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(Stroke. 2008;39:3137.)
© 2008 American Heart Association, Inc.

Original Contributions

Favorable Trends in the Incidence and Outcome in Stroke in Nondiabetic and Diabetic Subjects

Findings From the Northern Sweden MONICA Stroke Registry in 1985 to 2003

Aslak Rautio, MD; Mats Eliasson, MD, PhD Birgitta Stegmayr, PhD

From the Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine (A.R., M.E., B.S.), Umeå University, Sweden; and the Department of Medicine (M.E.), Sunderby Hospital, Luleå, Sweden.

Correspondence to Aslak Rautio, Läkarhuset Hermelinen, Sandviksgatan 60, SE-972 33 Luleå, Sweden. E-mail aslak.rautio{at}telia.com

Background and Purpose— Several studies indicate a declining case-fatality and mortality in stroke. Little is known about time trends in stroke for subjects with diabetes. The purpose of this study was to compare time trends in incidence, case-fatality and mortality for stroke patients with or without diabetes.

Methods— This study was based on the Northern Sweden MONICA Project Stroke registry during 1985 to 2003. 15 382 patients, aged 35 to 74 years, were included in the study. 11 605 had a first-ever stroke and 3777 had a recurrent stroke. In both men and women previously diagnosed diabetes was found in 22.8%.

Results— The incidence of stroke was 5 and 8 times higher in diabetic subjects than in nondiabetics, in men and women, respectively. Incidence of first-ever stroke decreased for nondiabetic men, probability value <0.001, and for diabetic women, probability value=0.012. Recurrent stroke incidence declined highly significant, probability value <0.001, in all but diabetic men. For diabetic women, the decrease in incidence in first and recurrent stroke was significantly greater than in nondiabetic women. Case-fatality and mortality in stroke declined for all groups except diabetic women with first-ever stroke. The time trends in case fatality and mortality did not differ significantly between nondiabetic and diabetic patients.

Conclusion— The incidence of stroke declined in both nondiabetic and diabetic subjects except for diabetic men and for nondiabetic women with first-ever stroke. Case-fatality in first-ever stroke declined for all but diabetic women. This led to a decreased mortality over the 19-year period for both groups. This is the first time that the decline in stroke incidence is reported in this MONICA population.

Key Words: time trends • incidence • mortality • diabetes • stroke

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