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Published Online
on January 26, 2006

Stroke. 2006
Published online before print January 26, 2006, doi: 10.1161/01.STR.0000204118.87477.46
A more recent version of this article appeared on March 1, 2006
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Right arrow Epidemiology

Submitted on December 21, 2005
Accepted on January 5, 2006

Ten-Year Incidence of Retinal Emboli in an Older Population

Sudha Cugati MS; Jie Jin Wang MMed, PhD; Elena Rochtchina MApplStat; and Paul Mitchell MD, PhD*

From the Department of Ophthalmology, University of Sydney (Centre for Vision Research, Westmead Millennium Institute), and the Vision Cooperative Research Centre, Australia.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: paul_mitchell{at}wmi.usyd.edu.au.

Background and Purpose--To assess 10-year incidence of retinal emboli and its predictors in an older population.

Methods--Survivors of 3654 Blue Mountains Eye Study participants ≥49 years of age were re-examined 5 and 10 years later. Incident emboli were assessed from retinal photographs.

Results--Cumulative 10-year incidence was 2.9% (95% CI, 2.1% to 3.6%) among 2361 at risk. Age was associated with incident emboli (Ptrend=0.0001). After multivariate adjustment, hypertension (odds ratio [OR], 1.8; CI, 1.0 to 3.1), hypercholesterolemia (OR, 1.3; CI, 1.0 to 1.6), overweight (OR, 3.3; CI, 1.6 to 6.9), current smoking (OR, 2.5; CI, 1.1 to 5.9), increasing fibrinogen level (OR per mg/dL, 1.1; CI, 1.0 to 1.2), and retinal vascular signs (arteriovenous nicking OR, 2.0; CI, 1.2 to 3.6; arteriolar wall opacification OR, 2.3; CI, 1.1 to 5.0; retinal vein occlusion OR, 3.2; CI, 1.0 to 9.9) were significantly associated with incident emboli.

Conclusions--The 3% incidence of retinal arteriolar emboli found in this older population is likely to be an underestimate attributable to the transient nature of emboli and differential loss to follow-up. Most cardiovascular risk factors predict retinal embolism.


Key words: cohort study • embolism • epidemiology • incidence




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J. J. Wang, S. Cugati, M. D. Knudtson, E. Rochtchina, R. Klein, B. E.K. Klein, T. Y. Wong, and P. Mitchell
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