Stroke, Vol 25, 352-357, Copyright © 1994 by American Heart Association
NA Taub, CD Wolfe, E Richardson and PG Burney
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to predict the
functional outcome at 1 year of first-time stroke patients aged younger
than 75 years in relation to the severity of stroke and demographic
characteristics. METHODS: Population registers in three districts of
southeast England were established in August 1989, with notification by
stroke registry field-workers, general practitioners, and rehabilitation
practitioners. Assessments were made using the Barthel index for activities
of daily living at the time of maximum impairment and at 3 and 12 months
after the stroke. RESULTS: Of 639 registered stroke patients, 392 without
previous disability survived and were assessed for disability at 3 months,
of whom 34 (9%) were severely disabled and 60 (15%) moderately disabled.
Initial incontinence was the best single predictor of disability with a
sensitivity of 60% and a specificity of 78%. Two hundred twenty-five
patients (35%) were eligible for 12-month follow-up; 11% had moderate or
severe disability, for which initial incontinence was the best predictor.
CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence from this study of an association between
demographic characteristics and the disability status of stroke survivors
in the medium term. Multivariable predictors of disability had little
advantage over incontinence within 24 hours of the stroke. The estimates of
the prevalence of disability from this large population-based study are
relevant when assessing the medium-term needs of stroke patients.
ARTICLES
Predicting the disability of first-time stroke sufferers at 1 year. 12- month follow-up of a population-based cohort in southeast England
Division of Community Health, United Medical School, Guy's Hospital, London, England.
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