Validation of the 9-Point and 24-Point Hematoma Expansion Prediction Scores and Derivation of the PREDICT A/B Scores
Background and Purpose—Nine- and 24-point prediction scores have recently been published to predict hematoma expansion (HE) in acute intracerebral hemorrhage. We sought to validate these scores and perform an independent analysis of HE predictors.
Methods—We retrospectively studied 301 primary or anticoagulation-associated intracerebral hemorrhage patients presenting <6 hours post ictus prospectively enrolled in the Predicting Hematoma Growth and Outcome in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Using Contrast Bolus Computed Tomography (PREDICT) study. Patients underwent baseline computed tomography angiography and 24-hour noncontrast computed tomography follow-up for HE analysis. Discrimination and calibration of the 9- and 24-point scores was assessed. Independent predictors of HE were identified using multivariable regression and incorporated into the PREDICT A/B scores, which were then compared with existing scores.
Results—The 9- and 24-point HE scores demonstrated acceptable discrimination for HE>6 mL or 33% and >6 mL, respectively (area under the curve of 0.706 and 0.755, respectively). The 24-point score demonstrated appropriate calibration in the PREDICT cohort (χ2 statistic, 11.5; P=0.175), whereas the 9-point score demonstrated poor calibration (χ2 statistic, 34.3; P<0.001). Independent HE predictors included spot sign number, time from onset, warfarin use or international normalized ratio >1.5, Glasgow Coma Scale, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and were included in PREDICT A/B scores. PREDICT A showed improved discrimination compared with both existing scores, whereas performance of PREDICT B varied by definition of expansion.
Conclusion—The 9- and 24-point expansion scores demonstrate acceptable discrimination in an independent multicenter cohort; however, calibration was suboptimal for the 9-point score. The PREDICT A score showed improved discrimination for HE prediction but requires independent validation.
- Received April 28, 2015.
- Revision received August 16, 2015.
- Accepted August 31, 2015.
- © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.