Stroke, Vol 24, 42-48, Copyright © 1993 by American Heart Association
A Menotti, M Lanti, F Seccareccia, S Giampaoli and F Dima
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The present investigation was aimed at evaluating
the incidence and prediction of a first major cerebrovascular (fatal or
nonfatal) event. METHODS: The study population included the two Italian
rural samples of the Seven Countries Study (namely, Montegiorgio and
Crevalcore), accounting for a total of 1,712 men aged 40-59 years at entry
and followed up for mortality and morbidity for 25 years. A number of
individual variables measured at baseline, at the fifth year, and at the
tenth year of follow-up and possibly related to cerebrovascular events were
considered. Of the 1,709 subjects free from major cerebrovascular events at
entry 171 developed a first major cerebrovascular event, but for the
multivariate Cox model analysis only 1,572 subjects and 152 events were
employed due to some exclusions for missing data. RESULTS: Systolic blood
pressure, indexes of respiratory function (protective), and physical
activity at work (protective) demonstrated significant predictive roles for
all ages and all lengths of follow-up considered. Other factors (presence
of arrhythmias, presence of arcus senilis, and skinfold thickness
[protective]), significantly contributed to the prediction, but in only
some models. Time-related changes in systolic blood pressure significantly
improved the prediction of cerebrovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: The
multivariate prediction performed in this report allowed the validation of
three risk factors (systolic blood pressure, respiratory function indexes,
and physical activity at work) whose predictive powers remain stable with
aging. The need for further studies specifically aimed at discriminating
hemorrhagic from thrombotic events is suggested.
ARTICLES
Multivariate prediction of the first major cerebrovascular event in an Italian population sample of middle-aged men followed up for 25 years
Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Rome, Italy.
This article has been cited by other articles:
 |
|
 |
|
  A. Hozawa, J. L. Billings, E. Shahar, T. Ohira, W. D. Rosamond, and A. R. Folsom Lung Function and Ischemic Stroke Incidence: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study Chest, December 1, 2006; 130(6): 1642 - 1649. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 T. Truelsen, E. Prescott, P. Lange, P. Schnohr, and G. Boysen Lung function and risk of fatal and non-fatal stroke. The Copenhagen City Heart Study Int. J. Epidemiol., February 1, 2001; 30(1): 145 - 151. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 T. Nakayama, C. Date, T. Yokoyama, N. Yoshiike, M. Yamaguchi, and H. Tanaka A 15.5-Year Follow-up Study of Stroke in a Japanese Provincial City: The Shibata Study Stroke, January 1, 1997; 28(1): 45 - 52. [Abstract] [Full Text]
|
|
|
|
|
|
J. Tuomilehto, D. Rastenyte, J. Sivenius, C. Sarti, P. Immonen-Raiha, E. Kaarsalo, K. Kuulasmaa, E. V. Narva, V. Salomaa, K. Salmi, et al. Ten-Year Trends in Stroke Incidence and Mortality in the FINMONICA Stroke Study Stroke, May 1, 1996; 27(5): 825 - 832. [Abstract] [Full Text]
|
|
|
|
|
|
D. Rastenyte, J. Tuomilehto, S. Domarkiene, Z. Cepaitis, and R. Reklaitiene Risk Factors for Death From Stroke in Middle-aged Lithuanian Men : Results From a 20-Year Prospective Study Stroke, April 1, 1996; 27(4): 672 - 676. [Abstract] [Full Text]
|
|
|
|
|
|
A. Menotti, D. R. Jacobs Jr, H. Blackburn, D. Kromhout, A. Nissinen, S. Nedeljkovic, R. Buzina, I. Mohacek, F. Seccareccia, S. Giampaoli, et al. Twenty-Five-Year Prediction of Stroke Deaths in the Seven Countries Study : The Role of Blood Pressure and Its Changes Stroke, March 1, 1996; 27(3): 381 - 387. [Abstract] [Full Text]
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. G. Wannamethee, A. G. Shaper, and S. Ebrahim Respiratory Function and Risk of Stroke Stroke, November 1, 1995; 26(11): 2004 - 2010. [Abstract] [Full Text]
|
|