figure 1).

In summary, we suggest that ongoing and future trials should consider using statistical approaches which use the original ordered categorical data in the primary analysis of functional outcome measures. Such ordinal tests include ordinal logistic regression, and the robust ranks test; the t test may also be used although its assumptions were not meant in the majority of trials.


*    Acknowledgments
 
Secretariat and writing committee: Philip M.W. Bath (chief investigator, Nottingham, UK); Laura J. Gray (lead statistician, Nottingham, UK); Timothy Collier (statistical advisor, London, UK); Stuart Pocock (statistical advisor, London, UK). Statistical advisor: James Carpenter (Medical Statistics Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK).

The following contributors provided individual patient data from their trial, and commented on the draft manuscript: Abciximab: H Adams (USA), E. Barnathan (USA); W Hacke (Germany); ASK: G. Donnan (Australia); ASSIST 07 & 10: S. Davis (Australia); ATLANTIS A & B: G. Albers, S. Hamilton (USA); BEST Pilot & Main: D. Barer (UK); Citicoline 1, 7, 10, 18: A. Davalos (Spain); Corr: S. Corr (UK); Dover Stroke Unit: P. Langhorne (UK); DCLHb: P. Koudstaal, R. Saxena (Netherlands); Ebselen: T. Yamaguchi (Japan); ECASS II: W. Hacke, E. Bluhmki (Germany); Factor VII: S. Mayer (USA), K. Begtrup (Denmark); FISS: R. Kay (Hong Kong); FOOD 3: M. Dennis (UK); Gilbertson: L. Gilbertson (UK); INWEST: N.-G. Wahlgren, N. Ahmed (Sweden); IST: P. Sandercock (UK); Kuopio Stroke Unit: J. Sivenius (Finland); Logan: P. Logan (UK); MAST-I: L. Candelise (Italy), J. Wardlaw (UK); Newcastle Stroke Unit: H. Rodgers (UK); NINDS: J. Marler (USA); Parker: C. Parker (UK); Nottingham Stroke Unit: N. Lincoln, P. Berman (UK); RANNTAS I & II, STIPAS, TESS I & II: P. Bath (UK); Walker 1 & 2: M. Walker (UK); Young: J. Young, A. Forster (UK).

We thank the patients who took part in these studies, and the trialists who shared their data. The study was conceived, initiated, managed, analyzed, and interpreted independently of any pharmaceutical company. Each collaborator listed above commented on the draft manuscript.

Sources of Funding

L.J.G. is funded, in part, by BUPA Foundation and The Stroke Association (UK). P.M.W.B. is Stroke Association Professor of Stroke Medicine. The funding sources had no involvement in this project.

Disclosures

None.

Received September 27, 2006; revision received November 2, 2006; accepted November 21, 2006.


*    References
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowMethods
up arrowResults
up arrowDiscussion
*References
down arrowReferences 
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down arrowReferences    
 
1. The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke rt-PA Stroke Study Group. Tissue plasminogen activator for acute stroke. N Engl J Med. 1995; 333: 1581–1587.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

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3. Walker M, Gladman J, Lincoln N, Siemonsma P, Whiteley T. Occupational therapy for stroke patients not admitted to hospital: a randomised controlled trial. The Lancet. 1999; 354: 278–280.

4. Chen ZM, Sandercock P, Pan HC, Counsell C, Collins R, Liu LS, Xie JX, Warlow C, Peto R; on behalf of the CAST and IST Collaborative Groups. Indications for early aspirin use in acute ischemic stroke: a combined analysis of 40 000 randomized patients from the chinese acute stroke trial and the international stroke trial. Stroke. 2000; 31: 1240–1249.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

5. Stroke Unit Trialists’ Collaboration. Organised inpatient (stroke unit) care for stroke. The Cochrane Library. Oxford: Update Software; 2002.

6. The ATLANTIS ECASS and NINDS rt-PA Study Group Investigators. Association of outcome with early stroke treatment: pooled analysis of ATLANTIS, ECASS, and NINDS rt–PA Stroke trials. The Lancet. 2004; 363: 768–813.

7. Walker MF, Leonardi-Bee J, Bath P, Langhorne P, Corr S, Drummond A, Gilbertson L, Gladman JRF, Jongbloed L, Parker C. An individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials of community occupational therapy for stroke patients. Stroke. 2004; 35: 2226–2232.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

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15. Mahoney FI, Barthel DW. Functional evaluation: The Barthel Index. Maryland State Medical Journal. 1965: 61–65.

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OAST Supplemental Appendix I: Statistical Tests Compared (see Table I)

Included Tests
Univariate statistical approaches for analyzing dichotomous and ordinal data comprised tests based on {chi}2, ordinal, and bootstrap approaches.1–3 Sixteen statistical approaches were assessed: (1) {chi}2 2x2 test—death or poor outcome versus good outcome (BI <60 versus 60 to 100, mRS 3 to 6 versus 0 to 2, 3Q 1/2 versus 3/4); (2) {chi}2 2x2 test—death or poor outcome versus excellent outcome (BI <95 versus 95/100, mRS 2 to 6 versus 0/1, 3Q 1 to 3 versus 4); (3) {chi}2 2x2 test—death versus alive; (4) {chi}2 2x3 test (unordered data)—death versus poor versus good outcome; (5) {chi}2 2x4 test (unordered data)—death versus poor outcome versus good outcome versus excellent outcome; (6) Cochran-Armitage trend test (ordered data with 3 levels)—death versus poor versus good outcome); (7) Cochran-Armitage trend test (ordered data with 4 levels)—death versus poor versus good versus excellent outcome); (8) ordinal logistic regression (raw data); (9) ordinal logistic regression (3 levels) (10) ordinal logistic regression (4 levels); (11) median test; (12) Wilcoxon/Mann-Whitney U test (adjusted for ties); (13) robust ranks test (RRT4); (14) Kolmogorov-Smirnov test; (15) t test (unpooled variances); (16) bootstrap of difference in mean rank (with 3x3000 cycles5,6). {chi}2 tests were performed without continuity correction because most trials enrolled >100 patients.


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TABLE I. Sixteen Statistical Tests Compared and the Data Used for the 3 Main Scales Compared.1–3

Excluded Tests
Three nonparametric tests were excluded: Wald-Wolfowitz runs test; Siegel-Tukey test; and the Cramer-von Mises 2-sample test, on methodological grounds.2

Statistical Detail for Nonstandard Tests
RRT
The RRT is an alternative to the Wilcoxon test; it tests whether the median of one group is equal to another, but unlike the Wilcoxon test it does not assume that the distributions of the 2 groups are equal, ie, it makes no assumptions about the variance of the 2 groups.3,4

Bootstrapping
Bootstrapping is a computationally intensive method which involves resampling data from a given sample. The main advantage of bootstrapping over more traditional methods is that it does not make assumptions about the distribution of the data. In this report we bootstrap the difference in mean rank; the procedure for doing this is outlined below:5

Take a dataset, which contains N observations.
Draw a sample with replacement of size N (using replacement means that some of the original observations may appear in the new sample more than once and some not at all).
Estimate the parameter of interest (here the difference in mean rank) and store the result.
Repeat 2 and 3 many times; here we use 3 sets of 3000 as used in the ECASS II trial.6
Compare the distribution of the stored results to the actual point estimate from the original dataset.

Ordinal Logistic Regression
Ordinal logistic regression can be used when the dependent variable is ordered categorical. It is similar to logistic regression, but it simultaneously estimates multiple end points instead of just one. The number of end points it estimates is equivalent to the number of ordered categories minus one. For example, if the mRS was the dependent variable of interest it would compare the following j categories:

0 versus 1,2,3,4,5,6
0,1 versus 2,3,4,5,6
0,1,2 versus 3,4,5,6
0,1,2,3 versus 4,5,6
0,1,2,3,4 versus 5,6
0,1,2,3,4,5 versus 6

Ordinal logistic regression provides one overall estimate for each covariate in the model and not one for each cut point. This assumes that the overall odds ratio is constant no matter which cut is taken. So, for example the odds ratio for the treatment effect would be interpreted as the odds of being in category j or above for all choices of j comparing treatment 1 to treatment 0.7


*    References 
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowMethods
up arrowResults
up arrowDiscussion
up arrowReferences
*References 
down arrowReferences  
down arrowReferences   
down arrowReferences    
 
1. Altman DG. Practical Statistics for Medical Research. London: Chapman & Hall; 1991.

1. Conover WJ. Practical Nonparametric Statistics. 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons; 1971.

1. Siegel S, Castellan NJ. Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences. 2 ed. Singapore: McGraw-Hill; 1988: 1–399.

1. Fligner MA, Policello GE. Robust Rank Procedures for the Behrens–Fisher Problem. J Am Stat Assoc. 1981; 76: 162–168.[CrossRef]

1. Efron B, Tibshirani RJ. An introduction to the bootstrap. In: Cox, DR, et al, eds. Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability. Vol. 57. New York: Chapman & Hall; 1993: 1–436.

1. Stingele R, Bluhmki E, HackeW. Bootstrap statistics of ECASS II data: just another post hoc analysis of a negative stroke trial? Cerebrovascular Diseases. 2001; 11: 30–33.[CrossRef][Medline] [Order article via Infotrieve]

1. Agresti A. Modelling ordered categorical data: Recent advances and future challenges. Statistics in Medicine. 1999; 18: 2191–2207.[CrossRef][Medline] [Order article via Infotrieve]

OAST Supplemental Appendix II: Supplementary Analyses

Subgroup Analysis
Subgroup analyses were performed by assessing the efficiency of the different tests for differing trial characteristics: type of intervention (acute drug treatment, rehabilitation, stroke unit); trial size (<500, ≥500 participants); time between randomization and stroke onset (≤6, >6 hours); patient age (median ≤70, >70 years); baseline severity (control group death rate adjusted for length of follow-up, ≤median (0.05), >median); outcome measure (BI, mRS, 3Q); length of follow-up (≤3 months, >3 months); and trial result (positive, negative).

Statistical Assumptions
The principal statistical assumptions underlying the tests which performed well were assessed to ensure that their use was appropriate for stroke trial data. Assumptions included: ordinal logistic regression—proportionality of odds across response categories (ie, the magnitude of improvement or hazard, with a treatment, would be similar irrespective of baseline severity, age etc); t test—normal distribution of outcome scores (the use of the unpooled t test means that homogeneity of variances between the treatment groups was not a necessary assumption); RRT—independence of treatment groups.1,2

Type 1 Error Rate
It is conceivable that an overly sensitive statistical test might find significance in a trial when no real difference existed, a type 1 error. We assessed the type 1 error rate for the 3 most efficient statistical tests, using data from 3 representative trials including 1 of the 3 measures of functional outcome (BI: RANTTAS,3 mRS: NINDS,4 3Q: IST5). From these we generated 1000 data sets, using random sampling with replacement, in which any treatment difference could have occurred only by chance. Tests maintaining adherence to the nominal type 1 error rate would expect to see a significant result in around 50 of the 1000 data sets.


*    References  
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowMethods
up arrowResults
up arrowDiscussion
up arrowReferences
up arrowReferences 
*References  
down arrowReferences   
down arrowReferences    
 
2. Altman DG. Practical statistics for medical research. London: Chapman & Hall; 1991.

2. Siegel S, Castellan NJ. Nonparametric statistics for the behavioral sciences. 2 ed. Singapore: McGraw-Hill; 1988: 1–399.

2. The RANTTAS Investigators, A randomized trial of tirilazad mesylate in patients with acute stroke (RANTTAS). Stroke. 1996; 27: 1453–1458.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

2. The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke rt-PA Stroke Study Group. Tissue plasminogen activator for acute stroke. N Engl J Med. 1995; 333: 1581–1587.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

2. International Stroke Trial Collaborative Group. The International Stroke Trial (IST): a randomised trial of aspirin, subcutaneous heparin, both, or neither among 19435 patients with acute ischaemic stroke. Lancet. 1997; 349: 1569–1581.[CrossRef][Medline] [Order article via Infotrieve]

OAST Supplemental Appendix III: Trial Data (see Tables II and IIIDownDownDown)

Excluded Trials
Unavailable data: aptiganel, Day hospital, DIAS, ECASS I, Glycine, Hyperbaric oxygen, LUB-INT-9, Norwegian, Orpington (1993 & 1995), Ronning, Sulter and Goteberg stroke unit trials PROACT I, STAT, ZK200775.


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TABLE II. Baseline Data for Included Trials


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TABLE II. (Continued)


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TABLE III. Primary Outcome for Included Trials


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TABLE III. (Continued)


*    References   
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowMethods
up arrowResults
up arrowDiscussion
up arrowReferences
up arrowReferences 
up arrowReferences  
*References   
down arrowReferences    
 
3. Abciximab Emergent Stroke Treatment Trial (AbESTT) Investigators. Emergency treatment of Abciximab for treatment of patients with acute ischemic stroke. Results of a randomized phase 2 trial. Stroke. 2005; 36: 880–890.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

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3. Clark WM, et al. The rtPA (alteplase) 0–6 hour acute stroke trial, part A (A0276g): Results of a double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter study. Stroke. 2000; 31: 811–816.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. Clark WM, et al. Recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (alteplase) for ischemic stroke 3 to 5 hours after symptom onset. The ATLANTIS study: a randomized controlled trial. J Am Med Assoc. 1999; 282: 2019–2026.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. Barer DH, et al. Low dose beta blockade in acute stroke ("BEST" trial): an evaluation. BMJ. 1988; 296: 737–741.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. CAST (Chinese Acute Stroke Trial) Collaborative Group. CAST: randomised placebo-controlled trial of early aspirin use in 20,000 patients with acute ischaemic stroke. Lancet. 1997; 349: 1641–1649.[CrossRef][Medline] [Order article via Infotrieve]

3. Clark WM, Warach SJ, Pettigrew LC. A randomised dose-response trial of citicoline in acute ischemic stroke patients. Neurology. 1977; 49: 671–678.

3. Clark WM, et al. A randomised efficacy trial of citicoline in patients with acute ischaemic stroke. Stroke. 1999; 30: 2592–2597.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

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3. Clark WM, et al. A phase III randomized efficacy trial of 2000mg citicoline in acute ischemic stroke patients. Neurology. 2001; 57: 1595–1602.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. Saxena R, et al. Controlled safety study of a hemoglobin-based oxygen carrier, DCLHb, in acute ischemic stroke. Stroke. 1999; 30: 993–996.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. Enlimomab Acute Stroke Trial Investigators. Use of anti-ICAM-1 therapy in ischemic stroke. Neurology. 2001; 57: 1428–1434.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. Yamaguchi T, et al. Ebselen in acute ischemic stroke. Stroke. 1998; 29: 12–17.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. Hacke W, et al. Randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial of thrombolytic therapy with intravenous alteplase in acute ischaemic stroke (ECASS II). Lancet. 1998; 352: 1245–1251.[CrossRef][Medline] [Order article via Infotrieve]

3. The Edaravone Acute Brain Infarction Study Group (Chair: Eiichi Otomo MD). Effect of a Novel Free Radical Scavenger, Edaravone (MCI-186), on acute brain infarction. Cerebrovascular Diseases. 2003; 15: 222–229.[CrossRef][Medline] [Order article via Infotrieve]

3. Mayer SA, et al. Recombinant activated factor VII for acute intracerebral hemorrhage. N Engl J Med. 2005; 352: 777–785.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. Kay R, et al. Low-molecular-weight heparin for the treatment of acute ischemic stroke. N Engl J Med. 1995; 333: 1588–1593.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. Wong KS, et al. A randomized controlled study of low molecular weight heparin versus aspirin for the treatment of acute ischaemic stroke in patients with large artery occlusive disease. Presented at the 14th European Stroke Conference. 2005. Bologna, Italy.

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3. The Multicenter Acute Stroke Trial - Europe Study Group, Thrombolytic therapy with streptokinase in acute ischemic stroke. N Engl J Med. 1996; 335: 145–150.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. Multicentre Acute Stroke Trial-Italy (MAST-I) Group. Randomised controlled trial of streptokinase, aspirin, and combination of both in treatment of acute ischaemic stroke. Lancet. 1995; 346: 1509–1514.[CrossRef][Medline] [Order article via Infotrieve]

3. Morris AD, et al. A pilot study of streptokinase for acute cerebral infarction. Quarterly Journal of Medicine. 1995; 88: 727–731.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke rt-PA Stroke Study Group. Tissue plasminogen activator for acute stroke. N Engl J Med. 1995; 333: 1581–1587.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. Furlan A, et al. Intra-arterial prourokinase for acute ischemic stroke The PROACT II study: a randomized trial. J Am Med Assoc. 1999; 282: 2003–2011.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. The RANTTAS Investigators. A randomized trial of tirilazad mesylate in patients with acute stroke (RANTTAS). Stroke. 1996; 27: 1453–1458.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. Haley EC. High-dose tirilazad for acute stroke (RANTTAS II). Stroke. 1998.

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3. Orgogozo JM, TESS II. Unpublished Work, 1995.

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3. Logan PA, et al. A randomised controlled trial of enhanced social service occupational therapy for stroke patients. Clinical Rehabilitation. 1997; 11: 107–113.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

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3. Juby LC, et al. The effect of a stroke rehabilitation unit on functional and psychological outcome: a randomised controlled trial. Cerebrovascular Diseases. 1996; 6: 106–110.[CrossRef]

3. Kalra L, et al. Alternative strategies for stroke care: a prospective randomised controlled trial. Lancet. 2000; 356: 894–899.[CrossRef][Medline] [Order article via Infotrieve]

3. Aitken PD, et al. General medical or geriatric unit care for acute stroke? A controlled trial (Abstract). Age and Ageing. 1993; 22 (supp 2): 4–5.

OAST Supplemental Appendix IV: Results (see Table IV)


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TABLE IV. Comparison of the Rankings of Statistical Tests by Trial and Patient Characteristics

OAST Supplemental Appendix V: Results
Type 1 Error Rate
Analysis of 1000 resampled random datasets from the 3 trials1–3 did not find any evidence of an increased type 1 error rate for ordinal logistic regression with the number of "positive" data sets being: BI 39/1000 (P=0.96); mRS 57/1000 (P=0.17) and 3Q 56/1000 (P=0.21). Similar results were found for both the t test and RRT.

Test Assumptions
When assessing ordinal logistic regression, the assumption of proportionality of odds (likelihood ratio test comparing the multinomial logistic model to the ordinal logistic regression model) was not met (P<0.05) in 8 of the 55 data sets (ASK, P=0.001; ASSIST 07, P=0.002; ATLANTIS A, P=0.01; citicoline 10, P=0.004; FOOD 3, P=0.04; MAST-I, P=0.003; Orpington Domiciliary care, P=0.02; Orpington Team, P=0.02). The assumption of normality required for the t test did not hold for any of the data sets. In contrast, the assumption of the RRT was met in all cases while the bootstrap approach is assumption free.


*    References    
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowMethods
up arrowResults
up arrowDiscussion
up arrowReferences
up arrowReferences 
up arrowReferences  
up arrowReferences   
*References    
 
5. The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke rt-PA Stroke Study Group. Tissue plasminogen activator for acute stroke. N Engl J Med. 1995; 333: 1581–1587.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

5. The RANTTAS Investigators. A randomized trial of tirilazad mesylate in patients with acute stroke (RANTTAS). Stroke. 1996; 27: 1453–1458.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

5. International Stroke Trial Collaborative Group. The International Stroke Trial (IST); a randomised trial of aspirin, subcutaneous heparin, both, or neither among 19435 patients with acute ischaemic stroke. Lancet. 1997; 349: 1569–1581.[CrossRef][Medline] [Order article via Infotrieve]




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