Abstract W MP37: Novel Prognostic Scores for Early Prediction of Outcome Following Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage
Background: Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a cerebrovascular emergency. Currently, clinicians have limited tools to estimate outcomes early after hospitalization. We aimed to develop novel prognostic scores using large cohorts of patients reflecting experience from different settings.
Methods: Logistic regression analysis was used to develop prediction models for mortality and unfavorable outcomes according to 3-month Glasgow outcome score after SAH based on readily obtained parameters at hospital admission. The development cohort was derived from 10 prospective studies involving 10936 patients in the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) repository. Model performance was assessed by bootstrap internal validation and by cross validation by omission of each of the 10 studies, using R2 statistic, Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), and calibration plots. Prognostic scores were developed from the regression coefficients.
Results: Predictor variable with the strongest prognostic strength was neurologic status (partial R2 = 12.03%), followed by age (1.91%), treatment modality (1.25%), Fisher grade of CT clot burden (0.65%), history of hypertension (0.37%), aneurysm size (0.12%) and aneurysm location (0.06%). These predictors were combined to develop 3 sets of hierarchical scores based on the coefficients of the regression models. The AUC at bootstrap validation was 0.79-0.80, and at cross validation was 0.64-0.85. Calibration plots demonstrated satisfactory agreement between predicted and observed probabilities of the outcomes.
Conclusions: The novel prognostic scores have good predictive ability and potential for broad application as they have been developed from prospective cohorts reflecting experience from different centers globally.
Author Disclosures: B. Jaja: None. H. Lingsma: None. E. Steyerberg: None. R. Macdonald: Research Grant; Modest; Canadian Institutes for Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Brain Aneurysm Foundation and Physicians Services Incorporated Foundation.. Ownership Interest; Significant; Edge Therapeutics, Inc.. Consultant/Advisory Board; Modest; Actelion Pharmaceuticals, Ltd.
- © 2015 by American Heart Association, Inc.