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(Stroke. 2009;40:1332.)
© 2009 American Heart Association, Inc.

Original Contributions

Clinical and Imaging Data at 5 Days as a Surrogate for 90-Day Outcome in Ischemic Stroke

Karen C. Johnston, MD, MSc; Kevin M. Barrett, MD; Yong Hong Ding, MD; Douglas P. Wagner, PhD for the ASAP Investigators

From the Departments of Neurology (K.C.J., K.M.B.) and Public Health Sciences (K.C.J., D.P.W.), University of Virginia, Charlottesville; and the Department of Radiology (Y.H.D.), Mayo Clinic, Rochester, NY.

Correspondence to Karen C. Johnston, MD, MSc, University of Virginia Health System, Department of Neurology, #800394, Charlottesville, VA 22908-0394. E-mail kj4v{at}virginia.edu

Background and Purpose— A simple, easily measured surrogate outcome measure for use in early treatment trials for acute ischemic stroke therapies would be highly valued. We hypothesized that day-5 NIH stroke scale score (NIHSS) and day-5 diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) volume would predict clinical outcome better than either alone and could be considered as a possible surrogate outcome in early phase acute stroke trials.

Methods— The prospective Acute Stroke Accurate Prediction (ASAP) trial included a prespecified subgroup evaluated for early outcome. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the prediction of modified Rankin (mRankin) of 0 or 1.

Results— A total of 204 subjects completed the substudy, and 116 (57%) had excellent outcome at 3 months. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for day-5 NIHSS predicting 3-month excellent outcome was 0.84; for DWI volume predicting outcome was 0.76, and for the multivariable model combining both was 0.84.

Conclusions— The results of the early outcome substudy of the ASAP trial suggest that early stroke severity and infarct volume measures are predictive of 3-month excellent outcome. In our data set the DWI volume does not add clinically relevant information in predicting 3-month outcome. Validation of these results is required.

Key Words: cerebral ischemia • prognosis • stroke outcome • models • statistical • surrogate

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